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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
I'd like you to imagine the world anew.
[AI] 我想让你重新想象这个世界。
I'd like to show you some maps.
[AI] 我想给你看一些地图。
which have been drawn by Ben Hennig.
[AI] 这是本·亨尼格画的。
of the planet in a way
[AI] 从某种程度上说是地球的一部分
that most of you will never have seen the planet depicted before.
[AI] 你们中的大多数人以前从未见过这颗行星。
Here's an image that you're very familiar with.
[AI] 这是一张你非常熟悉的图片。
I'm old enough that I was actually born before we saw this image.
[AI] 我已经足够大了，在我们看到这张照片之前我就已经出生了。
Apparently some of my first words were "moona. moona."
[AI] 显然，我的第一句话是“月亮，月亮。”
but I think that's my mom having a particular fantasy
[AI] 但我想那是我妈妈有一个特别的幻想
about what her baby boy could see
[AI] 关于她的小男孩能看到什么
on the flickering black and white TV screen.
[AI] 在闪烁的黑白电视屏幕上。
It's only been a few centuries
[AI] 才几个世纪
since we've actually. most of us. thought of our planet as spherical.
[AI] 因为我们实际上已经。我们大多数人。认为我们的星球是球形的。
When we first saw these images in the 1960s.
[AI] 当我们在20世纪60年代第一次看到这些图像时。
the world was changing at an incredible rate.
[AI] 世界正在以惊人的速度变化。
In my own little discipline of human geography.
[AI] 在我自己的人文地理小学科里。
a cartographer called Waldo Tobler
[AI] 一个叫沃尔多·托布勒的制图员
was drawing new maps of the planet.
[AI] 正在绘制新的行星地图。
and these maps have now spread.
[AI] 这些地图现在已经扩散开来。
and I'm going to show you one of them now.
[AI] 我现在要给你看一个。
This map is a map of the world.
[AI] 这张地图是世界地图。
but it's a map which looks to you a little bit strange.
[AI] 但在你看来，这是一张有点奇怪的地图。
It's a map in which we stretched places.
[AI] 这是一张地图，我们在地图上标出了一些地方。
so that those areas which contain many people are drawn larger.
[AI] 因此，包含许多人的区域被画得更大。
and those areas. like the Sahara and the Himalayas.
[AI] 以及这些领域。像撒哈拉沙漠和喜马拉雅山脉。
in which there are few people. have been shrunk away.
[AI] 那里的人很少。已经缩小了。
Everybody on the planet is given an equal amount of space.
[AI] 地球上的每个人都有同等的空间。
The cities are shown shining bright.
[AI] 城市呈现出明亮的光芒。
The lines are showing you submarine cables and trade routes.
[AI] 这些线路向你展示了海底电缆和贸易路线。
And there's one particular line that goes from the Chinese port of Dalian
[AI] 还有一条特别的线路从中国的大连港出发
through past Singapore.
[AI] 经过新加坡。
through the Suez Canal.
[AI] 穿过苏伊士运河。
through the Mediterranean and round to Rotterdam.
[AI] 穿过地中海，绕到鹿特丹。
And it's showing you the route
[AI] 它会告诉你路线
of what was the world's largest ship just a year ago.
[AI] 就在一年前，世界上最大的船只。
a ship which was taking so many containers of goods
[AI] 一艘载着这么多集装箱货物的船
that when they were unloaded.
[AI] 当他们卸货时。
if the lorries had all gone in convoy. they would have been 100 kilometers long.
[AI] 如果所有的卡车都护送过去的话。它们可能有100公里长。
This is how our world is now connected.
[AI] 这就是我们的世界现在的联系方式。
This is the quantity of stuff we are now moving around the world.
[AI] 这是我们现在在世界各地移动的东西的数量。
just on one ship. on one voyage.
[AI] 就在一艘船上。一次航行。
in five weeks.
[AI] 五周后。
We've lived in cities for a very long time.
[AI] 我们在城市生活了很长时间。
but most of us didn't live in cities.
[AI] 但我们大多数人都不住在城市里。
This is Çatalhöyük. one of the world's first cities.
[AI] 这是圣塔勒赫尤克，世界上最早的城市之一。
At its peak 9.000 years ago.
[AI] 在9000年前的巅峰时期。
people had to walk over the roofs of others' houses to get to their home.
[AI] 人们不得不穿过别人的屋顶才能到家。
If you look carefully at the map of the city.
[AI] 如果你仔细看城市地图。
you'll see it has no streets.
[AI] 你会看到它没有街道。
because streets are something we invented.
[AI] 因为街道是我们发明的。
The world changes.
[AI] 世界在变化。
It changes by trial and error.
[AI] 它通过反复试验而改变。
We work out slowly and gradually
[AI] 我们慢慢地、逐渐地锻炼
how to live in better ways.
[AI] 如何以更好的方式生活。
And the world has changed incredibly quickly most recently.
[AI] 最近世界发生了难以置信的变化。
It's only within the last six. seven. or eight generations
[AI] 只是在最近六个月内。七还是八代
that we have actually realized that we are a species.
[AI] 我们已经意识到我们是一个物种。
It's only within the last few decades
[AI] 这只是在过去几十年内
that a map like this could be drawn.
[AI] 这样的地图可以画出来。
Again. the underlying map is the map of world population.
[AI] 再一次下面的地图是世界人口地图。
but over it. you're seeing arrows showing how we spread out of Africa
[AI] 但这一切都结束了。你看到的箭头显示了我们是如何走出非洲的
with dates showing you where we think we arrived
[AI] 日期告诉你我们到达的地点
at particular times.
[AI] 在特定的时间。
I have to redraw this map every few months.
[AI] 我每隔几个月就得重新绘制这张地图。
because somebody makes a discovery that a particular date was wrong.
[AI] 因为有人发现某个日期错了。
We are learning about ourselves at an incredible speed.
[AI] 我们正在以惊人的速度了解自己。
And we're changing.
[AI] 我们正在改变。
A lot of change is gradual.
[AI] 很多变化是渐进的。
It's accretion.
[AI] 这是吸积。
We don't notice the change
[AI] 我们没有注意到变化
because we only have short lives.
[AI] 因为我们只有短暂的生命。
70. 80. if you're lucky 90 years.
[AI] 70. 80. 如果你幸运90年。
This graph is showing you
[AI] 这张图表显示的是
the annual rate of population growth in the world.
[AI] 世界人口年增长率。
It was very low until around about 1850.
[AI] 大约在1850年以前，气温一直很低。
and then the rate of population growth
[AI] 然后是人口增长率
began to rise
[AI] 开始上升
so that around the time I was born.
[AI] 所以在我出生的时候。
when we first saw those images from the moon of our planet.
[AI] 当我们第一次从我们星球的卫星上看到这些图像时。
our global population was growing at two percent a year.
[AI] 我们的全球人口正以每年2%的速度增长。
If it had carried on growing at two percent a year
[AI] 如果它继续以每年2%的速度增长
for just another couple of centuries.
[AI] 再过几个世纪。
the entire planet would be covered
[AI] 整个星球都将被覆盖
with a seething mass of human bodies
[AI] 有着一大堆沸腾的人体
all touching each other.
[AI] 所有的人都互相接触。
And people were scared.
[AI] 人们都很害怕。
They were scared of population growth
[AI] 他们害怕人口增长
and what they called "the population bomb" in 1968.
[AI] 1968年他们称之为“人口炸弹”。
But then. if you look at the end of the graph.
[AI] 但是后来。如果你看图表的末尾。
the growth began to slow.
[AI] 增长开始放缓。
The decade --
[AI] 十年--
the '70s. the '80s. the '90s. the noughties.
[AI] 70年代。80年代。90年代。世纪初。
and in this decade. even faster --
[AI] 在这十年里。更快--
our population growth is slowing.
[AI] 我们的人口增长正在放缓。
Our planet is stabilizing.
[AI] 我们的星球正在稳定。
We are heading towards nine. 10. or 11 billion people
[AI] 我们快九点了。10.或110亿人
by the end of the century.
[AI] 到本世纪末。
Within that change. you can see tumult.
[AI] 在这一变化范围内。你可以看到骚动。
You can see the Second World War.
[AI] 你可以看到第二次世界大战。
You can see the pandemic in 1918 from influenza.
[AI] 你可以从流感中看到1918年的大流行。
You can see the great Chinese famine.
[AI] 你可以看到中国的大饥荒。
These are the events we tend to concentrate on.
[AI] 这些是我们倾向于关注的事件。
We tend to concentrate on the terrible events in the news.
[AI] 我们倾向于关注新闻中的可怕事件。
We don't tend to concentrate on the gradual change
[AI] 我们不倾向于关注渐进的变化
and the good news stories.
[AI] 还有好消息。
We worry about people.
[AI] 我们担心人。
We worry about how many people there are.
[AI] 我们担心有多少人。
We worry about how you can get away from people.
[AI] 我们担心的是你怎样才能远离人们。
But this is the map of the world changed again to make area large.
[AI] 但这是世界地图再次改变，使面积变大。
the further away people are from each area.
[AI] 离每个地区越远的人就越多。
So if you want to know where to go to get away from everybody.
[AI] 所以如果你想知道去哪里远离所有人。
here's the best places to go.
[AI] 这里是最好的去处。
And every year. these areas get bigger.
[AI] 每年。这些区域越来越大。
because every year. we are coming off the land globally.
[AI] 因为每年。我们正在全球范围内走出这片土地。
We are moving into the cities.
[AI] 我们正在迁入城市。
We are packing in more densely.
[AI] 我们正在更密集地包装。
There are wolves again in Europe.
[AI] 欧洲又有狼了。
and the wolves are moving west across the continent.
[AI] 狼群正在穿越大陆向西移动。
Our world is changing.
[AI] 我们的世界正在改变。
You have worries.
[AI] 你有烦恼。
This is a map showing where the water falls on our planet.
[AI] 这是一张地图，显示了水在我们星球上的下落。
We now know that.
[AI] 我们现在知道了。
And you can look at where Çatalhöyük was.
[AI] 你可以看看切塔尔胡克在哪里。
where three continents meet. Africa. Asia. and Europe.
[AI] 三大洲交汇的地方。非洲亚洲还有欧洲。
and you can see there are a large number of people living there
[AI] 你可以看到有很多人住在那里
in areas with very little water.
[AI] 在水很少的地区。
And you can see areas in which there is a great deal of rainfall as well.
[AI] 你也可以看到有大量降雨的地区。
And we can get a bit more sophisticated.
[AI] 我们可以变得更复杂一些。
Instead of making the map be shaped by people.
[AI] 而不是让地图由人来塑造。
we can shape the map by water.
[AI] 我们可以用水来塑造这张地图。
and then we can change it every month
[AI] 然后我们可以每个月更换一次
to show the amount of water
[AI] 显示水量
falling on every small part of the globe.
[AI] 落在地球的每一个角落。
And you see the monsoons moving around the planet.
[AI] 你可以看到季风在地球上移动。
and the planet almost appears to have a heartbeat.
[AI] 这颗行星似乎有心跳。
And all of this only became possible
[AI] 而这一切只会成为可能
within my lifetime
[AI] 在我有生之年
to see this is where we are living.
[AI] 看看这就是我们生活的地方。
We have enough water.
[AI] 我们有足够的水。
This is a map of where we grow our food in the world.
[AI] 这是一张我们在世界上种植食物的地图。
This is the areas that we will rely on most for rice and maize and corn.
[AI] 这是我们稻米、玉米和玉米最依赖的地区。
People worry that there won't be enough food. but we know.
[AI] 人们担心没有足够的食物。但我们知道。
if we just ate less meat and fed less of the crops to animals.
[AI] 如果我们只是少吃肉，少给动物喂庄稼。
there is enough food for everybody
[AI] 每个人都有足够的食物
as long as we think of ourselves as one group of people.
[AI] 只要我们把自己看成是一群人。
And we also know
[AI] 我们也知道
about what we do
[AI] 关于我们的工作
so terribly badly nowadays.
[AI] 现在情况非常糟糕。
You will have seen this map of the world before.
[AI] 你以前会看过这张世界地图的。
This is the map produced by taking satellite images.
[AI] 这是通过拍摄卫星图像制作的地图。
if you remember those satellites around the planet
[AI] 如果你还记得那些环绕地球的卫星
in the very first slide I showed.
[AI] 在我展示的第一张幻灯片中。
and producing an image of what the Earth looks like at night.
[AI] 制作出地球在夜间的样子。
When you normally see that map.
[AI] 当你通常看到那张地图的时候。
on a normal map. the kind of map that most of you will be used to.
[AI] 在法线贴图上。你们大多数人都会习惯的那种地图。
you think you are seeing a map of where people live.
[AI] 你以为你看到的是一张人们居住的地图。
Where the lights are shining up is where people live.
[AI] 灯火通明的地方就是人们居住的地方。
But here. on this image of the world.
[AI] 但是在这里。关于这个世界的形象。
remember we've stretched the map again.
[AI] 记住我们又把地图拉长了。
Everywhere has the same density of people on this map.
[AI] 在这张地图上，每个地方的人口密度都是一样的。
If an area doesn't have people.
[AI] 如果一个地区没有人。
we've shrunk it away
[AI] 我们把它缩小了
to make it disappear.
[AI] 让它消失。
So we're showing everybody
[AI] 所以我们给大家看
with equal prominence.
[AI] 同样突出。
Now. the lights no longer show you where people are.
[AI] 现在灯光不再显示人们在哪里。
because people are everywhere.
[AI] 因为到处都是人。
Now the lights on the map.
[AI] 现在地图上的灯亮了。
the lights in London. the lights in Cairo. the lights in Tokyo.
[AI] 伦敦的灯光。开罗的灯光。东京的灯光。
the lights on the Eastern Seaboard of the United States.
[AI] 美国东海岸的灯光。
the lights show you where people live
[AI] 灯光告诉你人们住在哪里
who are so profligate with energy
[AI] 谁如此挥霍精力
that they can afford
[AI] 他们能负担得起的
to spend money
[AI] 花钱
powering lights to shine up into the sky.
[AI] 为灯光提供动力，使其照亮天空。
so satellites can draw an image like this.
[AI] 所以卫星可以画出这样的图像。
And the areas that are dark on the map
[AI] 以及地图上的黑暗区域
are either areas where people do not have access to that much energy.
[AI] 这两个地区的人们都无法获得那么多的能源。
or areas where people do.
[AI] 或者是人们喜欢的地方。
but they have learned to stop shining the light up into the sky.
[AI] 但是他们已经学会了停止把光照向天空。
And if I could show you this map animated over time.
[AI] 如果我能给你看这张随时间变化的动画地图。
you would see that Tokyo has actually become darker.
[AI] 你会看到东京实际上变得更黑了。
because ever since the tsunami in Japan.
[AI] 因为自从日本发生海啸以来。
Japan has had to rely on a quarter less electricity
[AI] 日本不得不减少四分之一的电力依赖
because it turned the nuclear power stations off.
[AI] 因为它关闭了核电站。
And the world didn't end.
[AI] 世界并没有结束。
You just shone less light
[AI] 你只是照得不那么亮
up into the sky.
[AI] 飞向天空。
There are a huge number
[AI] 有很多
of good news stories in the world.
[AI] 世界上的好消息。
Infant mortality is falling
[AI] 婴儿死亡率正在下降
and has been falling at an incredible rate.
[AI] 而且一直以令人难以置信的速度下降。
A few years ago.
[AI] 几年前。
the number of babies dying in their first year of life in the world
[AI] 世界上第一年死亡的婴儿数量
fell by five percent in just one year.
[AI] 仅一年内就下降了5%。
More children are going to school
[AI] 更多的孩子正在上学
and learning to read and write
[AI] 学习阅读和写作
and getting connected to the Internet
[AI] 以及连接到互联网
and going on to go to university
[AI] 然后去上大学
than ever before at an incredible rate.
[AI] 以前所未有的速度。
and the highest number of young people going to university in the world
[AI] 也是世界上上上大学人数最多的年轻人
are women. not men.
[AI] 她们是女人。不是男人。
I can give you good news story after good news story
[AI] 我可以给你一个又一个好消息
about what is getting better in the planet.
[AI] 关于地球上什么正在变得更好。
but we tend to concentrate
[AI] 但我们倾向于集中精力
on the bad news that is immediate.
[AI] 马上就有坏消息了。
Rebecca Solnit. I think. put it brilliantly.
[AI] 丽贝卡·索尼特。我想。说得很精彩。
when she explained: "The accretion of incremental. imperceptible changes
[AI] 当她解释说：“逐渐增加的，难以察觉的变化
which can constitute progress and which render our era
[AI] 它可以构成进步，也可以使我们的时代进步
dramatically different from the past" --
[AI] 与过去大不相同”--
the past was much more stable --
[AI] 过去要稳定得多--
"a contrast obscured by the undramatic nature of gradual transformation.
[AI] 这种对比被逐渐转变的平淡无奇性质所掩盖。
punctuated by occasional tumult."
[AI] 偶尔有骚动。"
Occasionally. terrible things happen.
[AI] 偶尔地可怕的事情发生了。
You are shown those terrible things
[AI] 你看到了那些可怕的事情
on the news every night of the week.
[AI] 每周每晚都有新闻报道。
You are not told about the population slowing down.
[AI] 没有人告诉你人口正在放缓。
You are not told about the world becoming more connected.
[AI] 没有人告诉你世界变得越来越紧密。
You are not told about the incredible improvements in understanding.
[AI] 没有人告诉你在理解上有了惊人的进步。
You are not told about how we are learning to begin
[AI] 没有人告诉你我们是如何开始学习的
to waste less and consume less.
[AI] 减少浪费，减少消耗。
This is my last map.
[AI] 这是我最后一张地图。
On this map. we have taken the seas and the oceans out.
[AI] 在这张地图上。我们把海洋和海洋都带走了。
Now you are just looking
[AI] 现在你只是看看
at about 7.4 billion people with the map drawn in proportion to those people.
[AI] 大约有74亿人按照这些人的比例绘制地图。
You're looking at over a billion in China.
[AI] 中国有超过10亿的人口。
and you can see the largest city in the world in China.
[AI] 你可以在中国看到世界上最大的城市。
but you do not know its name.
[AI] 但是你不知道它的名字。
You can see that India
[AI] 你可以看到印度
is in the center of this world.
[AI] 在这个世界的中心。
You can see that Europe is on the edge.
[AI] 你可以看到欧洲处于边缘。
And we in Exeter today
[AI] 我们今天在埃克塞特
are on the far edge of the planet.
[AI] 都在地球的边缘。
We are on a tiny scrap of rock off Europe
[AI] 我们在欧洲的一小块岩石上
which contains less than one percent of the world's adults.
[AI] 其中不到全世界成年人的百分之一。
and less than half a percent of the world's children.
[AI] 世界上只有不到百分之半的儿童。
We are living in a stabilizing world. an urbanizing world.
[AI] 我们生活在一个稳定的世界。一个城市化的世界。
an aging world.
[AI] 一个老龄化的世界。
a connecting world.
[AI] 一个连接的世界。
There are many. many things to be frightened about.
[AI] 有很多。有很多事情值得害怕。
but there is no need for us to fear each other as much as we do.
[AI] 但是我们没有必要像现在这样害怕对方。
and we need to see that we are now living in a new world.
[AI] 我们需要看到我们现在生活在一个新的世界。
Thank you very much.
[AI] 非常感谢你。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）