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【TED】少数科技公司每天控制10亿大脑

 

I want you to imagine 我想让你们想象 walking into a room, 走进一个房间, a control room with a bunch of people, 这个房间是个控制室, 里面有一群人,大概上百人, a hundred people, hunched over a desk with little dials, 都在有控制器的桌子旁伏案工作, and that that control room 而那间控制室 will shape the thoughts and feelings 会决定上亿人的 of a billion people. 思想和情感。 This might sound like science fiction, 这听上去像是科幻小说, but this actually exists 但是今天,此刻, right now, today. 它真真切切地发生着。 I know because I used to be in one of those control rooms. 因为我就在这种控制室工作过。 I was a design ethicist at Google, 我曾是谷歌的设计伦理学家, where I studied how do you ethically steer people's thoughts? 在那里我曾研究过如何 名正言顺地左右人们的想法。 Because what we don't talk about is how the handful of people 因为我们不常讨论屈指可数的 working at a handful of technology companies 几家科技公司的那么几个人, through their choices will steer what a billion people are thinking today. 是如何通过他们的选择 来影响现今上亿人的思想。 Because when you pull out your phone 因为当你拿出手机, and they design how this works or what's on the feed, 他们将设计下一步会如何 以及应该推送哪些新闻, it's scheduling little blocks of time in our minds. 就像在我们的脑子里设定出了小小的模块。 If you see a notification, it schedules you to have thoughts 如果你看到一个消息, 这会促使你形成 that maybe you didn't intend to have. 或许原本没有的想法。 If you swipe over that notification, 如果你忽略了这个消息, it schedules you into spending a little bit of time 他们还会设计让你在原本 getting sucked into something 不关注的东西上 that maybe you didn't intend to get sucked into. 多花些时间。 When we talk about technology, 当我们谈到科技时, we tend to talk about it as this blue sky opportunity. 我们倾向于把它描绘成 充满机遇的蓝图。 It could go any direction. 天马行空,任你想象。 And I want to get serious for a moment 而我想严肃地告诉你们, and tell you why it's going in a very specific direction. 为什么它选择了某个特定的方向。 Because it's not evolving randomly. 因为科技的发展不是随机的。 There's a hidden goal driving the direction 在我们创造的所有科技背后 of all of the technology we make, 都隐藏着明确的目标, and that goal is the race for our attention. 那个目标就是追求我们的注意力。 Because every news site, 因为所有新的网站—— TED, elections, politicians, TED演讲,选举,政客, games, even meditation apps 游戏,甚至是冥想软件—— have to compete for one thing, 都需要为同一种东西彼此竞争, which is our attention, 那就是我们的注意力, and there's only so much of it. 而注意力是有限的。 And the best way to get people's attention 获得人们注意力的最佳办法 is to know how someone's mind works. 就是了解我们的大脑是如何运作的。 And there's a whole bunch of persuasive techniques 大学时我曾在一个叫做 说服性技术实验室的地方 that I learned in college at a lab called the Persuasive Technology Lab 学到了许多说服别人的技巧, to get people's attention. 来获取人们的注意力。 A simple example is YouTube. 一个简单的例子就是YouTube。 YouTube wants to maximize how much time you spend. YouTube希望你在 它上面花的时间越多越好。 And so what do they do? 那么他们做了什么呢? They autoplay the next video. 他们增加了自动播放下一个视频的功能。 And let's say that works really well. 效果应该说很不错。 They're getting a little bit more of people's time. 人们在上面花费了更多的时间。 Well, if you're Netflix, you look at that and say, 如果你在Netflix工作, 看到他们这么做之后会觉得, well, that's shrinking my market share, 这会减少我的市场份额, so I'm going to autoplay the next episode. 我也要自动播放下一集。 But then if you're Facebook, 但如果你是Facebook的员工, you say, that's shrinking all of my market share, 你会说,这减少了我的市场份额, so now I have to autoplay all the videos in the newsfeed 所以我会在你点击播放按键前 before waiting for you to click play. 自动播放新闻推送中的所有视频。 So the internet is not evolving at random. 所以网络不是随机发展的。 The reason it feels like it's sucking us in the way it is 我们感觉上瘾的原因在于 is because of this race for attention. 我们的注意力成了被竞争的对象。 We know where this is going. 我们知道这样发展下去会如何。 Technology is not neutral, 科技并非中性的, and it becomes this race to the bottom of the brain stem 它变成了那些可以深入了解 of who can go lower to get it. 人脑运作的人之间的竞争。 Let me give you an example of Snapchat. 给你们举个Snapchat的例子。 If you didn't know, Snapchat is the number one way 有人可能不太了解, Snapchat是在美国青少年中 that teenagers in the United States communicate. 排名第一的交流方式。 So if you're like me, and you use text messages to communicate, 如果你们和我一样用短信交流, Snapchat is that for teenagers, 那么Snapchat就是青少年的短信, and there's, like, a hundred million of them that use it. 有近一亿人在使用。 And they invented a feature called Snapstreaks, 他们发明了一种叫Snapstreaks的功能, which shows the number of days in a row 它会展示两个人 that two people have communicated with each other. 持续互动的天数。 In other words, what they just did 换句话说,他们所做的 is they gave two people something they don't want to lose. 就是给了两个人不想失去的记录。 Because if you're a teenager, and you have 150 days in a row, 因为如果你是一个青少年, 连续交流了150天, you don't want that to go away. 你不想失去这些东西。 And so think of the little blocks of time that that schedules in kids' minds. 试想一下孩子脑子里 已被设定好的时间模块。 This isn't theoretical: when kids go on vacation, 这不是理论空谈,而是事实; 当孩子们去度假时, it's been shown they give their passwords to up to five other friends 即使他们不能使用 Snapstreaks,也会把密码 to keep their Snapstreaks going, 告诉至多五个朋友, even when they can't do it. 来帮助他把Snapstreaks接力下去。 And they have, like, 30 of these things, 他们要同时关注大约30件这种事情, and so they have to get through taking photos of just pictures or walls 所以每天他们就忙于拍拍画,拍拍墙, or ceilings just to get through their day. 拍拍天花板来消磨时间。 So it's not even like they're having real conversations. 这甚至不能被称为真正的交流。 We have a temptation to think about this 我们可能会这么想, as, oh, they're just using Snapchat 他们用Snapchat的方式 the way we used to gossip on the telephone. 就像我们曾经用电话聊八卦一样, It's probably OK. 应该是没问题的。 Well, what this misses is that in the 1970s, 但人们忽略了在上世纪七十年代, when you were just gossiping on the telephone, 当你们用电话聊八卦时, there wasn't a hundred engineers on the other side of the screen 在另一头并没有数百名工程师 who knew exactly how your psychology worked 准确知道你们的心理活动, and orchestrated you into a double bind with each other. 并精心策划着如何让你们加强联络。 Now, if this is making you feel a little bit of outrage, 如果这让你有些愤怒了, notice that that thought just comes over you. 请注意,你刚刚才意识到这点, Outrage is a really good way also of getting your attention, 愤怒也是获取你注意力的一种好方式。 because we don't choose outrage. 因为我们不会选择愤怒。 It happens to us. 它会自动发生在我们身上。 And if you're the Facebook newsfeed, 如果你负责Facebook的新闻推送, whether you'd want to or not, 信不信由你, you actually benefit when there's outrage. 人们愤怒的时候你会受益。 Because outrage doesn't just schedule a reaction 因为愤怒不仅仅是人们 in emotional time, space, for you. 在情感和空间上的一个反应。 We want to share that outrage with other people. 想要与人分享这份愤怒, So we want to hit share and say, 所以我们会按下分享键,然后说, "Can you believe the thing that they said?" “你能相信他们说的吗?” And so outrage works really well at getting attention, 而这种愤怒真的特别容易获得注意力, such that if Facebook had a choice between showing you the outrage feed 甚至于如果Facebook 可以在展示惹人愤怒的消息 and a calm newsfeed, 和一般的消息之间进行选择的话, they would want to show you the outrage feed, 他们会选择向你发布让你愤怒的消息, not because someone consciously chose that, 不是因为刻意的原因, but because that worked better at getting your attention. 只是那会更好的获得你的注意。 And the newsfeed control room is not accountable to us. 消息控制室不用对我们负责, It's only accountable to maximizing attention. 它只对最大化获得人们的注意力负责, It's also accountable, 鉴于广告的商业模型, because of the business model of advertising, 它也对可以花钱进入 for anybody who can pay the most to actually walk into the control room 控制室的人负责,他们可以要求说 and say, "That group over there, “那一组人,我想把 I want to schedule these thoughts into their minds." 这些东西灌输给他们。” So you can target, 所以你可以定位, you can precisely target a lie 你可以准确定位到 directly to the people who are most susceptible. 那些最易受到影响的人。 And because this is profitable, it's only going to get worse. 因为这有利可图, 所以只会变得越来越糟。 So I'm here today 今天我在这里(跟大家讲) because the costs are so obvious. 是因为代价已经太高了。 I don't know a more urgent problem than this, 我不知道还有什么问题比这更紧急的, because this problem is underneath all other problems. 因为这个问题隐藏在所有问题之中。 It's not just taking away our agency 它并不仅仅是剥夺了我们的注意力 to spend our attention and live the lives that we want, 和选择生活方式的自主权, it's changing the way that we have our conversations, 更是改变了我们进行交流的方式, it's changing our democracy, 改变了我们的民主意识, and it's changing our ability to have the conversations 改变了我们与他人交流, and relationships we want with each other. 维系关系的能力。 And it affects everyone, 这影响到了每个人, because a billion people have one of these in their pocket. 因为亿万人的口袋里 都装着这个东西(手机)。 So how do we fix this? 那么我们要如何解决这个问题呢? We need to make three radical changes 我们需要对科技和社会 to technology and to our society. 做三个大胆的突破。 The first is we need to acknowledge that we are persuadable. 首先,我们需要承认我们可以被说服。 Once you start understanding 一旦了解 that your mind can be scheduled into having little thoughts 我们是可以安排大脑去想一点其他事情, or little blocks of time that you didn't choose, 或无计划地占用一些时间, wouldn't we want to use that understanding 我们难道不能利用这点认识 and protect against the way that that happens? 来改变现状吗? I think we need to see ourselves fundamentally in a new way. 我认为我们需要 以全新的方式审视自己。 It's almost like a new period of human history, 就像是人类历史上的新篇章, like the Enlightenment, 就像启蒙运动, but almost a kind of self-aware Enlightenment, 但这是自省式的启蒙运动, that we can be persuaded, 意识到我们可以被说服影响, and there might be something we want to protect. 意识到有些东西需要我们去保护。 The second is we need new models and accountability systems 第二点是,我们需要新的 模型和责任系统, so that as the world gets better and more and more persuasive over time -- 以便让世界变得越来越好, 也越来越有影响力时—— because it's only going to get more persuasive -- 也就是更能说服我们时—— that the people in those control rooms 那些控制室里的人们 are accountable and transparent to what we want. 才会对我们负责,且行为对我们透明化。 The only form of ethical persuasion that exists 道德说服只有当 is when the goals of the persuader 说服和被说服者的 are aligned with the goals of the persuadee. 目标一致时才存在。 And that involves questioning big things, like the business model of advertising. 这就涉及到对热门举措的怀疑, 比如广告的商业模型。 Lastly, 最后, we need a design renaissance, 我们需要一次科技重塑, because once you have this view of human nature, 因为一旦你开始了解人的这种本性, that you can steer the timelines of a billion people -- 你就可以控制上亿人的时间—— just imagine, there's people who have some desire 想象一下,有些人有这样的欲望, about what they want to do and what they want to be thinking 他们想做什么, 他们想思考什么, and what they want to be feeling and how they want to be informed, 他们想感受什么, 他们想了解什么, and we're all just tugged into these other directions. 而我们被吸引到这些不同的方向。 And you have a billion people just tugged into all these different directions. 数亿人会跟随着这些不同的方向。 Well, imagine an entire design renaissance 试想一下一个完整的科技复兴 that tried to orchestrate the exact and most empowering 将会指导我们准确有效的 time-well-spent way for those timelines to happen. 分配时间。 And that would involve two things: 这包含两个方面: one would be protecting against the timelines 一是防止我们把时间花在 that we don't want to be experiencing, 在不想花的地方, the thoughts that we wouldn't want to be happening, 阻止我们产生不想形成的想法, so that when that ding happens, not having the ding that sends us away; 即便提示音响了, 我们也不会被牵着鼻子走; and the second would be empowering us to live out the timeline that we want. 二是让我们按照所期待的时间轨迹生活。 So let me give you a concrete example. 给你们举个实际的例子。 Today, let's say your friend cancels dinner on you, 今天,比如你的朋友 取消了和你共进晚餐, and you are feeling a little bit lonely. 你感到有些寂寞。 And so what do you do in that moment? 这一刻你会做什么呢? You open up Facebook. 你打开了Facebook。 And in that moment, 在那一刻, the designers in the control room want to schedule exactly one thing, 控制室里的设计者要做一件事, which is to maximize how much time you spend on the screen. 那就是要你盯着屏幕,时间越长越好。 Now, instead, imagine if those designers created a different timeline 现在想象一下, 如果设计者规划了另一条时间轴, that was the easiest way, using all of their data, 利用他们所有的数据, 用最简单的方法 to actually help you get out with the people that you care about? 帮你约出你关心的人呢? Just think, alleviating all loneliness in society, 试想如果消除社会中所有的孤单, if that was the timeline that Facebook wanted to make possible for people. 才是Facebook想要为人们实现的理想。 Or imagine a different conversation. 或试想另一个对话。 Let's say you wanted to post something supercontroversial on Facebook, 比方说你想要在Facebook上 发表备受争议的言论, which is a really important thing to be able to do, 能这么做是很重要的, to talk about controversial topics. 谈论争议性话题。 And right now, when there's that big comment box, 现在有一个巨大的评论栏, it's almost asking you, what key do you want to type? 它就像是在问你, 你想要输入什么东西? In other words, it's scheduling a little timeline of things 换句话说,它设定了你将要 you're going to continue to do on the screen. 继续在屏幕上做的事情。 And imagine instead that there was another button there saying, 试想如果有另外一个提问框跳出来问你, what would be most time well spent for you? 怎么花费时间最好? And you click "host a dinner." 你点击 “办个晚餐聚会” And right there underneath the item it said, 紧接着下面有个选项问道, "Who wants to RSVP for the dinner?" “谁想要去这个晚餐?” And so you'd still have a conversation about something controversial, 虽然你仍想对 有争议性的话题进行讨论, but you'd be having it in the most empowering place on your timeline, 但你的时间花在了最好的地方, which would be at home that night with a bunch of a friends over 晚上在家里和一群朋友 to talk about it. 讨论那个话题。 So imagine we're running, like, a find and replace 想象我们正在使用“查找并替代” 功能, on all of the timelines that are currently steering us 把所有那些正在促使我们 towards more and more screen time persuasively 花越来越多的时间在屏幕上的事情, and replacing all of those timelines 用我们在生活中的真实意愿 with what do we want in our lives. 来逐一替换掉。 It doesn't have to be this way. 事情本不必如此复杂。 Instead of handicapping our attention, 与阻碍我们的注意力相反, imagine if we used all of this data and all of this power 试想如果我们利用所有这些数据和功能, and this new view of human nature 加上对人类本性的全新认识, to give us a superhuman ability to focus 给我们以超人的能力来集中注意力, and a superhuman ability to put our attention to what we cared about 来关注我们应该关心的事, and a superhuman ability to have the conversations 来进行民主所需要的 that we need to have for democracy. 互动交流。 The most complex challenges in the world 世界上最复杂的挑战 require not just us to use our attention individually. 要求我们不仅独立的运用我们的注意力, They require us to use our attention and coordinate it together. 还要求我们同心协力。 Climate change is going to require that a lot of people 气候变化需要许多人 are being able to coordinate their attention 使用最有力的方式 in the most empowering way together. 彼此协作。 And imagine creating a superhuman ability to do that. 试想创造出这种超人能力会是什么情景。 Sometimes the world's most pressing and important problems 有时世界上最紧要,最关键的问题 are not these hypothetical future things that we could create in the future. 不是假象出来的未来事物。 Sometimes the most pressing problems 有时最紧要的东西 are the ones that are right underneath our noses, 恰恰是我们眼前的东西, the things that are already directing a billion people's thoughts. 是已经影响了上亿人思想的东西。 And maybe instead of getting excited about the new augmented reality 也许,与其对新兴的增强现实, and virtual reality and these cool things that could happen, 虚拟现实等炫酷玩物感到着迷, which are going to be susceptible to the same race for attention, 使得它们也会成为 注意力竞争中的一员, if we could fix the race for attention 我们不如改进亿万人口袋里 on the thing that's already in a billion people's pockets. 影响注意力的那个东西。 Maybe instead of getting excited 也许,我们与其对 about the most exciting new cool fancy education apps, 新潮炫酷的教育软件感到兴奋, we could fix the way kids' minds are getting manipulated 还不如想想如何拯救那些已被操纵, into sending empty messages back and forth. 来回发送空洞消息的孩子们。 (Applause) (掌声) Maybe instead of worrying 也许,我们与其 about hypothetical future runaway artificial intelligences 对假象的未来中的最大主角, that are maximizing for one goal, 人工智能感到担心, we could solve the runaway artificial intelligence 不如解决当下就存在的 that already exists right now, 人工智能问题, which are these newsfeeds maximizing for one thing. 就是那些争夺注意力的新闻推送。 It's almost like instead of running away to colonize new planets, 这就好比与其逃跑和殖民新的星球, we could fix the one that we're already on. 我们可以解决现在所在星球的问题。 (Applause) (掌声) Solving this problem 解决这个问题 is critical infrastructure for solving every other problem. 是解决其他问题的关键所在。 There's nothing in your life or in our collective problems 在你生命之中或是我们共同的问题中, that does not require our ability to put our attention where we care about. 没有一件事不需要我们 把注意力放到我们关心的事情上去。 At the end of our lives, 归根到底,在一生中, all we have is our attention and our time. 我们共同拥有的就是注意力和时间。 What will be time well spent for ours? 时间会被我们自己充分利用吗? Thank you. 谢谢大家。 (Applause) (掌声) Chris Anderson: Tristan, thank you. Hey, stay up here a sec. 克里斯•安德森: Tristan,谢谢你,请留步。 First of all, thank you. 首先,谢谢你。 I know we asked you to do this talk on pretty short notice, 我知道我们很晚才通知你要做这次演讲, and you've had quite a stressful week 这周准备这个演讲, getting this thing together, so thank you. 压力确实很大,再次谢谢你。 Some people listening might say, what you complain about is addiction, 有些听众可能会说, 你抱怨的不就是上瘾吗, and all these people doing this stuff, for them it's actually interesting. 而对于真正这么做的人来说, 他们确确实实是觉得有趣的。 All these design decisions 所有这些设计策划 have built user content that is fantastically interesting. 使得用户获取了十分有趣的内容。 The world's more interesting than it ever has been. 这个世界从未如此有意思过。 What's wrong with that? 这有什么问题吗? Tristan Harris: I think it's really interesting. 特里斯坦•哈里斯: 我认为这确实有趣。 One way to see this is if you're just YouTube, for example, 换个角度思考一下 举个例子,还用YouTube, you want to always show the more interesting next video. 你总是想让下一个视频更有趣。 You want to get better and better at suggesting that next video, 你想要在建议下一个视频 这件事上越做越好, but even if you could propose the perfect next video 但即使你可以建议一个 that everyone would want to watch, 所有人都想要观看的完美视频, it would just be better and better at keeping you hooked on the screen. 其实只是在吸引人们 盯住屏幕这件事上越来越好。 So what's missing in that equation 所以这个等式缺失的是 is figuring out what our boundaries would be. 知道我们的极限在哪里。 You would want YouTube to know something about, say, falling asleep. 比如,你想要让YouTube对 入睡这样的事儿有所了解。 The CEO of Netflix recently said, Netflix的CEO最近说过, "our biggest competitors are Facebook, YouTube and sleep." “我们最大的对手是Facebook, YouTube和睡眠。” And so what we need to recognize is that the human architecture is limited 所以我们需要认识到 人体本身是有极限的, and that we have certain boundaries or dimensions of our lives 在我们的生活中有某些界限或方面 that we want to be honored and respected, 是要得到尊重的, and technology could help do that. 而科技是可以帮助我们实现这些的。 (Applause) (掌声) CA: I mean, could you make the case CA:你是否可以说明一下 that part of the problem here is that we've got a naïve model of human nature? 我们是不是对人性的认识太天真了? So much of this is justified in terms of human preference, 从人类偏好来看, 这些东西是可以合理化的, where we've got these algorithms that do an amazing job 我们有这些极其棒的算法 of optimizing for human preference, 为人类的偏好优化上做着贡献, but which preference? 但是,是什么偏好呢? There's the preferences of things that we really care about 有我们确实关心的 when we think about them 偏好, versus the preferences of what we just instinctively click on. 也有我们只是下意识点击的偏好。 If we could implant that more nuanced view of human nature in every design, 如果我们在每个设计中 多加一点对人类本性的关注, would that be a step forward? 这会不会是一种进步呢? TH: Absolutely. I mean, I think right now TH:那是肯定的。我认为现在 it's as if all of our technology is basically only asking our lizard brain 科技基本上只是利用我们的下意识, what's the best way to just impulsively get you to do 找到最好的方式让我们自然而然地 the next tiniest thing with your time, 对微不足道的事上瘾, instead of asking you in your life 而不是问我们在生活中 what we would be most time well spent for you? 时间要如何花费才最有意义。 What would be the perfect timeline that might include something later, 什么才是完美的时间安排, 这可能包括后面的事情, would be time well spent for you here at TED in your last day here? 例如你利用在这儿的最后一天 参加TED,是很好的利用了时间吗? CA: So if Facebook and Google and everyone said to us first up, CA:如果Facebook和Google 或任何一个人上来对我们说, "Hey, would you like us to optimize for your reflective brain “嘿,你想要我们为你的思考进行优化, or your lizard brain? You choose." 还是优化你的下意识?你来选择。” TH: Right. That would be one way. Yes. TH:是的。这可能是个方法。 CA: You said persuadability, that's an interesting word to me CA:你说到可说服性, 对我来说这个词很有趣, because to me there's two different types of persuadability. 因为在我看来有两种不同的可说服性。 There's the persuadability that we're trying right now 有一种可说服性是我们现在正尝试的, of reason and thinking and making an argument, 关于推理,思考以及做出论证, but I think you're almost talking about a different kind, 但是我觉得你在谈论另一种, a more visceral type of persuadability, 更加内在的本能的一种可说服性, of being persuaded without even knowing that you're thinking. 即在不经思考下就被说服了。 TH: Exactly. The reason I care about this problem so much is TH:是的。我十分关注 这个问题的原因是, I studied at a lab called the Persuasive Technology Lab at Stanford 我曾在斯坦福的 说服性技术实验室学习, that taught [students how to recognize] exactly these techniques. 那里就是教学生这些技巧。 There's conferences and workshops that teach people all these covert ways 那有专门的论坛和讨论会, 教授人们如何用隐蔽的方式 of getting people's attention and orchestrating people's lives. 来获得人们的注意力, 从而策划人们的生活。 And it's because most people don't know that that exists 正因为大部分人不知道它的存在, that this conversation is so important. 才使得这个演讲如此重要。 CA: Tristan, you and I, we both know so many people from all these companies. CA:Tristan,咱们都认识 许多来自这些公司的人。 There are actually many here in the room, 他们当中许多人也在这里, and I don't know about you, but my experience of them 我不知道你的想法, 但是就我的经验而言, is that there is no shortage of good intent. 他们是心存善意的。 People want a better world. 大家都向往更美好的世界。 They are actually -- they really want it. 他们确实是这样想的。 And I don't think anything you're saying is that these are evil people. 我不认为你的意思是 这些人都是坏人。 It's a system where there's these unintended consequences 只不过是这个系统产生了不经意的结果, that have really got out of control -- 超出了我们的控制范围—— TH: Of this race for attention. TH:在争夺注意力 这件事儿上,没错儿。 It's the classic race to the bottom when you have to get attention, 当你要获得众人的注意力时, 便成了经典的厮杀, and it's so tense. 而且特别激烈残忍。 The only way to get more is to go lower on the brain stem, 取得更多注意的唯一办法, 只有深入大脑, to go lower into outrage, to go lower into emotion, 深入愤怒,深入情感, to go lower into the lizard brain. 深入本性。 CA: Well, thank you so much for helping us all get a little bit wiser about this. CA:感谢你帮助我们 对这个问题有了更深的认识。 Tristan Harris, thank you. TH: Thank you very much. 特里斯坦•哈里斯,谢谢你。 TH:非常感谢。 (Applause) (掌声)

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