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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
So I'm a professional poker player,
我是一名专业扑克玩家，
and today, I want to talk about three things that the game has taught me
今天，我想谈一谈牌局教给我的
around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.
可以应用于日常决策的三个决策。
Now the first of these things is about luck.
第一个就是运气。
Now, like poker, life is also a game of skill and luck,
生活就像扑克游戏，需要技巧和运气，
and when it comes to the biggest things we care about --
当面对我们最关心的事情——
health, wealth and relationships --
健康，财富，和人际关系——
these outcomes don't only depend on the quality of our decision-making,
其结果都不只跟我们做决定的质量有关，
but also the roll of life's dice.
也取决于生活中的运气。
For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious
例如，我们在非常注重健康的情况下，
and still get unlucky with something like cancer.
也仍然会不幸患上癌症。
Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age,
或者一天抽20只烟，也能同样活到99，
and this kind of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know
这种模糊性有时候让我们很难判断
how good our strategies are, sometimes,
我们的策略究竟有多好，
especially when we're experiencing a lot of success.
尤其在经历了多次成功之后。
For example, back in 2010,
比如说，在2010年时，
I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour.
我赢得了一场真正意义上的 扑克锦标赛，欧洲扑克巡回赛。
And because I'd only been playing full-time for about a year,
再加上我当时仅仅全职玩了一年的扑克，
when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant.
获胜之后，我觉得我一定非常聪明。
In fact, I thought I was so brilliant
事实上，我觉得自己已经如此聪明了，
that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,
所以不仅懒得去钻研游戏，
but I also got more risky,
还开始变得喜欢冒险，
started playing in the biggest tournaments I could
开始参加我能参加的最大的比赛，
against the very best in the world.
与最强大的对手对决。
And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty
然后我的利润图表从让人赏心悦目，
to something kind of sad,
变得有些惨不忍睹，
with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,
并且这种令人担忧的 下行趋势持续了很长时间，
until I finally realized that I was overestimating my skill level,
直到我最终意识到，我高估了自己的水平，
and got my act together.
并开始重振旗鼓。
And this kind of reminds me of what we've been seeing
这让我回想起了
in the cryptocurrency space, at least in 2017,
在加密货币领域的见闻，至少在2017年，
where the only thing that's been going up faster than the markets themselves
唯一比市场本身上升还快的
is the number of "senior investment specialists"
就是不知道从哪里冒出来的
who have been appearing out of nowhere.
“高级投资专家”的数量。
Now I'm not saying it's not possible to have a strategic edge,
我不是说不可能有战略优势，
but at the same time, it's very easy to feel like a genius
但与此同时，当你在 一个快速上升的市场中，
when you're in a market that's going up so fast
即便操着最烂的策略也能赚钱时，
that even the worst strategies are making a profit.
是非常容易感觉自己天赋异禀的。
So when we're experiencing success,
所以当我们在经历成功时，
it's important to take a moment to really ask ourselves
应该花点时间扪心自问，
how much of it is truly down to us,
这次成功中有多少因素 真正取决于我们的能力，
because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning.
因为当我们获胜时，我们的自负感 会倾向于淡化运气成分。
Now, a second thing poker taught me
第二件扑克教给我的事，
is the importance of quantifying my thinking.
是量化自己想法的重要性。
When you're playing, you can't just get away with going,
当你在牌局上时，不可能就这样想着，
"Eh, they're probably bluffing."
“呃，他们可能是在虚张声势。”
That's just going to lose you a bunch of money,
这只会让你输很多钱，
because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,
因为扑克是个关于概率和精确性的游戏，
and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.
所以你必须训练自己用数字思考。
So now, whenever I catch myself
所以现在，每当我发现自己
thinking vaguely about something really important, like,
在粗略地思考一些 非常重要的事情时，比如
"It's unlikely I'll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
“我大概不会在TED演讲时 忘记自己想要讲什么，”
I now try to estimate it numerically.
我现在会尝试用数字估算它。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process.
相信我，这真的对计划过程 有很大的帮助。
And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today,
事实上，什么事情都有可能在今天
or at any point in the future,
或在未来某个时候发生，
can also be expressed as a probability, too.
也可以被表达为概率。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.
我也会尝试把数据用到对话中。
So if someone asks me,
如果有人问我，
"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going to come along to that thing tonight?"
“嗨，丽芙，你今晚会参加么？”
instead of just saying to them, "Yeah, probably,"
与其用“可能吧”这样的方式回复他们，
I actually give them my best estimate --
我会给他们我最好的估计值——
say, 60 percent.
比如，六成。
Because -- I know that sounds a little odd --
虽然——我知道这听着奇怪——
but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter
但关键在于，我在推特上对人们
of what people understand the word "probably" to mean,
如何理解“可能吧”这句话做了个调研，
and this was the spread of answers.
这是答案的分布情况。
Enormous!
十分广泛！
So apparently, it's absolutely useless
很明显，在传达任何重要的信息时，
at actually conveying any real information.
这个表达是完全没用的。
So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,
所以如果你们抓到自己在用
like "probably" or "sometimes,"
像“大概”或者“有时候”的模糊词语时，
try, instead, using numbers, because when we speak in numbers,
尝试让自己用数字， 因为我们用数字说话时，
we know what lands in the other person's brain.
我们知道对方会如何理解。
Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition.
今天我要讲的第三点，是直觉。
How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes
多少人在Facebook上看到过那些
in your Facebook feed?
心灵鸡汤的图片？
[Always trust your gut feeling and never second-guess.]
【始终相信你的直觉，不要怀疑自己。】
They're nice, right?
挺正能量的，对吧？
It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."
真的挺不错的。没错，”相信你的灵魂。“
Well, they're terrible advice.
只不过它们都是差劲的建议。
These are some of the best poker players in the world right now.
这些是世界上最厉害的扑克玩家。
Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?
他们看着像是完全活在 自己的感觉和直觉里的人吗？
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Look at them!
看看他们！
Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis,
很明显，这些人凭借的 是缓慢，缜密的分析，
and that's because the game has outgrown the days
因为现在的牌局已经不像当年，
where pure street smarts and people-reading
靠着纯粹的草根智慧和看人能力
can get you to the top.
就能让你到达顶峰。
And that's because our intuitions aren't nearly as perfect
这是因为我们的直觉 并没有我们想象中的
as we'd like to believe.
那么完美。
I mean, it'd be great, whenever we're in a tough spot,
当然了，如果每次深陷难处之时，
to just have an answer appear to us from some magical source of inspiration.
都能灵光一现，让问题 迎刃而解，那就再好不过了。
But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable
但现实中，我们的直觉极容易受到
to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.
一厢情愿的想法和偏见的影响。
So then, what is our gut good for?
那么，我们的直觉究竟擅长什么呢？
Well, all the studies I've read
在我看过的所有研究中，
conclude that it's best-suited for everyday things
都总结出了直觉最适合于那些
that we have lots and lots of experience in,
我们有丰富经验的事情上，
like how we just know that our friend is mad at us
比如我们在跟朋友沟通前，
before we've even said anything to them,
就知道他们在生我们的气，
or whether we can fit our car into a tight parking spot.
或者我们能不能把车停到 一个非常小的车位上。
But when it comes to the really big stuff,
但在做重大决定时，
like what's our career path going to be
比如我们的职业规划
or who should we marry,
或挑选结婚对象时，
why should we assume that our intuitions
我们为什么要相信直觉会比
are better calibrated for these than slow, proper analysis?
慢节奏，适当的分析 更适合处理这些问题呢？
I mean, they don't have any data to be based off.
我意思是，直觉没有任何数据来支撑。
So my third lesson is, while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
所以我学到的第三件事就是： 我们不应该忽视我们的直觉，
we shouldn't overprivilege them either.
但也不应该过分重视它们。
And I'd like to summarize these three lessons today
我现在想要
with my own set of memes,
从一名扑克玩家的角度
with more of a poker-player twist.
来总结一下这三个经验。
"Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size."
“通过大样本量获得的成功才是最甜美的。”
(Laughter)
（笑声）
"Your gut is your friend and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
”直觉是你的朋友，成本效益分析也同样。”
(Laughter)
（笑声）
"The future is unknown, but you can damn well try and estimate it."
”未来是未知的，但是你可以 努力的尝试并且评估它。“
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
（掌声）