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【TED】直觉的力量

 

So I am here ... [AI] 所以我在这里。。。 to recruit you ... [AI] 招募你。。。 to the liberation movement. [AI] 为了解放运动。 Now don't worry. this is not the uniform that you have to wear. [AI] 现在别担心。这不是你必须穿的制服。 (Laughter) [AI] (众笑) You can come as yourself. [AI] 你可以自己来。 So you're probably wondering. "Well. what are we being liberated from?" [AI] 所以你可能想知道。“那么,我们从什么中解放出来?” We are being liberated from the endless weight of data. [AI] 我们正从无尽的数据重压中解放出来。 It keeps us bound ... [AI] 它使我们受到约束。。。 so that we can't move into the future. [AI] 这样我们就不能进入未来。 because we're so busy being tied to the past. [AI] 因为我们忙着与过去联系在一起。 So how do we get free? [AI] 那么我们如何获得自由呢? The freedom comes from our intuition. [AI] 自由来自我们的直觉。 The thing that's right here. [AI] 就在这里的东西。 you know. that you can't really quite quantify. [AI] 你知道的。你不能完全量化。 Sometimes. you can't even really describe it. [AI] 有时你甚至无法描述它。 That intuition. that's the thing. [AI] 这种直觉。就是这样。 Now I'm fortunate to have had a career in marketing. [AI] 现在我很幸运,有一个营销的职业生涯。 where data and intuition and creative ideas [AI] 数据、直觉和创意 are sort of intertwined. [AI] 有点纠缠不清。 But at the beginning of my career. I had a boss who told me [AI] 但在我职业生涯的开始。我有个老板告诉我 that the data was going to be extraordinarily important [AI] 这些数据将非常重要 to the success of my ideas. [AI] 为了我的想法的成功。 Right? [AI] 正当 Anchor the idea in the data. [AI] 将想法锚定在数据中。 Anchor the idea in the data. [AI] 将想法锚定在数据中。 you can predict whether or not it's going to work. [AI] 你可以预测它是否会起作用。 and then you can see if it actually did work. and vice versa. [AI] 然后你就能看到它是否真的起作用了。反之亦然。 Well. I mean. look. I took that advice. [AI] 好我是说。看我接受了这个建议。 I baked a lot my ideas right there in the data. [AI] 我把我的很多想法都放在数据里了。 I was inspired. sometimes. [AI] 我被鼓舞了。有时 I'd see a pattern of something moving. and I would say. [AI] 我看到有东西在移动。我会说。 "Look. I can follow that! [AI] “看,我能听懂! Maybe it'll work." [AI] 也许会有用的。" But the challenge was that my ideas stopped right there. [AI] 但挑战是我的想法就停在那里了。 They didn't really take flight. [AI] 他们并不是真的坐飞机。 Because. you know. the ideas are based off of electricity. you know? [AI] 因为你知道的。这些想法是以电为基础的。你知道的? Ideas. like. come sharp. [AI] 思想。喜欢快来。 They sprint here. and they go here. and they move there. [AI] 他们在这里冲刺。他们去了这里。他们搬到那里去了。 They're nonlinear. [AI] 它们是非线性的。 I kind of feel like they're like daydreams. [AI] 我觉得他们就像白日梦一样。 You know? Intuition gets you there. [AI] 你知道的?直觉让你达到目的。 It feels like something that is just on the horizon. [AI] 这感觉就像是地平线上的东西。 And then. sometimes. it comes into sharp focus. [AI] 然后。有时它成为焦点。 You wake up and you remember exactly what it was. [AI] 当你醒来时,你会清楚地记得那是什么。 That's what ideas feel like. [AI] 这就是想法的感觉。 And your intuition is actually what helps you get there. [AI] 而你的直觉实际上是帮助你达到目的的。 It takes it from something that is so practical [AI] 它是从非常实用的东西中提取出来的 to something that is magical. [AI] 去做一些神奇的事情。 Now. I'm also very. very. very grateful for a boss I had early on. [AI] 现在我也很高兴。非常非常感谢我早期的老板。 who affirmed my intuition. [AI] 他肯定了我的直觉。 I worked for Spike Lee at his advertising agency. [AI] 我在斯派克·李的广告公司工作。 This was in the early 2000s. [AI] 这是在21世纪初。 And at the time. [AI] 当时。 Pepsi had commissioned him to create a commercial [AI] 百事委托他制作一个广告 for a campaign that they were trying to run [AI] 为了一场他们试图进行的竞选 on the main brand. [AI] 在主品牌上。 Spike asked everybody in the office [AI] 斯派克问办公室里的每个人 to come up with some thoughts on what the talent could be [AI] 想一想这个人才应该是什么样的 that would star in the commercial. [AI] 那将成为广告中的明星。 And at the time. I was an assistant account executive. [AI] 当时。我是一名助理客户经理。 There were people who were much more senior than I. [AI] 有些人比我年长得多。 who knew exactly what they were doing. [AI] 谁知道他们在干什么。 who had come up with a bunch of great ideas. [AI] 他想出了一大堆好主意。 who had come up with a bunch of great ideas. [AI] 他想出了一大堆好主意。 They went to the data. [AI] 他们去查阅资料。 They went to the Billboard charts to look at who was at the top. [AI] 他们去看广告牌排行榜,看看谁在榜首。 They went to album sales to see who was selling. [AI] 他们去唱片销售部看谁在卖。 who the public really loved. [AI] 公众真正喜爱的人。 who the public really loved. [AI] 公众真正喜爱的人。 They looked at lists that experts had put together. [AI] 他们查看了专家们整理的清单。 Who's at the top? Who's really going to win? [AI] 谁在最高层?谁真的会赢? Who has longevity? [AI] 谁长寿? Well. I didn't really understand any of that data. [AI] 好这些数据我一点都不懂。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) I could look at it. [AI] 我可以看看。 but I didn't really trust myself to interpret it. [AI] 但我真的不相信自己能解释它。 So I went to the thing I did know. [AI] 所以我去了我确实知道的地方。 which is MTV. [AI] 这就是MTV。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) There had been a made-for-TV movie [AI] 有一部专为电视制作的电影 called "Carmen: A Hip Hopera." on MTV. [AI] 被称为“卡门:嘻哈时代”在MTV上。 I loved it. [AI] 我喜欢它。 It starred Beyoncé. [AI] 它由碧昂丝主演。 Now I thought it was magical. [AI] 现在我觉得它很神奇。 because. I mean. who the hell puts hip-hop and opera together? [AI] 因为我是说。到底是谁把嘻哈和歌剧放在一起的? It's fascinating. [AI] 这很吸引人。 So. I put my vote on Beyoncé. [AI] 所以我投碧昂丝一票。 Now of course. today. everybody would be like. [AI] 当然是现在。今天每个人都会这样。 "Well. of course. that makes so much sense. why wouldn't you? [AI] “好吧。当然。这很有道理。你为什么不呢? Bet on her. Yeah. she's a winner." [AI] 赌她。是 啊她是个胜利者。" But at the time. the data would tell us differently. [AI] 但是当时。数据会告诉我们不同的情况。 No. there are not a lot of solo artists that come out of girl groups [AI] 没有。没有多少独唱艺术家是从女孩团体中走出来的 and are successful. [AI] 而且是成功的。 In my opinion. there is only one. [AI] 在我看来。只有一个。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) Diana Ross. [AI] 戴安娜·罗斯。 Yeah. the one. [AI] 是 啊那个。 (Laughter) [AI] (众笑) Beyoncé is another. [AI] 碧昂丝是另一个。 So at the time. nobody was betting on her. [AI] 所以当时。没有人在她身上下赌注。 But I'm so grateful that Spike ... [AI] 但我很感激斯派克。。。 affirmed my intuition and also followed his. [AI] 肯定了我的直觉,也跟着他的。 And I would say. today. that we’re pretty successful. [AI] 我会说。今天我们非常成功。 (Laughter) [AI] (众笑) Now. 20 years later. I still use my intuition. daily. [AI] 现在20年后。我仍然使用我的直觉。每日的 I'm the chief marketing officer at Netflix. [AI] 我是Netflix的首席营销官。 You'd probably say that maybe the stakes weren't as high [AI] 你可能会说,也许赌注没有那么高 when I was an assistant account executive. [AI] 当我是一名助理客户经理时。 so I could use my intuition. and who cared. [AI] 所以我可以用我的直觉。谁在乎呢。 And maybe today. that's different. [AI] 也许今天。那不一样。 It’s not. [AI] 不是。 Every day. I am charged with looking at campaigns [AI] 每一天我负责研究竞选活动 that are 15 seconds long. 60 seconds long. 90 seconds long. [AI] 15秒长。60秒长。90秒长。 that will encourage you to watch something that's much longer. [AI] 这会鼓励你看更长的东西。 Every day. [AI] 每一天 And so I have to use my intuition to understand [AI] 所以我必须用我的直觉去理解 whether or not something is going to make you cry immediately. [AI] 是否有什么事情会让你马上哭。 is it going to make you laugh immediately. [AI] 它会立刻让你发笑吗。 is it going to scare you? [AI] 这会吓到你吗? Is it going to inspire you? [AI] 这会激励你吗? And I feel like if I feel that ... [AI] 我觉得如果我觉得。。。 then perhaps you do too. [AI] 那也许你也是。 Now I'm not the only one. [AI] 现在我不是唯一一个。 There are other people who do this. [AI] 还有其他人这样做。 One is over 100 years ago. Henry Ford. [AI] 一个是100多年前的事了。亨利·福特。 He's attributed with saying that if he had asked people. [AI] 如果他问过别人的话,他会说这句话。 at the time when he was inventing the Model T. [AI] 在他发明T型车的时候。 if they wanted something like that. [AI] 如果他们想要那样的东西。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) they would have said they wanted faster horses ... [AI] 他们会说他们想要更快的马。。。 instead of this new invention. [AI] 而不是这项新发明。 I think that's pretty powerful. [AI] 我认为这是相当强大的。 Or you can look at today. [AI] 或者你可以看看今天。 A more recent example. Ed Bastian and the team at Delta. [AI] 最近的一个例子。Ed Bastian和Delta的团队。 you know. based on intuition. I believe. [AI] 你知道的。基于直觉。我相信。 decided that after the restrictions of leaving that middle seat open [AI] 决定在限制中间座位开放后 so that those who are flying would feel safer. [AI] 这样飞行的人会觉得更安全。 with some distance in-between them. [AI] 他们之间有一段距离。 with some distance in-between them. [AI] 他们之间有一段距离。 that after those restrictions were lifted. [AI] 在这些限制解除之后。 they still kept that middle seat open. [AI] 他们仍然让中间的座位开着。 Now I'm sure they were losing millions of dollars every day [AI] 现在我确信他们每天都在损失数百万美元 with that decision. [AI] 我同意这个决定。 but the intuition was right. [AI] 但直觉是正确的。 Do you feel safer? Do I feel safer? [AI] 你觉得安全吗?我觉得安全吗? What would make us feel safer? [AI] 什么能让我们感觉更安全? I think that's the right thing. [AI] 我认为这是正确的。 Now look. we can all look at 2020 and 2021 [AI] 现在看。我们都可以看到2020和2021 and understand that. oof. we can't really predict what happens. [AI] 我明白这一点。噢。我们真的无法预测会发生什么。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) We don't really know. [AI] 我们真的不知道。 But what we do know is right here. [AI] 但我们知道的就在这里。 What are the things that make us feel good. [AI] 是什么让我们感觉良好。 the things that scare us. [AI] 让我们害怕的事情。 the things that make us feel more connected to each other? [AI] 是什么让我们感觉彼此更亲密? You know. today ... [AI] 你知道的。今天 is a gift. [AI] 这是一份礼物。 That’s why they call it the present. [AI] 这就是为什么他们称之为礼物。 (Laughter) [AI] (众笑) I didn't make that up. but it's so corny and I love it. [AI] 那不是我编的。但它太老土了,我喜欢它。 (Laughter) [AI] (众笑) But my addition to it [AI] 但是我的补充 is the question: "Why would we give the present back?" [AI] 问题是:“我们为什么要把礼物还给别人?” Oh. your intuition is a gift. [AI] 哦你的直觉是一种天赋。 So we have to use it. [AI] 所以我们必须使用它。 So then let's talk about you. [AI] 那么让我们来谈谈你。 You have your intuition. [AI] 你有你的直觉。 And we'll use some science in here too. [AI] 我们在这里也会用到一些科学知识。 We're not totally against data. [AI] 我们并不完全反对数据。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) That if you are a set up of molecules. OK? [AI] 如果你是一组分子。好啊 Every one of us has a unique pattern. a unique set. [AI] 我们每个人都有自己独特的模式。独一无二的一套。 How remarkable is that -- no two of us are the same. [AI] 这有多了不起,我们两个都不一样。 So one molecule changes. [AI] 所以一个分子发生了变化。 and we have a whole other being. [AI] 我们有一个完全不同的存在。 Now if you consider that we take ourselves as a whole -- [AI] 如果你认为我们把自己当作一个整体 let's pretend we're one big molecule. [AI] 让我们假设我们是一个大分子。 and that over there. the matter over there. [AI] 就在那边。那边的事。 is life and the experiences. the services. the communities [AI] 是生活和经验。服务。社区 that we serve. [AI] 我们的服务。 that we serve. [AI] 我们的服务。 and we enter that matter -- [AI] 我们进入这件事-- it changes. [AI] 它改变了。 You step out of the matter. it changes. [AI] 你别插手这件事。它改变了。 So of course you're powerful. [AI] 所以你当然很强大。 So why wouldn't your intuition. [AI] 那你的直觉为什么不呢。 your own thing that you have. [AI] 你自己拥有的东西。 be powerful? [AI] 强大吗? I think about that all the time. [AI] 我一直在想那件事。 And perhaps you don't want to take the big. big swing just yet. [AI] 也许你不想承担重大责任。大秋千。 You know. you can take the little steps. [AI] 你知道的。你可以采取一些小步骤。 You can practice. [AI] 你可以练习。 I've practiced for a long time. [AI] 我练习了很长时间。 I want to encourage you to practice too. [AI] 我想鼓励你也练习。 So maybe you don't want to. you know. bet on Beyoncé. [AI] 所以也许你不想。你知道的。打赌碧昂丝。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) Or maybe you don't want to create the Model T. [AI] 或者,您可能不想创建模型t。 Maybe you don't want to make the call about the middle seat. [AI] 也许你不想为中间的座位打电话。 So let's take it to something [AI] 让我们把它带到某个地方 that may be a little bit easier. a little closer to home. [AI] 这可能会容易一点。离家近一点。 Let's pretend you're curating a dinner party. [AI] 让我们假装你在策划一个晚宴。 Going to be safe about it -- we have six people over. [AI] 安全起见,我们有六个人在那边。 And you're considering all the data around who likes what. [AI] 你要考虑的是关于谁喜欢什么的所有数据。 Right? There's some people who. you know. [AI] 正当有一些人是这样的。你知道的。 maybe somebody is a pescatarian. [AI] 也许有人是佩斯卡塔里亚人。 another person doesn't eat dairy. [AI] 另一个人不吃奶制品。 another hates spicy food. [AI] 另一个讨厌辛辣的食物。 another hates spicy food. [AI] 另一个讨厌辛辣的食物。 somebody only likes their food really. really hot. with heat. [AI] 有些人只喜欢他们的食物。真的很热。有热。 and you have to consider all of this. [AI] 你必须考虑所有这些。 Put it all together. think about what to make. [AI] 把它们放在一起。想想该做什么。 I think you'd come up with a really bland fish dish. [AI] 我想你会想出一道非常清淡的鱼菜。 ugh. [AI] 啊。 Something terrible. [AI] 可怕的事情。 But if you used yourself as the curator. [AI] 但如果你把自己当馆长。 as one with intuition -- [AI] 作为一个有直觉的人-- think about it. yes. put in all the data. you know? [AI] 想想看。对输入所有数据。你知道的? Pescatarian. the spices. all of that. [AI] 鱼素者香料。所有这些。 I think you would come up with something you wanted to eat too. [AI] 我想你也会想出一些你想吃的东西。 You know? Taking all of that into consideration. [AI] 你知道的?考虑到所有这些。 It might be a catfish stew. [AI] 可能是炖鲶鱼。 Something really delicious. [AI] 非常美味的东西。 something memorable. [AI] 值得纪念的东西。 Now there's probably going to be one person in there who hates it. [AI] 现在可能会有一个人讨厌它。 (Laughs) [AI] (笑) Guaranteed. there's always one. [AI] 放心。总有一个。 But that's OK. [AI] 不过没关系。 Everybody else will remember that moment. [AI] 其他人都会记得那一刻。 remember that experience. [AI] 记住那次经历。 It will be something exciting. [AI] 这将是令人兴奋的事情。 So consider that. [AI] 所以考虑一下。 As I think about data [AI] 当我想到数据时 and how we want to live and change our world. [AI] 以及我们如何生活和改变我们的世界。 I'm reminded that sometimes. data is the pill that we take [AI] 有时候我会想起这一点。数据是我们服用的药丸 to calm our insecurity [AI] 平息我们的不安全感 about what we intuitively know. [AI] 关于我们直觉上知道的。 So I’m advocating [AI] 所以我主张 that we decrease the dosage of our data. [AI] 我们减少了数据的用量。 And that we increase the implementation of our intuition. [AI] 我们增加了直觉的实现。 You’ll feel great. [AI] 你会感觉很棒的。 you really will ... [AI] 你真的会。。。 when you're able to prove to yourself [AI] 当你能向自己证明 that the power of your intuition is actually accurate. [AI] 你直觉的力量实际上是准确的。 Thank you so much. [AI] 非常感谢你。 (Applause) [AI] (掌声)

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