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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
I'm going to talk about how AI and mankind can coexist.
[AI] 我要谈谈人工智能和人类是如何共存的。
but first. we have to rethink about our human values.
[AI] 但是首先。我们必须重新思考我们的人类价值观。
So let me first make a confession about my errors in my values.
[AI] 因此，让我首先承认我在价值观上的错误。
It was 11 o'clock. December 16. 1991.
[AI] 当时是11点。十二月十六号。1991
I was about to become a father for the first time.
[AI] 我第一次就要当爸爸了。
My wife. Shen-Ling. lay in the hospital bed
[AI] 我妻子。沈玲。躺在病床上
going through a very difficult 12-hour labor.
[AI] 经历了非常困难的12小时劳动。
I sat by her bedside
[AI] 我坐在她的床边
but looked anxiously at my watch.
[AI] 但他焦急地看着我的手表。
and I knew something that she didn't.
[AI] 我知道一些她不知道的事情。
I knew that if in one hour.
[AI] 我知道如果在一小时内。
our child didn't come.
[AI] 我们的孩子没有来。
I was going to leave her there
[AI] 我打算把她留在那里
and go back to work
[AI] 然后回去工作
and make a presentation about AI
[AI] 做一个关于人工智能的演讲
to my boss. Apple's CEO.
[AI] 给我的老板。苹果的首席执行官。
Fortunately. my daughter was born at 11:30 --
[AI] 幸运地我女儿11:30出生--
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
sparing me from doing the unthinkable.
[AI] 不让我做那些不可思议的事。
and to this day. I am so sorry
[AI] 直到今天。我很抱歉
for letting my work ethic take precedence over love for my family.
[AI] 让我的职业道德高于对家庭的爱。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
My AI talk. however. went off brilliantly.
[AI] 我的AI语言。然而非常出色。
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
Apple loved my work and decided to announce it
[AI] 苹果喜欢我的工作，并决定宣布它
at TED1992.
[AI] 在1992年的TED上。
26 years ago on this very stage.
[AI] 26年前就在这个舞台上。
I thought I had made one of the biggest. most important discoveries in AI.
[AI] 我以为我做了一个最大的。人工智能中最重要的发现。
and so did the "Wall Street Journal" on the following day.
[AI] 第二天的《华尔街日报》也是如此。
But as far as discoveries went.
[AI] 但就发现而言。
it turned out.
[AI] 结果是。
I didn't discover India. or America.
[AI] 我没有发现印度。或者美国。
Perhaps I discovered a little island off of Portugal.
[AI] 也许我在葡萄牙附近发现了一个小岛。
But the AI era of discovery continued.
[AI] 但人工智能的发现时代仍在继续。
and more scientists poured their souls into it.
[AI] 更多的科学家倾注了他们的灵魂。
About 10 years ago. the grand AI discovery
[AI] 大约10年前。人工智能大发现
was made by three North American scientists.
[AI] 这是由三位北美科学家制作的。
and it's known as deep learning.
[AI] 这就是所谓的深度学习。
Deep learning is a technology that can take a huge amount of data
[AI] 深度学习是一种可以获取大量数据的技术
within one single domain
[AI] 在一个域内
and learn to predict or decide at superhuman accuracy.
[AI] 学会以超人的准确度预测或决定。
For example. if we show the deep learning network
[AI] 例如如果我们展示深度学习网络
a massive number of food photos.
[AI] 大量的食物照片。
it can recognize food
[AI] 它能识别食物
such as hot dog or no hot dog.
[AI] 比如热狗或者没有热狗。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
Or if we show it many pictures and videos and sensor data
[AI] 或者如果我们给它看很多图片、视频和传感器数据
from driving on the highway.
[AI] 在高速公路上开车。
it can actually drive a car as well as a human being
[AI] 它实际上可以驾驶汽车，也可以驾驶人
on the highway.
[AI] 在高速公路上。
And what if we showed this deep learning network
[AI] 如果我们展示这个深度学习网络呢
all the speeches made by President Trump?
[AI] 特朗普总统的所有演讲？
Then this artificially intelligent President Trump.
[AI] 然后是这位人工智能的特朗普总统。
actually the network --
[AI] 实际上是网络--
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
can --
[AI] 能--
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
You like double oxymorons. huh?
[AI] 你喜欢双重矛盾修饰法。呵呵？
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
So this network. if given the request to make a speech about AI.
[AI] 所以这个网络。如果被要求就人工智能发表演讲。
he. or it. might say --
[AI] 他或者它。可能会说--
(Recording) Donald Trump: It's a great thing
[AI] （录音）唐纳德·特朗普：这是一件伟大的事情
to build a better world with artificial intelligence.
[AI] 用人工智能建立一个更美好的世界。
Kai-Fu Lee: And maybe in another language?
[AI] 李开复：也许用另一种语言？
DT: (Speaking Chinese)
[AI] （说中文）
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
KFL: You didn't know he knew Chinese. did you?
[AI] 你不知道他懂中文。是吗？
So deep learning has become the core in the era of AI discovery.
[AI] 因此，深度学习已成为人工智能发现时代的核心。
and that's led by the US.
[AI] 这是由美国领导的。
But we're now in the era of implementation.
[AI] 但我们现在正处于实施的时代。
where what really matters is execution. product quality. speed and data.
[AI] 真正重要的是执行。产品质量。速度和数据。
And that's where China comes in.
[AI] 这就是中国的作用所在。
Chinese entrepreneurs.
[AI] 中国企业家。
who I fund as a venture capitalist.
[AI] 我以风险投资家的身份资助他。
are incredible workers.
[AI] 他们是不可思议的工人。
amazing work ethic.
[AI] 惊人的职业道德。
My example in the delivery room is nothing compared to how hard people work in China.
[AI] 我在产房的例子与中国人的努力相比根本算不上什么。
As an example. one startup tried to claim work-life balance:
[AI] 举个例子。一家初创公司试图平衡工作与生活：
"Come work for us because we are 996."
[AI] “来为我们工作吧，因为我们是996。”
And what does that mean?
[AI] 那是什么意思？
It means the work hours of 9am to 9pm. six days a week.
[AI] 指的是上午9点到晚上9点的工作时间。一周六天。
That's contrasted with other startups that do 997.
[AI] 这与其他做997的创业公司形成了对比。
And the Chinese product quality has consistently gone up
[AI] 中国的产品质量一直在提高
in the past decade.
[AI] 在过去的十年里。
and that's because of a fiercely competitive environment.
[AI] 这是因为竞争激烈的环境。
In Silicon Valley. entrepreneurs compete in a very gentlemanly fashion.
[AI] 在硅谷。企业家们以非常绅士的方式竞争。
sort of like in old wars in which each side took turns
[AI] 有点像旧战争中，双方轮流作战
to fire at each other.
[AI] 互相射击。
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
But in the Chinese environment.
[AI] 但在中国的环境中。
it's truly a gladiatorial fight to the death.
[AI] 这真是一场角斗至死。
In such a brutal environment. entrepreneurs learn to grow very rapidly.
[AI] 在如此残酷的环境中。企业家学会快速成长。
they learn to make their products better at lightning speed.
[AI] 他们学习以闪电般的速度改进产品。
and they learn to hone their business models
[AI] 他们还学会磨练自己的商业模式
until they're impregnable.
[AI] 直到它们坚不可摧。
As a result. great Chinese products like WeChat and Weibo
[AI] 因此好的中国产品，如微信和微博
are arguably better than the equivalent American products from Facebook and Twitter.
[AI] 可以说比Facebook和Twitter上同等的美国产品要好。
And the Chinese market embraces this change and accelerated change and paradigm shifts.
[AI] 中国市场接受了这一变化，并加速了变化和范式转变。
As an example. if any of you go to China.
[AI] 举个例子。如果你们中有人去中国。
you will see it's almost cashless and credit card-less.
[AI] 你会发现它几乎没有现金和信用卡。
because that thing that we all talk about. mobile payment.
[AI] 因为我们都在谈论的那件事。移动支付。
has become the reality in China.
[AI] 在中国已经成为现实。
In the last year.
[AI] 去年。
18.8 trillion US dollars were transacted on mobile internet.
[AI] 移动互联网交易额18.8万亿美元。
and that's because of very robust technologies built behind it.
[AI] 这是因为它背后建立了非常强大的技术。
It's even bigger than the China GDP.
[AI] 它甚至超过了中国的GDP。
And this technology. you can say. how can it be bigger than the GDP?
[AI] 这项技术。你可以说。它怎么能超过GDP呢？
Because it includes all transactions:
[AI] 因为它包括所有交易：
wholesale. channels. retail. online. offline.
[AI] 批发频道。零售在线 的离线。
going into a shopping mall or going into a farmers market like this.
[AI] 像这样走进购物中心或农贸市场。
The technology is used by 700 million people
[AI] 这项技术被7亿人使用
to pay each other. not just merchants.
[AI] 互相支付。不仅仅是商人。
so it's peer to peer.
[AI] 所以它是点对点的。
and it's almost transaction-fee-free.
[AI] 而且几乎不收交易费。
And it's instantaneous.
[AI] 而且是瞬间的。
and it's used everywhere.
[AI] 而且到处都用。
And finally. the China market is enormous.
[AI] 最后。中国市场是巨大的。
This market is large.
[AI] 这个市场很大。
which helps give entrepreneurs more users. more revenue.
[AI] 这有助于为企业家提供更多的用户。增加收入。
more investment. but most importantly.
[AI] 增加投资。但最重要的是。
it gives the entrepreneurs a chance to collect a huge amount of data
[AI] 这让企业家们有机会收集大量的数据
which becomes rocket fuel for the AI engine.
[AI] 成为AI引擎的火箭燃料。
So as a result. the Chinese AI companies have leaped ahead
[AI] 因此,。中国的人工智能公司已经跃跃欲试
so that today. the most valuable companies in computer vision. speech recognition.
[AI] 所以今天。计算机视觉领域最有价值的公司。语音识别
speech synthesis. machine translation and drones
[AI] 语音合成。机器翻译与无人机
are all Chinese companies.
[AI] 这些都是中国公司。
So with the US leading the era of discovery
[AI] 因此，随着美国引领着发现的时代
and China leading the era of implementation.
[AI] 中国引领着实施的时代。
we are now in an amazing age
[AI] 我们现在正处在一个惊人的时代
where the dual engine of the two superpowers are working together
[AI] 两个超级大国的双引擎在一起工作
to drive the fastest revolution in technology
[AI] 推动最快的技术革命
that we have ever seen as humans.
[AI] 我们曾经见过的人类。
And this will bring tremendous wealth.
[AI] 这将带来巨大的财富。
unprecedented wealth:
[AI] 空前的财富：
16 trillion dollars. according to PwC.
[AI] 16万亿美元。根据普华永道的说法。
in terms of added GDP to the worldwide GDP by 2030.
[AI] 就2030年全球GDP的新增GDP而言。
It will also bring immense challenges
[AI] 它还将带来巨大的挑战
in terms of potential job replacements.
[AI] 就潜在的工作替换而言。
Whereas in the Industrial Age
[AI] 而在工业时代,
it created more jobs
[AI] 它创造了更多的就业机会
because craftsman jobs were being decomposed into jobs in the assembly line.
[AI] 因为工匠的工作被分解成装配线上的工作。
so more jobs were created.
[AI] 因此创造了更多的就业机会。
But AI completely replaces the individual jobs
[AI] 但人工智能完全取代了个人工作
in the assembly line with robots.
[AI] 在机器人装配线上。
And it's not just in factories.
[AI] 而且不仅仅是在工厂里。
but truckers. drivers
[AI] 但是卡车司机。司机
and even jobs like telesales. customer service
[AI] 甚至像电话销售这样的工作。客户服务
and hematologists as well as radiologists
[AI] 血液学家和放射科医生
over the next 15 years
[AI] 在接下来的15年里
are going to be gradually replaced by artificial intelligence.
[AI] 将逐渐被人工智能所取代。
And only the creative jobs --
[AI] 只有创造性的工作--
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
I have to make myself safe. right?
[AI] 我必须保证自己的安全。正当
Really. the creative jobs are the ones that are protected.
[AI] 真正地创造性工作是受保护的工作。
because AI can optimize but not create.
[AI] 因为人工智能可以优化，但不能创造。
But what's more serious than the loss of jobs is the loss of meaning.
[AI] 但比失业更严重的是意义的丧失。
because the work ethic in the Industrial Age
[AI] 因为工业时代的职业道德
has brainwashed us into thinking that work is the reason we exist.
[AI] 我们被洗脑，认为工作是我们存在的原因。
that work defined the meaning of our lives.
[AI] 那部作品定义了我们生活的意义。
And I was a prime and willing victim to that type of workaholic thinking.
[AI] 我是那种工作狂思维的主要受害者。
I worked incredibly hard.
[AI] 我工作非常努力。
That's why I almost left my wife in the delivery room.
[AI] 这就是我差点把妻子留在产房的原因。
that's why I worked 996 alongside my entrepreneurs.
[AI] 这就是为什么我和我的企业家们一起工作。
And that obsession that I had with work
[AI] 还有我对工作的痴迷
ended abruptly a few years ago
[AI] 几年前突然结束了
when I was diagnosed with fourth stage lymphoma.
[AI] 当我被诊断为第四期淋巴瘤时。
The PET scan here shows over 20 malignant tumors
[AI] PET扫描显示超过20个恶性肿瘤
jumping out like fireballs.
[AI] 像火球一样跳出来。
melting away my ambition.
[AI] 融化了我的野心。
But more importantly.
[AI] 但更重要的是。
it helped me reexamine my life.
[AI] 它帮助我重新审视我的生活。
Knowing that I may only have a few months to live
[AI] 知道我可能只有几个月的生命
caused me to see how foolish it was
[AI] 让我明白这是多么愚蠢
for me to base my entire self-worth
[AI] 让我以我的全部自我价值为基础
on how hard I worked and the accomplishments from hard work.
[AI] 关于我工作的努力程度和努力所取得的成就。
My priorities were completely out of order.
[AI] 我的优先次序完全乱了。
I neglected my family.
[AI] 我忽视了我的家人。
My father had passed away.
[AI] 我父亲去世了。
and I never had a chance to tell him I loved him.
[AI] 我从来没有机会告诉他我爱他。
My mother had dementia and no longer recognized me.
[AI] 我母亲患有痴呆症，再也认不出我了。
and my children had grown up.
[AI] 我的孩子们已经长大了。
During my chemotherapy.
[AI] 在我化疗期间。
I read a book by Bronnie Ware
[AI] 我读了一本Bronnie Ware的书
who talked about dying wishes and regrets of the people in the deathbed.
[AI] 谈到临终前人们临终前的愿望和遗憾。
She found that facing death.
[AI] 她发现面对死亡。
nobody regretted that they didn't work hard enough in this life.
[AI] 没有人后悔他们这辈子工作不够努力。
They only regretted that they didn't spend enough time with their loved ones
[AI] 他们只是后悔没有花足够的时间与亲人在一起
and that they didn't spread their love.
[AI] 他们没有传播他们的爱。
So I am fortunately today in remission.
[AI] 所以我今天幸运地得到了缓解。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
So I can be back at TED again
[AI] 所以我可以再次回到TED
to share with you that I have changed my ways.
[AI] 和你分享我改变了我的生活方式。
I now only work 965 --
[AI] 我现在只工作965年--
occasionally 996. but usually 965.
[AI] 偶尔996。但通常是965。
I moved closer to my mother.
[AI] 我搬到离我母亲更近的地方。
my wife usually travels with me.
[AI] 我妻子通常和我一起旅行。
and when my kids have vacation. if they don't come home. I go to them.
[AI] 当我的孩子们度假的时候。如果他们不回家。我去找他们。
So it's a new form of life that helped me recognize
[AI] 所以这是一种新的生活方式，帮助我认识到
how important it is that love is for me.
[AI] 爱对我来说是多么重要。
and facing death helped me change my life.
[AI] 面对死亡帮助我改变了我的生活。
but it also helped me see a new way
[AI] 但它也帮助我看到了一种新的方式
of how AI should impact mankind
[AI] 人工智能应该如何影响人类
and work and coexist with mankind.
[AI] 与人类共事,共存。
that really. AI is taking away a lot of routine jobs.
[AI] 真的。人工智能正在夺走很多日常工作。
but routine jobs are not what we're about.
[AI] 但日常工作不是我们要做的。
Why we exist is love.
[AI] 我们存在的原因是爱。
When we hold our newborn baby.
[AI] 当我们抱着新生儿的时候。
love at first sight.
[AI] 一见钟情。
or when we help someone in need.
[AI] 或者当我们帮助有需要的人时。
humans are uniquely able to give and receive love.
[AI] 人类是唯一能够给予和接受爱的人。
and that's what differentiates us from AI.
[AI] 这就是我们与人工智能的区别。
Despite what science fiction may portray.
[AI] 不管科幻小说怎么描述。
I can responsibly tell you that AI has no love.
[AI] 我可以负责任地告诉你，AI没有爱。
When AlphaGo defeated the world champion Ke Jie.
[AI] 当阿尔法戈击败世界冠军柯杰时。
while Ke Jie was crying and loving the game of go.
[AI] 而柯洁却在哭泣，喜欢围棋。
AlphaGo felt no happiness from winning
[AI] 阿尔法戈没有因为胜利而感到快乐
and certainly no desire to hug a loved one.
[AI] 当然也不想拥抱心爱的人。
So how do we differentiate ourselves
[AI] 那么我们如何区分自己呢
as humans in the age of AI?
[AI] 作为人工智能时代的人类？
We talked about the axis of creativity.
[AI] 我们谈到了创造力的轴心。
and certainly that is one possibility.
[AI] 当然，这是一种可能性。
and now we introduce a new axis that we can call compassion. love. or empathy.
[AI] 现在我们引入一个新的轴心，我们可以称之为同情。爱或者移情。
Those are things that AI cannot do.
[AI] 这些都是人工智能不能做的事情。
So as AI takes away the routine jobs.
[AI] 所以当人工智能拿走常规工作时。
I like to think we can. we should and we must create jobs of compassion.
[AI] 我想我们可以。我们应该而且必须创造同情的工作机会。
You might ask how many of those there are.
[AI] 你可能会问有多少这样的人。
but I would ask you:
[AI] 但我想问你：
Do you not think that we are going to need a lot of social workers
[AI] 你不认为我们需要很多社会工作者吗
to help us make this transition?
[AI] 帮助我们实现这一转变？
Do you not think we need a lot of compassionate caregivers
[AI] 你不认为我们需要很多富有同情心的照顾者吗
to give more medical care to more people?
[AI] 给更多的人更多的医疗照顾？
Do you not think we're going to need 10 times more teachers
[AI] 你不认为我们需要10倍多的老师吗
to help our children find their way
[AI] 帮助我们的孩子找到他们的路
to survive and thrive in this brave new world?
[AI] 在这个勇敢的新世界里生存和发展？
And with all the newfound wealth.
[AI] 和所有新发现的财富。
should we not also make labors of love into careers
[AI] 难道我们不应该把爱的劳动变成事业吗
and let elderly accompaniment or homeschooling become careers also?
[AI] 让老年人陪伴或在家上学也成为职业？
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
This graph is surely not perfect.
[AI] 这个图表肯定不完美。
but it points at four ways that we can work with AI.
[AI] 但它指出了我们可以使用人工智能的四种方法。
AI will come and take away the routine jobs
[AI] 人工智能会来拿走日常工作
and in due time. we will be thankful.
[AI] 在适当的时候。我们将心存感激。
AI will become great tools for the creatives
[AI] 人工智能将成为创造力的伟大工具
so that scientists. artists. musicians and writers
[AI] 所以科学家们。艺术家。音乐家和作家
can be even more creative.
[AI] 可以更具创造性。
AI will work with humans as analytical tools
[AI] 人工智能将与人类一起作为分析工具
that humans can wrap their warmth around for the high-compassion jobs.
[AI] 人类可以为高慈悲心的工作包裹他们的温暖。
And we can always differentiate ourselves
[AI] 我们总是能让自己与众不同
with the uniquely capable jobs
[AI] 拥有独一无二的能干工作
that are both compassionate and creative.
[AI] 既富有同情心又富有创造性。
using and leveraging our irreplaceable brains and hearts.
[AI] 使用和利用我们不可替代的大脑和心脏。
So there you have it:
[AI] 所以你有了它：
a blueprint of coexistence for humans and AI.
[AI] 人类和人工智能共存的蓝图。
AI is serendipity.
[AI] 人工智能是一种偶然性。
It is here to liberate us from routine jobs.
[AI] 它在这里把我们从日常工作中解放出来。
and it is here to remind us what it is that makes us human.
[AI] 它在这里提醒我们，是什么使我们成为人类。
So let us choose to embrace AI and to love one another.
[AI] 因此，让我们选择拥抱人工智能并彼此相爱。
Thank you.
[AI] 非常感谢。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）