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【TED】如果未来没有工作,我们将如何挣钱

 

I'm going to begin with a scary question: [AI] 我将从一个可怕的问题开始: Are we headed toward a future without jobs? [AI] 我们正在走向一个没有工作的未来吗? The remarkable progress that we're seeing [AI] 我们看到的显著进步 in technologies like self-driving cars [AI] 在自动驾驶汽车等技术领域 has led to an explosion of interest in this question. [AI] 引起了人们对这个问题的极大兴趣。 but because it's something that's been asked [AI] 但因为这是一个被问到的问题 so many times in the past. [AI] 过去这么多次。 maybe what we should really be asking [AI] 也许我们真正应该问的是 is whether this time is really different. [AI] 这一次是否真的不同。 The fear that automation might displace workers [AI] 对自动化可能取代工人的担忧 and potentially lead to lots of unemployment [AI] 并可能导致大量失业 goes back at a minimum 200 years to the Luddite revolts in England. [AI] 至少可以追溯到200年前英国的路德派起义。 And since then. this concern has come up again and again. [AI] 从那时起。这种担忧一再出现。 I'm going to guess [AI] 我猜 that most of you have probably never heard of the Triple Revolution report. [AI] 你们大多数人可能从来没有听说过三次革命报告。 but this was a very prominent report. [AI] 但这是一份非常突出的报告。 It was put together by a brilliant group of people -- [AI] 它是由一群才华横溢的人组成的-- it actually included two Nobel laureates -- [AI] 它实际上包括两位诺贝尔奖获得者-- and this report was presented to the President of the United States. [AI] 这份报告被提交给了美国总统。 and it argued that the US was on the brink of economic and social upheaval [AI] 它认为美国正处于经济和社会动荡的边缘 because industrial automation was going to put millions of people [AI] 因为工业自动化将使数百万人 out of work. [AI] 失业的 Now. that report was delivered to President Lyndon Johnson [AI] 现在该报告已提交给林登·约翰逊总统 in March of 1964. [AI] 1964年3月。 So that's now over 50 years. [AI] 现在已经超过50年了。 and. of course. that hasn't really happened. [AI] 和当然这并没有真正发生。 And that's been the story again and again. [AI] 这是一个又一个故事。 This alarm has been raised repeatedly. [AI] 此警报已多次发出。 but it's always been a false alarm. [AI] 但这总是一个错误的警报。 And because it's been a false alarm. [AI] 因为这是一个错误的警报。 it's led to a very conventional way of thinking about this. [AI] 这导致了一种非常传统的思考方式。 And that says essentially that yes. [AI] 从本质上说是的。 technology may devastate entire industries. [AI] 技术可能会摧毁整个行业。 It may wipe out whole occupations and types of work. [AI] 它可能会消灭所有职业和工种。 But at the same time. of course. [AI] 但与此同时。当然 progress is going to lead to entirely new things. [AI] 进步将带来全新的事物。 So there will be new industries that will arise in the future. [AI] 因此,未来将出现新的行业。 and those industries. of course. will have to hire people. [AI] 还有那些行业。当然我们必须雇人。 There'll be new kinds of work that will appear. [AI] 将会有新的工作出现。 and those might be things that today we can't really even imagine. [AI] 这些可能是我们今天甚至无法想象的事情。 And that has been the story so far. [AI] 到目前为止,情况就是这样。 and it's been a positive story. [AI] 这是一个积极的故事。 It turns out that the new jobs that have been created [AI] 事实证明,已经创造的新工作岗位 have generally been a lot better than the old ones. [AI] 总的来说比以前的好很多。 They have. for example. been more engaging. [AI] 他们有。例如更吸引人。 They've been in safer. more comfortable work environments. [AI] 他们在更安全的地方。更舒适的工作环境。 and. of course. they've paid more. [AI] 和当然他们付出了更多。 So it has been a positive story. [AI] 因此,这是一个积极的故事。 That's the way things have played out so far. [AI] 到目前为止,事情就是这样发展的。 But there is one particular class of worker [AI] 但是有一个特殊的工人阶层 for whom the story has been quite different. [AI] 对他们来说,情况完全不同。 For these workers. [AI] 对这些工人来说。 technology has completely decimated their work. [AI] 技术彻底摧毁了他们的工作。 and it really hasn't created any new opportunities at all. [AI] 而且它真的没有创造任何新的机会。 And these workers. of course. [AI] 还有这些工人。当然 are horses. [AI] 它们是马。 (Laughter) [AI] (众笑) So I can ask a very provocative question: [AI] 所以我可以问一个非常具有挑衅性的问题: Is it possible that at some point in the future. [AI] 有没有可能在将来的某个时候。 a significant fraction of the human workforce is going to be made redundant [AI] 相当一部分劳动力将被裁员 in the way that horses were? [AI] 像马那样? Now. you might have a very visceral. reflexive reaction to that. [AI] 现在你可能有一个非常发自内心的想法。对此的反射反应。 You might say. "That's absurd. [AI] 你可能会说。“那太荒谬了。 How can you possibly compare human beings to horses?" [AI] 你怎么能把人比作马呢?" Horses. of course. are very limited. [AI] 马。当然它们非常有限。 and when cars and trucks and tractors came along. [AI] 当汽车、卡车和拖拉机出现时。 horses really had nowhere else to turn. [AI] 马真的无处可转。 People. on the other hand. are intelligent; [AI] 人另一方面他们很聪明; we can learn. we can adapt. [AI] 我们可以学习。我们可以适应。 And in theory. [AI] 从理论上讲。 that ought to mean that we can always find something new to do. [AI] 这应该意味着我们总能找到新的事情做。 and that we can always remain relevant to the future economy. [AI] 我们可以始终与未来经济保持关联。 But here's the really critical thing to understand. [AI] 但这里有一件非常关键的事情需要理解。 The machines that will threaten workers in the future [AI] 未来将威胁工人的机器 are really nothing like those cars and trucks and tractors [AI] 真的一点也不像那些小汽车、卡车和拖拉机 that displaced horses. [AI] 这使马流离失所。 The future is going to be full of thinking. learning. adapting machines. [AI] 未来将充满思考。学习适应机器。 And what that really means [AI] 这到底意味着什么 is that technology is finally beginning to encroach [AI] 技术终于开始入侵了 on that fundamental human capability -- [AI] 关于人类的基本能力-- the thing that makes us so different from horses. [AI] 使我们与马如此不同的东西。 and the very thing that. so far. [AI] 正是这件事。目前为止 has allowed us to stay ahead of the march of progress [AI] 使我们能够在前进的道路上保持领先 and remain relevant. [AI] 并保持相关性。 and. in fact. indispensable to the economy. [AI] 和事实上经济不可或缺。 So what is it that is really so different [AI] 那么,到底是什么真正如此不同呢 about today's information technology [AI] 关于今天的信息技术 relative to what we've seen in the past? [AI] 相对于我们过去所看到的? I would point to three fundamental things. [AI] 我想指出三件基本的事情。 The first thing is that we have seen this ongoing process [AI] 首先,我们看到了这一正在进行的进程 of exponential acceleration. [AI] 指数加速。 I know you all know about Moore's law. [AI] 我知道你们都知道摩尔定律。 but in fact. it's more broad-based than that; [AI] 但事实上。它的基础更广泛; it extends in many cases. for example. to software. [AI] 它在许多情况下都会扩展。例如到软件。 it extends to communications. bandwidth and so forth. [AI] 它延伸到通信领域。带宽等等。 But the really key thing to understand [AI] 但真正需要理解的关键是 is that this acceleration has now been going on for a really long time. [AI] 这种加速已经持续了很长时间。 In fact. it's been going on for decades. [AI] 事实上这已经持续了几十年了。 If you measure from the late 1950s. [AI] 如果你从20世纪50年代末开始测量。 when the first integrated circuits were fabricated. [AI] 当第一批集成电路制造出来时。 we've seen something on the order of 30 doublings in computational power [AI] 我们已经看到计算能力大约是30倍 since then. That's just an extraordinary number of times to double any quantity. [AI] 从那时起这是任何数量翻倍的惊人次数。 and what it really means [AI] 它的真正含义是什么 is that we're now at a point where we're going to see [AI] 我们现在正处在一个我们将要看到的时刻 just an extraordinary amount of absolute progress. [AI] 这绝对是一个巨大的进步。 and. of course. things are going to continue to also accelerate [AI] 和当然事情也将继续加速发展 from this point. [AI] 从这一点来说。 So as we look forward to the coming years and decades. [AI] 因此,当我们展望未来几年和几十年时。 I think that means that we're going to see things that we're really not prepared for. [AI] 我认为这意味着我们将看到我们真正没有准备好的事情。 We're going to see things that astonish us. [AI] 我们将看到令我们惊讶的事情。 The second key thing [AI] 第二个关键问题 is that the machines are. in a limited sense. beginning to think. [AI] 这是机器的问题。在有限的意义上。开始思考。 And by this. I don't mean human-level AI. [AI] 通过这个。我不是说人类水平的人工智能。 or science fiction artificial intelligence; [AI] 或者科幻小说中的人工智能; I simply mean that machines and algorithms are making decisions. [AI] 我只是说机器和算法在做决定。 They're solving problems. and most importantly. they're learning. [AI] 他们在解决问题。最重要的是。他们在学习。 In fact. if there's one technology that is truly central to this [AI] 事实上如果有一种技术是真正的核心 and has really become the driving force behind this. [AI] 并真正成为这背后的驱动力。 it's machine learning. [AI] 这是机器学习。 which is just becoming this incredibly powerful. [AI] 它正变得如此强大。 disruptive. scalable technology. [AI] 引起混乱的可扩展技术。 One of the best examples I've seen of that recently [AI] 这是我最近看到的最好的例子之一 was what Google's DeepMind division was able to do [AI] 这就是谷歌的DeepMind部门能够做到的 with its AlphaGo system. [AI] 它的AlphaGo系统。 Now. this is the system that was able to beat the best player in the world [AI] 现在这是一个能够击败世界上最好的球员的系统 at the ancient game of Go. [AI] 在古老的围棋比赛中。 Now. at least to me. [AI] 现在至少对我来说是这样。 there are two things that really stand out about the game of Go. [AI] 围棋有两件事非常突出。 One is that as you're playing the game. [AI] 一个是当你玩游戏的时候。 the number of configurations that the board can be in [AI] 电路板可以使用的配置数 is essentially infinite. [AI] 本质上是无限的。 There are actually more possibilities than there are atoms in the universe. [AI] 实际上,宇宙中存在的可能性比原子还多。 So what that means is. [AI] 这意味着什么。 you're never going to be able to build a computer to win at the game of Go [AI] 你永远也无法建造一台电脑来赢得围棋比赛 the way chess was approached. for example. [AI] 下棋的方法。例如 which is basically to throw brute-force computational power at it. [AI] 基本上就是用蛮力来计算。 So clearly. a much more sophisticated. thinking-like approach is needed. [AI] 很清楚。一个更加复杂的系统。需要像思维一样的方法。 The second thing that really stands out is that. [AI] 第二件真正突出的事情是。 if you talk to one of the championship Go players. [AI] 如果你和其中一个冠军球员交谈,那就去吧。 this person cannot necessarily even really articulate what exactly it is [AI] 这个人甚至不可能真正清楚地说出它到底是什么 they're thinking about as they play the game. [AI] 他们一边玩游戏一边思考。 It's often something that's very intuitive. [AI] 这通常是非常直观的。 it's almost just like a feeling about which move they should make. [AI] 这几乎就像是一种他们应该采取什么行动的感觉。 So given those two qualities. [AI] 考虑到这两个特点。 I would say that playing Go at a world champion level [AI] 我想说的是,在世界冠军级别上打围棋 really ought to be something that's safe from automation. [AI] 真的应该是不受自动化影响的东西。 and the fact that it isn't should really raise a cautionary flag for us. [AI] 事实并非如此,这应该给我们敲响警钟。 And the reason is that we tend to draw a very distinct line. [AI] 原因是我们倾向于画一条非常清晰的线。 and on one side of that line are all the jobs and tasks [AI] 在这条线的一边是所有的工作和任务 that we perceive as being on some level fundamentally routine and repetitive [AI] 我们认为在某种程度上基本上是例行的和重复的 and predictable. [AI] 而且可以预测。 And we know that these jobs might be in different industries. [AI] 我们知道这些工作可能在不同的行业。 they might be in different occupations and at different skill levels. [AI] 他们可能从事不同的职业,具有不同的技能水平。 but because they are innately predictable. [AI] 但因为它们是天生可预测的。 we know they're probably at some point going to be susceptible [AI] 我们知道他们可能会在某个时候变得敏感 to machine learning. [AI] 机器学习。 and therefore. to automation. [AI] 因此。到自动化。 And make no mistake -- that's a lot of jobs. [AI] 别搞错了,这是很多工作。 That's probably something on the order of roughly half [AI] 这大概是一半左右 the jobs in the economy. [AI] 经济中的就业机会。 But then on the other side of that line. [AI] 但在那条线的另一边。 we have all the jobs that require some capability [AI] 我们有所有需要一些能力的工作 that we perceive as being uniquely human. [AI] 我们认为是独一无二的人类。 and these are the jobs that we think are safe. [AI] 我们认为这些工作是安全的。 Now. based on what I know about the game of Go. [AI] 现在根据我对围棋的了解。 I would've guessed that it really ought to be on the safe side of that line. [AI] 我猜它真的应该在那条线的安全一边。 But the fact that it isn't. and that Google solved this problem. [AI] 但事实并非如此,谷歌解决了这个问题。 suggests that that line is going to be very dynamic. [AI] 这表明这条线将是非常动态的。 It's going to shift. [AI] 它会改变的。 and it's going to shift in a way that consumes more and more jobs and tasks [AI] 它将以一种消耗越来越多工作和任务的方式转变 that we currently perceive as being safe from automation. [AI] 我们目前认为自动化是安全的。 The other key thing to understand [AI] 另一个需要理解的关键问题 is that this is by no means just about low-wage jobs or blue-collar jobs. [AI] 这绝不仅仅是低薪工作或蓝领工作。 or jobs and tasks done by people [AI] 或者人们做的工作和任务 that have relatively low levels of education. [AI] 教育水平相对较低的。 There's lots of evidence to show [AI] 有很多证据可以证明 that these technologies are rapidly climbing the skills ladder. [AI] 这些技术正在迅速提升技能。 So we already see an impact on professional jobs -- [AI] 因此,我们已经看到了对专业工作的影响-- tasks done by people like accountants. [AI] 由像会计师这样的人完成的任务。 financial analysts. [AI] 金融分析师。 journalists. [AI] 记者。 lawyers. radiologists and so forth. [AI] 律师。放射科医生等等。 So a lot of the assumptions that we make [AI] 所以我们做了很多假设 about the kind of occupations and tasks and jobs [AI] 关于职业、任务和工作的类型 that are going to be threatened by automation in the future [AI] 未来将受到自动化的威胁 are very likely to be challenged going forward. [AI] 很可能在未来受到挑战。 So as we put these trends together. [AI] 所以我们把这些趋势放在一起。 I think what it shows is that we could very well end up in a future [AI] 我认为这表明我们很可能在未来结束 with significant unemployment. [AI] 失业率高企。 Or at a minimum. [AI] 或者至少。 we could face lots of underemployment or stagnant wages. [AI] 我们可能面临大量的就业不足或工资停滞。 maybe even declining wages. [AI] 甚至可能是工资下降。 And. of course. soaring levels of inequality. [AI] 和当然不平等程度不断加剧。 All of that. of course. is going to put a terrific amount of stress [AI] 所有这些。当然会给你带来巨大的压力 on the fabric of society. [AI] 在社会结构上。 But beyond that. there's also a fundamental economic problem. [AI] 但除此之外。还有一个根本的经济问题。 and that arises because jobs are currently the primary mechanism [AI] 这是因为工作是目前的主要机制 that distributes income. and therefore purchasing power. [AI] 分配收入。因此,购买力。 to all the consumers that buy the products and services we're producing. [AI] 所有购买我们生产的产品和服务的消费者。 In order to have a vibrant market economy. [AI] 为了有一个充满活力的市场经济。 you've got to have lots and lots of consumers [AI] 你必须有很多很多的消费者 that are really capable of buying the products and services that are being produced. [AI] 他们确实有能力购买正在生产的产品和服务。 If you don't have that. then you run the risk [AI] 如果你没有。那你就去冒险 of economic stagnation. [AI] 经济停滞。 or maybe even a declining economic spiral. [AI] 甚至可能是经济螺旋式下降。 as there simply aren't enough customers out there to buy the products and services being produced. [AI] 因为根本没有足够的客户来购买正在生产的产品和服务。 It's really important to realize [AI] 认识到这一点非常重要 that all of us as individuals rely on access to that market economy [AI] 我们每个人都依赖于进入市场经济 in order to be successful. [AI] 为了成功。 You can visualize that by thinking in terms of one really exceptional person. [AI] 你可以用一个真正与众不同的人来想象这一点。 Imagine for a moment you take. say. Steve Jobs. [AI] 想象一下你所做的一切。说史蒂夫·乔布斯。 and you drop him on an island all by himself. [AI] 你把他一个人扔到岛上。 On that island. he's going to be running around. [AI] 在那个岛上。他会到处乱跑。 gathering coconuts just like anyone else. [AI] 像其他人一样采集椰子。 He's really not going to be anything special. [AI] 他真的不会有什么特别的。 and the reason. of course. is that there is no market [AI] 以及原因。当然就是没有市场 for him to scale his incredible talents across. [AI] 让他展示自己不可思议的才能。 So access to this market is really critical to us as individuals. [AI] 因此,进入这个市场对我们个人来说是非常关键的。 and also to the entire system in terms of it being sustainable. [AI] 以及整个系统的可持续性。 So the question then becomes: What exactly could we do about this? [AI] 所以问题就变成了:我们到底能做些什么? And I think you can view this through a very utopian framework. [AI] 我认为你可以通过一个非常乌托邦的框架来看待这一点。 You can imagine a future where we all have to work less. [AI] 你可以想象一个我们都必须少工作的未来。 we have more time for leisure. more time to spend with our families. [AI] 我们有更多的时间休闲。有更多的时间和家人在一起。 more time to do things that we find genuinely rewarding and so forth. [AI] 更多的时间去做我们认为真正值得做的事情等等。 And I think that's a terrific vision. [AI] 我认为这是一个很棒的愿景。 That's something that we should absolutely strive to move toward. [AI] 这是我们绝对应该努力实现的目标。 But at the same time. I think we have to be realistic. [AI] 但与此同时。我认为我们必须实事求是。 and we have to realize [AI] 我们必须意识到 that we're very likely to face a significant income distribution problem. [AI] 我们很可能面临一个重大的收入分配问题。 A lot of people are likely to be left behind. [AI] 很多人可能会被甩在后面。 And I think that in order to solve that problem. [AI] 我认为为了解决这个问题。 we're ultimately going to have to find a way [AI] 我们最终必须找到一条路 to decouple incomes from traditional work. [AI] 使收入与传统工作脱钩。 And the best. more straightforward way I know to do that [AI] 而且是最好的。我知道的更直接的方法是这样做 is some kind of a guaranteed income or universal basic income. [AI] 是某种有保障的收入或普遍的基本收入。 Now. basic income is becoming a very important idea. [AI] 现在基本收入正在成为一个非常重要的概念。 It's getting a lot of traction and attention. [AI] 它得到了很大的吸引力和关注。 there are a lot of important pilot projects [AI] 有许多重要的试点项目 and experiments going on throughout the world. [AI] 以及世界各地正在进行的实验。 My own view is that a basic income is not a panacea; [AI] 我个人的观点是,基本收入不是万能药; it's not necessarily a plug-and-play solution. [AI] 它不一定是即插即用的解决方案。 but rather. it's a place to start. [AI] 而是。这是一个开始。 It's an idea that we can build on and refine. [AI] 这是一个我们可以建立和完善的想法。 For example. one thing that I have written quite a lot about [AI] 例如有一件事我写了很多 is the possibility of incorporating explicit incentives into a basic income. [AI] 是将明确的激励措施纳入基本收入的可能性。 To illustrate that. [AI] 为了说明这一点。 imagine that you are a struggling high school student. [AI] 想象一下,你是一个挣扎的高中生。 Imagine that you are at risk of dropping out of school. [AI] 想象一下你有辍学的危险。 And yet. suppose you know that at some point in the future. [AI] 然而。假设你在将来的某个时候知道这一点。 no matter what. [AI] 不管怎样。 you're going to get the same basic income as everyone else. [AI] 你将获得和其他人一样的基本收入。 Now. to my mind. that creates a very perverse incentive [AI] 现在在我看来。这就产生了一种非常反常的激励 for you to simply give up and drop out of school. [AI] 让你放弃学业,辍学。 So I would say. let's not structure things that way. [AI] 我可以这么说。让我们不要那样安排事情。 Instead. let's pay people who graduate from high school somewhat more [AI] 相反让我们给高中毕业的人多付点钱 than those who simply drop out. [AI] 而不是那些直接辍学的人。 And we can take that idea of building incentives into a basic income. [AI] 我们可以将激励措施纳入基本收入。 and maybe extend it to other areas. [AI] 也许可以扩展到其他领域。 For example. we might create an incentive to work in the community [AI] 例如我们可以创造一种在社区工作的激励 to help others. [AI] 帮助别人。 or perhaps to do positive things for the environment. and so forth. [AI] 或者也许是为了对环境做一些积极的事情。等等 So by incorporating incentives into a basic income. [AI] 因此,通过将激励措施纳入基本收入。 we might actually improve it. [AI] 我们可能会改进它。 and also. perhaps. take at least a couple of steps [AI] 还有。可能至少采取两个步骤 towards solving another problem [AI] 解决另一个问题 that I think we're quite possibly going to face in the future. [AI] 我认为我们很可能会在未来面对。 and that is. how do we all find meaning and fulfillment. [AI] 就是这样。我们如何找到意义和实现。 and how do we occupy our time [AI] 我们如何打发时间 in a world where perhaps there's less demand for traditional work? [AI] 在一个对传统工作需求较少的世界里? So by extending and refining a basic income. [AI] 因此,通过扩大和完善基本收入。 I think we can make it look better. [AI] 我想我们可以让它看起来更好。 and we can also. perhaps. make it more politically and socially acceptable [AI] 我们也可以。可能让它在政治上和社会上更容易被接受 and feasible -- [AI] 切实可行-- and. of course. by doing that. [AI] 和当然通过这样做。 we increase the odds that it will actually come to be. [AI] 我们增加了它真正实现的可能性。 I think one of the most fundamental. [AI] 我认为这是最基本的问题之一。 almost instinctive objections [AI] 几乎是本能的反对 that many of us have to the idea of a basic income. [AI] 我们中的许多人不得不接受基本收入的概念。 or really to any significant expansion of the safety net. [AI] 或者说是对安全网的任何重大扩张。 is this fear that we're going to end up with too many people [AI] 是不是担心我们会有太多的人 riding in the economic cart. [AI] 坐在经济车上。 and not enough people pulling that cart. [AI] 而且拉车的人还不够多。 And yet. really. the whole point I'm making here. of course. [AI] 然而。真正地我在这里说的全部要点。当然 is that in the future. [AI] 这是将来的事。 machines are increasingly going to be capable of pulling that cart for us. [AI] 机器越来越有能力为我们拉车。 That should give us more options [AI] 这应该给我们更多的选择 for the way we structure our society and our economy. [AI] 我们构建社会和经济的方式。 And I think eventually. it's going to go beyond simply being an option. [AI] 我想最终。这将不仅仅是一种选择。 and it's going to become an imperative. [AI] 这将成为当务之急。 The reason. of course. is that all of this is going to put [AI] 原因。当然这一切都会使 such a degree of stress on our society. [AI] 我们的社会承受着如此程度的压力。 and also because jobs are that mechanism [AI] 也因为工作是一种机制 that gets purchasing power to consumers [AI] 这让消费者获得了购买力 so they can then drive the economy. [AI] 这样他们就能推动经济。 If. in fact. that mechanism begins to erode in the future. [AI] 如果事实上这一机制在未来开始削弱。 then we're going to need to replace it with something else [AI] 然后我们需要用别的东西来代替它 or we're going to face the risk [AI] 否则我们将面临风险 that our whole system simply may not be sustainable. [AI] 我们的整个系统可能根本不可持续。 But the bottom line here is that I really think [AI] 但这里的底线是我真的认为 that solving these problems. [AI] 解决这些问题。 and especially finding a way to build a future economy [AI] 特别是找到一条建设未来经济的道路 that works for everyone. [AI] 这对每个人都适用。 at every level of our society. [AI] 在我们社会的各个层面。 is going to be one of the most important challenges that we all face [AI] 这将是我们所有人都面临的最重要的挑战之一 in the coming years and decades. [AI] 在未来的几年和几十年里。 Thank you very much. [AI] 非常感谢你。 (Applause) [AI] (掌声)

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