声明: 本站全部内容源自互联网,不进行任何盈利行为
仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
What is bioenergy? Bioenergy is not ethanol.
什么是生物能源？生物能源不是乙醇。
Bioenergy isn't global warming. Bioenergy is
生物能源也不是全球变暖。生物能源
something which seems counterintuitive. Bioenergy
与很多人想象的东西不是一回事。生物能源
is oil. It's gas. It's coal. And part of building
石油，是煤炭，是通向
that bridge to the future, to the point where we
未来的桥梁的一部分。在那个彼岸，我们终于能够
can actually see the oceans in a rational way, or
理性地看待我们的海洋，或者
put up these geo-spatial orbits that will twirl or
建立这些地理空间轨道，让它们能高速旋转或者
do microwaves or stuff, is going to depend on how
小幅度地波动，这些都将取决于
we understand bioenergy and manage it. And to do
我们如何理解并管理好生物能源。要做到这些，
that, you really have to look first at agriculture.
你必须首先了解农业。
So we've been planting stuff for 11,000 years. And
人类种植农作物的历史已经有11000年了。
in the measure that we plant stuff, what we learn
在种植的过程中，我们学会了
from agriculture is you've got to deal with pests,
如何对付害虫，
you've got to deal with all types of awful things,
还要面对各种各样的麻烦，
you've got to cultivate stuff. In the measure
培育出新的作物。了解到
that you learn how to use water to cultivate, then
如何用水来灌溉农田后，
you're going to be able to spread beyond the Nile.
你还要能够把尼罗河水抽取上来。
You're going to be able to power stuff, so irrigation
你需要有动力设备，才能实现灌溉
makes a difference.
产量就会大不相同。
Irrigation starts to make you be allowed to plant
灌溉使你能够随心所欲地种植农作物，
stuff where you want it, as opposed to where the
而不是只能种在
rivers flood. You start getting this organic
河水能够流到的地方。你可以开展这种有机农业，
agriculture; you start putting machinery onto this
你开始使用机械设备进行生产。
stuff. Machinery, with a whole bunch of water,
机械化，结合大量的水，
leads to very large-scale agriculture.
使大规模的农业生产成为可能。
You put together machines and water, and you get
运用机械及水，得到了
landscapes that look like this. And then you get
现在这样一幅图景。然后这样的一些
sales that look like this. It's brute force. So
产品就能够销售出去。这是巨大外力的作用。
what you've been doing in agriculture is you start
这样一个发展农业的过程，是从
out with something that's a reasonably natural
一个原本相当自然的体系起步，
system. You start taming that natural system. You
最终去驯服这个自然体系。
put a lot of force behind that natural system. You
你把很多外力施加于这个自然体系。
put a whole bunch of pesticides and herbicides --
你使用了大量的杀虫剂和除草剂
(Laughter) -- behind that natural system, and you
（笑声）在这个自然系统中。
end up with systems that look like this.
你最终把这个系统改造成这个样子。
And it's all brute force. And that's the way we've
这是在蛮干。这也是我们
been approaching energy. So the lesson in
取得能源的方式。应此
agriculture is that you can actually change the
农业给我们带来的教训是，你可以
system that's based on brute force as you start
在使用大规模外力作用于一个体系的时候
merging that system and learning that system and
融入这个体系，研究这个体系并将
actually applying biology. And you move from a
生物学运用于其中。你从遵循
discipline of engineering, you move from a
机械的原理，运用化学的原理，转为
discipline of chemistry, into a discipline of
遵循生物学的原则。
biology. And probably one of the most important
这个世界上最重要的人之一，
human beings on the planet is this guy behind me.
就是我身后的这个人。
This is a guy called Norman Borlaug. He won the
他的名字叫Norman Borlaug。
Nobel Prize. He's got the Congressional Medal of
他得到了诺贝尔奖。还获得了国会荣誉奖章。
Honor. He deserves all of this stuff. And he
这一切都是他应得的。
deserves this stuff because he probably has fed
因为他的贡献是让更多的人吃饱饭。
more people than any other human being alive
对此他做出的贡献比任何其他人都大。
because he researched how to put biology behind
他把生物学理论用于育种。
seeds. He did this in Mexico. The reason why India
他在墨西哥完成这项研究。这就是为什么
and China no longer have these massive famines is
印度和中国不再有那么多人挨饿。
because Norman Borlaug taught them how to grow
Norman Borlaug教他们如何用更高效的
grains in a more efficient way and launched the
方法种植粮食作物，掀起一场
Green Revolution. That is something that a lot of
绿色革命。很多人对此
people have criticized. But of course, those are
持批评的态度。当然，那是因为，那些人
people who don't realize that China and India,
没有意识到，中国和印度
instead of having huge amounts of starving people,
不仅不再挨饿，
are exporting grains.
并且在出口粮食。
And the irony of this particular system is the
具有讽刺意味的是，这个方法
place where he did the research, which was Mexico,
在他进行这项研究的地方——墨西哥
didn't adopt this technology, ignored this
这项技术没有得到应用，反而是被忽视。
technology, talked about why this technology
有人认为这项技术还有欠考虑的地方，
should be thought about, but not really applied.
而没有真正去应用它。
And Mexico remains one of the largest grain
墨西哥仍旧是世界上最大的
importers on the planet because it doesn't apply
谷物进口国，因为他们没有应用
technology that was discovered in Mexico. And in
在他们的国家发明的这项技术。
fact, hasn't recognized this man, to the point
事实上，他们并不认同这个人，
where there aren't statues of this man all over
墨西哥没有这个人的塑像。
Mexico. There are in China and India. And the
而在中国和印度都有。
Institute that this guy ran has now moved to
这个人设立的研究机构现在搬到了
India. That is the difference between adopting
印度。这就是谈论一项技术和应用
technologies and discussing technologies.
这项技术二者之间的区别。
Now, it's not just that this guy fed a huge amount
现在，不仅仅是这个人的技术让世界上大量
of people in the world. It's that this is the net
的人有饭吃，而且，这示范了
effect in terms of what technology does, if you
科学技术所能起到的作用。如果
understand biology.
你懂得生物学的话。
What happened in agriculture? Well, if you take
农业发生了怎样的变化？如果你回头看
agriculture over a century, agriculture in about
一个世纪以前的农业，
1900 would have been recognizable to somebody
1900年的农业跟一千年前的
planting a thousand years earlier. Yeah, the plows look
种植方法没有很大的区别。是的，看起来，犁的样子
different. The machines were tractors or stuff
有些不同。人们用上了拖拉机等机械
instead of mules, but the farmer would have
而不是骡子，但是农民们
understood: this is what the guy's doing, this is
知道，这仍是人在操作，
why he's doing it, this is where he's going. What
他还是要这么做，没什么太大的不同。
really started to change in agriculture is when
农业真正开始改变
you started moving from this brute force
始自从使用大规模的
engineering and chemistry into biology, and that's
机械和化学力量转为运用生物学。并且
where you get your productivity increases. And as
从此生产力大大提高了。
you do that stuff, here's what happens to
自从你那么做以后，产量
productivity.
这样的变化：
Basically, you go from 250 hours to produce 100
基本上，产量从每250个小时生产100蒲式耳，
bushels, to 40, to 15, to five. Agricultural labor
变为40、15，甚至5个小时就可以生产这么多。农业劳动力
productivity increased seven times, 1950 to 2000,
的生产效率提高了7倍，从1950年到2000年间，
whereas the rest of the economy increased about
其他的经济活动提高的程度是
2.5 times. This is an absolutely massive increase
2.5倍。这样的提高真是突飞猛进，
in how much is produced per person.
人均产出大大增加。
The effect of this, of course, is it's not just
当然，这种效果，看上去
amber waves of grain, it is mountains of stuff.
不仅是麦浪滚滚，而是堆积如山了。
And 50 percent of the EU budget is going to subsidize
结果是欧盟百分之五十的预算用于
agriculture from mountains of stuff that people
对农业的补贴，补贴给人们生产出的这些粮食，
have overproduced.
无疑已经是过度生产。
This would be a good outcome for energy. And of
能源要是也有这样的局面就好了。
course, by now, you're probably saying to
当然，听到这里，你也许会对自己说，
yourself, "Self, I thought I came to a talk about
“嘿，我想我是来听有关能源的演讲，
energy and here's this guy talking about biology."
可是这家伙在这里大谈生物。”
So where's the link between these two things?
那么，这两个事物间的联系是什么呢？
One of the ironies of this whole system is we're
整个体系中具有讽刺意味的一点是，
discussing what to do about a system that we don't
我们在讨论对一个我们所不了解的体系要做点什么。
understand. We don't even know what oil is. We
我们甚至都不知道石油到底是什么。
don't know where oil comes from. I mean,
我们不知道石油是从哪里来的。
literally, it's still a source of debate what
事实上，这至今都是有争议的，
this black river of stuff is and where it comes
这流动着的黑色物质到底是什么，是从哪里
from. The best assumption, and one of the best
来的。最靠谱的假说和猜测，
guesses in this stuff, is that this stuff comes
这种物质来自于这些东西。
out of this stuff, that these things absorb
这些东西吸收
sunlight, rot under pressure for millions of
阳光，在压力的作用之下腐烂
years, and you get these black rivers.
经过了上百万年，变成了这黑色河流。
Now, the interesting thing about that thesis -- if
那么，这个理论有意思的地方在于，
that thesis turns out to be true -- is that oil,
如果这个理论是成立的，那么石油
and all hydrocarbons, turned out to be
以及所有的碳氢化合物，都是
concentrated sunlight. And if you think of
浓缩的阳光。如果你再来看
bioenergy, bioenergy isn't ethanol. Bioenergy is
生物能源，生物能源不是乙醇，生物能源是
taking the sun, concentrating it in amoebas,
来自于太阳，（太阳的能量）浓缩在变形虫中，
concentrating it in plants, and maybe that's why
浓缩在植物里，可能那就是
you get these rainbows.
为什么有这些彩虹（一般的东西）。
And as you're looking at this system, if
你在审视这个体系的时候，如果
hydrocarbons are concentrated sunlight, then
碳氢化合物是浓缩的阳光，
bioenergy works in a different way. And we've got
生物能源是以不同的方式起作用的。我们必须
to start thinking of oil and other hydrocarbons as
把石油和其他碳氢化合物看作是
part of these solar panels.
太阳能板的一部分。
Maybe that's one of the reasons why if you fly
也许这就是其中的一个原因，当你飞过得克萨斯西部时，
over west Texas, the types of wells that you're
看到那些油井的景象
beginning to see don't look unlike those pictures
似曾相识，
of Kansas and those irrigated plots.
它们与堪萨斯的灌溉图景大同小异。
This is how you farm oil. And as you think of
这就是如何“收获”石油的景象。当你想象
farming oil and how oil has evolved, we started
石油可以这样收获以及它们是如何演化来的，我们开始
with this brute force approach. And then what did
使用采用这种大规模外力的做法。然后，我们
we learn? Then we learned we had to go bigger. And
学到了什么呢？我们学到了必须更大规模地干。
then what'd we learn? Then we have to go even
然后又学到什么呢？那就是还要干的
bigger. And we are getting really destructive as
更大。我们变得破坏性越来越大，
we're going out and farming this bioenergy.
在以这种方式收获生物能源的过程中。
These are the Athabasca tar sands, and there's an
这是阿萨巴斯卡油砂田，油井
enormous amount -- first of mining, the largest
星罗棋布，第一步是开采，
trucks in the world are working here, and then
世界上最大的卡车在这里工作。
you've got to pull out this black sludge, which is
然后人们把这些黑色泥沙拉走，
basically oil that doesn't flow. It's tied to the
这些黑泥基本上就是不流动的石油。
sand. And then you've got to use a lot of steam to
因为石油跟泥沙结合在一起了。下一步就要用
separate it, which only works at today's oil
大量的蒸气使它们分离，其成本之高
prices.
只有在现在的高油价下才有可能。
Coal. Coal turns out to be virtually the same
煤炭事实上是差不多同样的
stuff. It is probably plants, except that these
东西。其来源也是植物，不同之处在于
have been burned and crushed under pressure.
这些植物曾被焚烧，再被高压压碎。
So you take something like this, you burn it, you
你就用这一类东西，经过燃烧，把它们置于
put it under pressure, and likely as not, you get
压力之下，多半不会得到这样的
this. Although, again, I stress: we don't know.
东西。尽管这样，我一再强调：我们并不知道真相。
Which is curious as we debate all this stuff. But
我们就这些事情进行辩论是出于好奇。
as you think of coal, this is what burned wheat
当你在考虑煤炭时，它们看起来跟燃烧过的
kernels look like. Not entirely unlike coal.
麦子很相似。这看起来跟煤炭没有太大差别。
And of course, coalmines are very dangerous
当然，开采煤炭是非常危险的事情，
places because in some of these coalmines, you
因为在一些煤矿里，你会
get gas. When that gas blows up, people die. So
发现有毒气体。当这些气体爆炸时，是会死人的。
you're producing a biogas out of coal in some
这些生物气体（比如沼气）存在于有些
mines, but not in others.
煤矿，另外一些煤矿则没有。
Any place you see a differential, there're some
每个地方都有些不同之处，有些问题
interesting questions. There's some questions as
很有意思。有的问题诸如
to what you should be doing with this stuff. But
你应该如何对待这些东西。但是
again, coal. Maybe the same stuff, maybe the same
仍以煤炭为例，它们可能是同样的东西，可能
system, maybe bioenergy, and you're applying
是生成与同样的体系，可能就是生物能源，你都在运用
exactly the same technology.
相同的技术。
Here's your brute force approach. Once you get
这就是施加大规模外力的方法。一旦你能够
through your brute force approach, then you just
成功地使用这种方法，结果是
rip off whole mountaintops. And you end up with
整个山头被夷平。最终是
the single largest source of carbon emissions,
造成最大单一来源的碳排放，
which are coal-fired gas plants. That is probably
即燃煤燃气发电厂。这也许
not the best use of bioenergy.
并不是对生物能源的最好的利用。
As you think of what are the alternatives to this
当你试图发现还有什么更好的选择，
system -- it's important to find alternatives
找到一种替代性的方法是很重要的，
because it turns out that the U.S. is dwindling in
因为人们意识到美国的
its petroleum reserves, but it is not dwindling in
石油储备在不断减少，但是
its coal reserves, nor is China. There are huge
煤炭的储备并未减少，中国也是如此。
coal reserves that are sitting out there, and
煤炭的储备量非常之大，
we've got to start thinking of them as biological
我们应该开始考虑把煤炭看作
energy, because if we keep treating them as
生物能源，因为如果我们继续视其为
chemical energy, or engineering energy, we're
化学能源，或机械能源，我们
going to be in deep doo-doo.
会陷入大麻烦。
Gas is a similar issue. Gas is also a biological
天然气也是类似的。天然气也是一种
product. And as you think of gas, well, you're
生物产品。当你想到天然气时，
familiar with gas. And here's a different way of
你会觉得很熟悉。开采天然气的方法
mining coal.
是不同于采煤的。
This is called coal bed methane. Why is this
这种气体称为煤层甲烷气。为什么
picture interesting? Because if coal turns out to
这个画面很有趣？因为如果煤炭真的是
be concentrated plant life, the reason why you may
浓缩的植物体，那么你在
get a differential in gas output between one mine
不同的煤矿发现有不同的气体
and another -- the reason why one mine may blow up
有的煤矿会爆炸
and another one may not blow up -- may be because
而有的又不会，可能都是因为
there's stuff eating that stuff and producing gas.
有些东西吃掉了另一些东西而产生气体。
This is a well-known phenomenon. (Laughter) You
这是一个广为人知的现象（大笑）。你
eat certain things, you produce a lot of gas. It
吃了某种东西后，会产生很多气体。
may turn out that biological processes in coalmines
那可能也是在生物进程中煤矿中发生的
have the same process. If that is true, then
类似过程。如果这是真的，
one of the ways of getting the energy out of coal
那么从煤炭中获取能源的方法
may not be to rip whole mountaintops off, and it
就可以不必夷平整个山头，
may not be to burn coal. It may be to have stuff
也可能不必燃烧煤炭。也许可以对
process that coal in a biological fashion as you
煤炭进行某种生物处理，就像在
did in agriculture.
农业中所做的那样。
That is what bioenergy is. It is not ethanol. It
这才是生物能源的含义。而不是什么乙醇。
is not subsidies to a few companies. It is not
并不是说要补贴几个公司，也不是
importing corn into Iowa because you've built so
进口玉米到爱荷华州，去喂饱那些已经建起来的
many of these ethanol plants. It is beginning to
乙醇工厂。而是要开始
understand the transition that occurred in
去理解发生在农业中的转变。
agriculture, from brute force into biological
从大规模外力的模式转为使用生物力量。
force. And in the measure that you can do that,
在这么做的过程中，
you can clean some stuff, and you can clean it
你可以使很多东西变得清洁，
pretty quickly.
很快就可以做到。
We already have some indicators of productivity on
我们在这方面已经有了一些生产力的指标。
this stuff. OK, if you put steam into coal fields
如果你将蒸气打入煤矿
or petroleum fields that have been running for
或者油田，它们已经被开发了
decades, you can get a really substantial
几十年，你可以获得明显的
increase, like an eight-fold increase, in your
增产，比如产量增加8倍。
output. This is just the beginning stages of this
这还只是最开始的
stuff.
步骤。
And as you think of biomaterials, this guy -- who
在你考虑生物材料时，这个人，
did part of the sequencing of the human genome,
就是他完成了对人类基因组测序的一部分工作，
who just doubled the databases of genes and
因为他的工作，基因和蛋白质数据库的数据量
proteins known on earth by sailing around the
倍增，他为此走遍了全世界，
world -- has been thinking about how you structure
他也在考虑你将如何构建这个体系。
this. And there's a series of smart people
还有很多高人
thinking about this. And they've been putting
在考虑这个问题。他们走到一起
together companies like Synthetic Genomics, like,
成立了像Synthetic Genomics这样的公司，
a Cambria, like Codon, and what those companies are
还有Cambria、Condon等公司，这些公司
trying to do is to think of, how do you apply
都在试图发现，你如何能够运用
biological principles to avoid brute force?
生物学原则来避免使用大规模的外力？
Think of it in the following terms. Think of it as
请用以下的理念去考虑问题。把这事想象成
beginning to program stuff for specific purposes.
为了某种特殊目的开始一项计划。
Think of the cell as a hardware. Think of the
把细胞想象成硬件。把
genes as a software. And in the measure that you
基因想象成软件。在你以这种方式
begin to think of life as code that is
去想象生命的代码
interchangeable, that can become energy, that can
是可以互换的，可以变成能源，也可以
become food, that can become fiber, that can
变成食物，还可以变成纤维，还可以
become human beings, that can become a whole
变成人，可以变成一系列的
series of things, then you've got to shift your
各种东西。然后你必须转换
approach as to how you're going to structure and
你的思维方法，去构思和设想
deal and think about energy in a very different
能源问题，从一个完全不同于以往的
way.
角度。
What are the first principles of this stuff and
什么是有关这些东西的最重要的原则？
where are we heading? This is one of the gentle
我们应向何处去？这是这个星球上最温顺的
giants on the planet. He's one of the nicest human
庞然大物。他是你所见过的人里面
beings you've ever met. His name is Hamilton
最好的人。他的名字叫汉密尔顿-史密斯。
Smith. He won the Nobel for figuring out how to
他因发明如何切分基因而获得诺贝尔奖。
cut genes -- something called restriction enzymes.
这种基因称为限制性内切酶。
He was at Hopkins when he did this, and he's such
他当时在霍普金斯，他是如此
a modest guy that the day he won, his mother
谦虚的一个人，在他获奖的那天，他的母亲
called him and said, "I didn't realize there was
问他说：“我不知道在霍普金斯还有另外一个
another Ham Smith at Hopkins. Do you know he just
Ham Smith。你知道他刚刚获得了
won the Nobel?" (Laughter) I mean, that was Mom,
诺贝尔奖么？”（大笑）我的意思是，这就是母亲。
but anyway, this guy is just a class act. You find
不过，他本人也正是这样的。你会发现
him at the bench every single day, working on a
他每天都在工作台那里，在用
pipette and building stuff. And one of the things
吸液管构建一些东西。他做的事情之一
this guy just built are these things.
就是制造了这些东西。
What is this? This is the first transplant of
这是什么？这是第一次移植的
naked DNA, where you take an entire DNA operating
经过剥离的DNA，你从细胞里提取了整个DNA的
system out of one cell, insert it into a different
运行体系，注入到不同的
cell, and have that cell boot up as a separate
细胞，再把那个细胞培育成另一个
species. That's one month old. You will see stuff
物种。这个细胞已经生存了1个月。下个月你将看到
in the next month that will be just as important
很重要的东西，
as this stuff.
象这个一样重要。
And as you think about this stuff and what the
当你设想这个东西会给我们带来的
implications of this are, we're going to start not
影响的时候，我们正在开始的一种转化，
just converting ethanol from corn with very high
不是那种享有很高的补贴的，将玉米转化为乙醇
subsidies. We're going to start thinking about
的过程，我们正在开始考虑把
biology entering energy. It is very expensive to
生物学用在能源方面。这种转化过程
process this stuff, both in economic terms and in
代价很高，不论从经济的角度看，还是从
energy terms.
能源的角度来说。
This is what accumulates in the tar sands of
这是一种积聚在阿尔伯塔的油砂中的物质，
Alberta. These are sulfur blocks. Because as you
大堆大堆的硫磺。因为我们在从油砂中
separate that petroleum from the sand, and use an
分离石油的时候，要使用
enormous amount of energy inside that vapor --
大量的能源进行蒸馏，
steam to separate this stuff -- you also have to
用蒸汽分离这些物质——你同时会分离出
separate out the sulfur. The difference between
硫磺来。轻质原油与重质原油的差别在于，
light crude and heavy crude -- well, it's about 14
它们的价格每桶相差14美元。
bucks a barrel. That's why you're building these
这就是为什么你会看到这些堆的象金字塔
pyramids of sulfur blocks. And by the way, the
般的硫磺。并且，这些东西的
scale on these things is pretty large.
规模相当大。
Now, if you can take part of the energy content
现在，如果你能够把做这部分工作消耗的能源
out of doing this, you reduce the system, and you
减少的话，你就简化了整个体系，并且
really do start applying biological principles to
开始运用生物学原则于
energy. This has to be a bridge to the point where
能源的生产。这将是联系各种新能源的桥梁，
you can get to wind, to the point where you can
诸如风能的利用，太阳能的利用，
get to solar, to the point where you can get to
以及核能的利用，等等。
nuclear -- and hopefully you won't build the next
希望你今后就不需要在风光秀美的海边，
nuclear plant on a beautiful seashore next to an
在地震断层的附近建设新的核电厂。
earthquake fault. (Laughter) Just a thought.
（大笑）这还仅仅是个设想。
But in the meantime, for the next decade at least,
与此同时，至少在今后的几十年里，
the name of the game is hydrocarbons. And be that
唱主角的都是碳氢化合物。可以是
oil, be that gas, be that coal, this is what we're
石油，可以是天然气，可以是煤炭，都是我们的
dealing with. And before I make this talk too
研究对象。我不想把这个演讲拖得
long, here's what's happening in the current
太长，这里介绍一下目前的
energy system.
能源体系的发展。
86 percent of the energy we consume are
我们消耗的能源的百分之八十六
hydrocarbons. That means 86 percent of the stuff we're
是碳氢化合物。这意味着我们消耗物质的百分之八十六
consuming are probably processed plants and
是植物、变形虫和其他这类物质
amoebas and the rest of the stuff. And there's a
演化而来的。那么这里就有一个
role in here for conservation. There's a role in
环境保护的角色。还有一个
here for alternative stuff, but we've also got to
可替代物质的角色，同时我们必须
get that other portion right.
把其余的部分也做好。
How we deal with that other portion is our bridge
我们如何对待其余的那个比例是
to the future. And as we think of this bridge to
我们通向未来的桥梁。当我们把这看作是通向未来的
the future, one of the things you should ponder
桥梁时，有一件事必须认真思考：
is: we are leaving about two-thirds of the oil today
现在我们把大约三分之二的石油留在
inside those wells. So we're spending an enormous
那些油井中。这样我们花费巨大的
amount of money and leaving most of the energy
开支，把大部分的能源留在
down there. Which, of course, requires more energy
地下。当然，这样做需要更多的能源
to go out and get energy. The ratios become
去获取其他能源。这个比值会变得
idiotic by the time you get to ethanol. It may
很愚蠢，如果你取得的是乙醇的话。
even be a one-to-one ratio on the energy input and
那样做，产出的能源与消耗的能源之比
the energy output. That is a stupid way of
几乎就是一比一。这是在用一种很傻的做法
managing this system.
管理这个体系。
Last point, last graph. One of the things that
最后一点，最后一张图表，我们必须做的
we've got to do is to stabilize oil prices. This
事情之一是稳定石油价格。
is what oil prices look like, OK?
这就是石油价格的走势，对不对？
This is a very bad system because what happens is
这是一个很糟糕的体系，因为你的
your hurdle rate gets set very low. People come up
最低资本预期回收率设置的很低。人们想出了
with really smart ideas for solar panels, or for
很好的太阳能板的设计，或者是利用
wind, or for something else, and then guess what?
风能或其他（新能源）的方式，猜猜会怎么样？
The oil price goes through the floor. That company
石油价格跌破了最低点。那些公司
goes out of business, and then you can bring the
只好破产，然后石油价格又
oil price back up.
重新上涨了。
So if I had one closing and modest suggestion,
因此，我最后要提出一个温和的建议，
let's set a stable oil price in Europe and the
让我们在欧洲和美国设定一个稳定的
United States. How do you do that? Well, let's put
石油价格。怎么能做到呢？那么，我们可以在
a tax on oil that is a non-revenue tax, and it
油价上加一项税——非收入税，
basically says for the next 20 years, the price of
基本理念是说在最近的20年中，石油价格
oil will be -- whatever you want, 35 bucks, 40
将是——随便假设一个数字，35美元也好，
bucks. If the OPEC price falls below that, we tax
40美元也罢。如果欧佩克的油价低于这个价格，我们
it. If the OPEC price goes above that, the tax
就开征这项税。如果油价高于这个价格，这项税
goes away.
就取消。
What does that do for entrepreneurs? What does it
这样做对企业家有什么好处呢？对公司企业
do for companies? It tells people, if you can
有什么好处呢？这可以告诉人们，如果你能以
produce energy for less than 35 bucks a barrel, or
低于35美元或40美元的价格生产能源，
less than 40 bucks a barrel, or less than 50 bucks
或低于50美元一桶的价格生产能源，
a barrel -- let's debate it -- you will have a
我们可以竞争——你就能赢得生意。
business. But let's not put people through this
我们不能让人们进入这样
cycle where it doesn't pay to research because
一种循环，（由于油价的波动）企业付不出研发费用
your company will go out of business as OPEC
而破产，这就等于让欧佩克操纵了石油替代品的研发
drives alternatives and keeps bioenergy from
使生物能源无法取得成功。
happening. Thank you.
谢谢。