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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
Do you ever wonder why we're surrounded with things that help us do everything
[AI] 你有没有想过为什么我们周围都是帮助我们做每件事的东西
faster and faster and faster?
[AI] 越来越快，越来越快？
Communicate faster.
[AI] 沟通更快。
but also work faster. bank faster.
[AI] 而且工作速度更快。银行更快。
travel faster. find a date faster.
[AI] 旅行得更快。更快地找到约会对象。
cook faster. clean faster and do all of it all at the same time?
[AI] 煮得快一点。清洁速度更快，同时完成所有工作？
How do you feel about cramming even more into every waking hour?
[AI] 在醒着的每一个小时里塞进更多的东西，你感觉如何？
Well. to my generation of Americans.
[AI] 好给我们这一代美国人。
speed feels like a birthright.
[AI] 速度感觉像是与生俱来的权利。
Sometimes I think our minimum speed is Mach 3.
[AI] 有时我认为我们的最低速度是3马赫。
Anything less. and we fear losing our competitive edge.
[AI] 少一点。我们担心失去竞争优势。
But even my generation is starting to question
[AI] 但就连我们这一代人也开始质疑
whether we're the masters of speed
[AI] 我们是否是速度大师
or if speed is mastering us.
[AI] 或者如果速度控制着我们。
I'm an anthropologist at the Rand Corporation.
[AI] 我是兰德公司的人类学家。
and while many anthropologists study ancient cultures.
[AI] 当许多人类学家研究古代文化时。
I focus on modern day cultures and how we're adapting
[AI] 我关注现代文化以及我们如何适应
to all of this change happening in the world.
[AI] 感谢世界上发生的所有这些变化。
Recently. I teamed up with an engineer. Seifu Chonde. to study speed.
[AI] 不久前我和一位工程师合作。塞夫·孔德。学习速度。
We were interested both in how people are adapting to this age of acceleration
[AI] 我们都对人们如何适应这个加速发展的时代感兴趣
and its security and policy implications.
[AI] 及其安全和政策影响。
What could our world look like in 25 years
[AI] 25年后我们的世界会是什么样子
if the current pace of change keeps accelerating?
[AI] 如果当前的变化速度继续加快？
What would it mean for transportation.
[AI] 这对运输业意味着什么。
or learning. communication.
[AI] 或者学习。表达
manufacturing. weaponry
[AI] 制造业武器装备
or even natural selection?
[AI] 甚至自然选择？
Will a faster future make us more secure and productive?
[AI] 更快的未来会让我们更安全、更高效吗？
Or will it make us more vulnerable?
[AI] 还是会让我们更加脆弱？
In our research. people accepted acceleration as inevitable.
[AI] 在我们的研究中。人们认为加速是不可避免的。
both the thrills and the lack of control.
[AI] 既兴奋又缺乏控制。
They fear that if they were to slow down.
[AI] 他们担心如果他们放慢脚步。
they might run the risk of becoming obsolete.
[AI] 它们可能面临被淘汰的风险。
They say they'd rather burn out than rust out.
[AI] 他们说他们宁愿烧坏也不愿生锈。
Yet at the same time.
[AI] 但与此同时。
they worry that speed could erode their cultural traditions
[AI] 他们担心速度会侵蚀他们的文化传统
and their sense of home.
[AI] 还有他们的家的感觉。
But even people who are winning at the speed game
[AI] 但即使是在速度比赛中获胜的人
admit to feeling a little uneasy.
[AI] 承认有点不安。
They see acceleration as widening the gap between the haves.
[AI] 他们认为加速增长会扩大富人之间的差距。
the jet-setters who are buzzing around.
[AI] 到处嗡嗡叫的喷气式飞机驾驶员。
and the have-nots.
[AI] 还有穷人。
who are left in the digital dust.
[AI] 谁被留在数字尘埃中。
Yes. we have good reason to forecast that the future will be faster.
[AI] 对我们有充分的理由预测未来会更快。
but what I've come to realize
[AI] 但我已经意识到
is that speed is paradoxical.
[AI] 速度是自相矛盾的。
and like all good paradoxes.
[AI] 就像所有好的悖论一样。
it teaches us about the human experience.
[AI] 它教会我们人类的经验。
as absurd and complex as it is.
[AI] 尽管如此荒谬和复杂。
The first paradox is that we love speed.
[AI] 第一个悖论是我们热爱速度。
and we're thrilled by its intensity.
[AI] 我们为它的强度而激动。
But our prehistoric brains aren't really built for it.
[AI] 但我们的史前大脑并不是为它而建造的。
so we invent roller coasters and race cars and supersonic planes.
[AI] 所以我们发明了过山车、赛车和超音速飞机。
but we get whiplash. carsick.
[AI] 但我们会被鞭打。晕车。
jet-lagged.
[AI] 时差。
We didn't evolve to multitask.
[AI] 我们没有进化到多任务。
Rather. we evolved to do one thing with incredible focus.
[AI] 相当地我们进化成专注于做一件事。
like hunt -- not necessarily with great speed
[AI] 比如亨特——不一定要很快
but with endurance for great distance.
[AI] 但是要有耐力跑很远的距离。
But now there's a widening gap between our biology and our lifestyles.
[AI] 但现在我们的生物学和生活方式之间的差距越来越大。
a mismatch between what our bodies are built for and what we're making them do.
[AI] 我们的身体是为什么而建的，我们让它们做什么，两者之间的不匹配。
It's a phenomenon my mentors have called "Stone Agers in the fast lane."
[AI] 这是我的导师们称之为“快车道上的石器时代人”的现象
(Laughter)
[AI] （众笑）
A second paradox of speed is that it can be measured objectively. Right?
[AI] 速度的第二个悖论是它可以被客观地测量。正当
Miles per hour. gigabytes per second.
[AI] 英里每小时。每秒千兆字节。
But how speed feels.
[AI] 但是速度的感觉。
and whether we like it.
[AI] 以及我们是否喜欢它。
is highly subjective.
[AI] 这是非常主观的。
So we can document
[AI] 所以我们可以记录
that the pace at which we are adopting new technologies is increasing.
[AI] 我们采用新技术的速度正在加快。
For example. it took 85 years from the introduction of the telephone
[AI] 例如自从电话问世以来，花了85年时间
to when the majority of Americans had phones at home.
[AI] 直到大多数美国人在家里都有手机的时候。
In contrast. it only took 13 years for most of us to have smartphones.
[AI] 相反我们大多数人只用了13年就拥有了智能手机。
And how people act and react to speed
[AI] 以及人们对速度的行为和反应
varies by culture and among different people within the same culture.
[AI] 不同的文化以及同一文化中不同的人之间的差异。
Interactions that could be seen as pleasantly brisk and convenient
[AI] 可以被视为愉快、轻松和方便的互动
in some cultures
[AI] 在某些文化中
could be seen as horribly rude in others.
[AI] 在其他人身上可能被视为极其粗鲁。
I mean. you wouldn't go asking for a to-go cup at a Japanese tea ceremony
[AI] 我是说。你不会在日本的茶道上要一杯“围棋杯”
so you could jet off to your next tourist stop.
[AI] 这样你就可以乘飞机去下一个旅游站了。
Would you?
[AI] 你愿意吗？
A third paradox is that speed begets speed.
[AI] 第三个悖论是速度产生速度。
The faster I respond. the more responses I get.
[AI] 我的反应越快。我得到的回应越多。
the faster I have to respond again.
[AI] 我的反应越快。
Having more communication
[AI] 有更多的交流
and information at our fingertips
[AI] 以及触手可及的信息
at any given moment
[AI] 在任何时刻
was supposed to make decision-making easier and more rational.
[AI] 本应使决策更容易、更理性。
But that doesn't really seem to be happening.
[AI] 但这似乎并没有真正发生。
Here's just one more paradox:
[AI] 这里还有一个悖论：
If all of these faster technologies were supposed to free us from drudgery.
[AI] 如果所有这些更快的技术都能让我们从苦工中解脱出来。
why do we all feel so pressed for time?
[AI] 为什么我们都觉得时间紧迫？
Why are we crashing our cars in record numbers.
[AI] 为什么我们要以创纪录的速度撞车。
because we think we have to answer that text right away?
[AI] 因为我们认为我们必须马上回答那篇课文？
Shouldn't life in the fast lane feel a little more fun
[AI] 快车道上的生活难道不应该更有趣一点吗
and a little less anxious?
[AI] 少一点焦虑？
German speakers even have a word for this:
[AI] 说德语的人甚至对此有一个词：
"Eilkrankheit."
[AI] “Eilkrankheit。”
In English. that's "hurry sickness."
[AI] 用英语这就是“急躁症”
When we have to make fast decisions.
[AI] 当我们必须快速做出决定时。
autopilot brain kicks in.
[AI] 自动驾驶仪的大脑启动了。
and we rely on our learned behaviors.
[AI] 我们依靠我们所学的行为。
our reflexes. our cognitive biases.
[AI] 我们的反应。我们的认知偏见。
to help us perceive and respond quickly.
[AI] 帮助我们快速感知和响应。
Sometimes that saves our lives. right?
[AI] 有时这会拯救我们的生命。正当
Fight or flight.
[AI] 战斗或逃跑。
But sometimes. it leads us astray in the long run.
[AI] 但是有时候。从长远来看，它使我们误入歧途。
Oftentimes. when our society has major failures.
[AI] 经常。当我们的社会出现重大失败时。
they're not technological failures.
[AI] 它们不是技术上的失败。
They're failures that happen when we made decisions too quickly
[AI] 当我们太快做出决定时，就会发生失败
on autopilot.
[AI] 自动驾驶仪。
We didn't do the creative or critical thinking required
[AI] 我们没有进行必要的创造性或批判性思考
to connect the dots
[AI] 点到为止
or weed out false information
[AI] 或者剔除虚假信息
or make sense of complexity.
[AI] 或者理解复杂性。
That kind of thinking can't be done fast.
[AI] 这种想法不可能很快完成。
That's slow thinking.
[AI] 那是缓慢的思考。
Two psychologists. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.
[AI] 两位心理学家。丹尼尔·卡尼曼和阿莫斯·特沃斯基。
started pointing this out back in 1974.
[AI] 早在1974年就开始指出这一点。
and we're still struggling to do something with their insights.
[AI] 我们仍在努力利用他们的见解。
All of modern history can be thought of as one spurt of acceleration after another.
[AI] 所有的现代历史都可以看作是一个又一个加速的喷发。
It's as if we think if we just speed up enough.
[AI] 就好像我们在想，如果我们的速度足够快的话。
we can outrun our problems.
[AI] 我们可以解决我们的问题。
But we never do.
[AI] 但我们从来没有这样做过。
We know this in our own lives.
[AI] 我们在自己的生活中都知道这一点。
and policymakers know it. too.
[AI] 决策者也知道这一点。也
So now we're turning to artificial intelligence
[AI] 所以现在我们转向人工智能
to help us make faster and smarter decisions
[AI] 帮助我们做出更快更明智的决策
to process this ever-expanding universe of data.
[AI] 来处理这个不断膨胀的数据世界。
But machines crunching data are no substitute
[AI] 但处理数据的机器是无法替代的
for critical and sustained thinking
[AI] 用于批判性和持续性思考
by humans.
[AI] 人类的。
whose Stone Age brains need a little time to let their impulses subside.
[AI] 他们石器时代的大脑需要一点时间让他们的冲动平息下来。
to slow the mind
[AI] 使头脑迟钝
and let the thoughts flow.
[AI] 让思想流动。
If you're starting to think that we should just hit the brakes.
[AI] 如果你开始认为我们应该踩刹车。
that won't always be the right solution.
[AI] 这并不总是正确的解决方案。
We all know that a train that's going too fast around a bend can derail.
[AI] 我们都知道，一列在转弯处开得太快的火车会出轨。
but Seifu. the engineer.
[AI] 但是西夫。工程师。
taught me that a train that's going too slowly around a bend can also derail.
[AI] 教会了我，一列在转弯处行驶太慢的火车也会出轨。
So managing this spurt of acceleration starts with the understanding
[AI] 因此，管理这种加速的爆发首先是理解
that we have more control over speed than we think we do.
[AI] 我们对速度的控制比我们想象的要多。
individually and as a society.
[AI] 个人和作为一个社会。
Sometimes. we'll need to engineer ourselves to go faster.
[AI] 有时我们需要设计自己，以加快速度。
We'll want to solve gridlock.
[AI] 我们要解决交通堵塞。
speed up disaster relief for hurricane victims
[AI] 加快对飓风灾民的救灾工作
or use 3-D printing to produce what we need on the spot.
[AI] 或者使用3D打印技术现场制作我们需要的东西。
just when we need it.
[AI] 就在我们需要的时候。
Sometimes. though. we'll want to make our surroundings feel slower
[AI] 有时虽然我们想让周围的环境感觉更慢
to engineer the crash out of the speedy experience.
[AI] 在快速体验的基础上设计碰撞。
And it's OK not to be stimulated all the time.
[AI] 不受刺激也没关系。
It's good for adults
[AI] 这对成年人有好处
and for kids.
[AI] 还有孩子们。
Maybe it's boring. but it gives us time to reflect.
[AI] 也许这很无聊。但这给了我们时间反思。
Slow time is not wasted time.
[AI] 慢时间不是浪费时间。
And we need to reconsider what it means to save time.
[AI] 我们需要重新考虑节省时间意味着什么。
Culture and rituals around the world build in slowness.
[AI] 世界各地的文化和仪式都是缓慢发展的。
because slowness helps us reinforce our shared values and connect.
[AI] 因为缓慢有助于加强我们的共同价值观和联系。
And connection is a critical part of being human.
[AI] 而联系是人的重要组成部分。
We need to master speed.
[AI] 我们需要掌握速度。
and that means thinking carefully about the trade-offs of any given technology.
[AI] 这意味着要仔细考虑任何给定技术的利弊。
Will it help you reclaim time that you can use to express your humanity?
[AI] 它会帮助你重新获得时间来表达你的人性吗？
Will it give you hurry sickness? Will it give other people hurry sickness?
[AI] 它会给你带来快感吗？会不会给别人带来急躁症？
If you're lucky enough to decide the pace that you want to travel through life.
[AI] 如果你足够幸运，可以决定你想要的生活节奏。
it's a privilege.
[AI] 这是一种特权。
Use it.
[AI] 使用它。
You might decide that you need both to speed up
[AI] 你可能会决定两者都需要加速
and to create slow time:
[AI] 为了创造慢时间：
time to reflect.
[AI] 是时候反思了。
to percolate
[AI] 渗滤
at your own pace;
[AI] 以你自己的步伐；
time to listen.
[AI] 是时候倾听了。
to empathize.
[AI] 同情。
to rest your mind.
[AI] 让你安心。
to linger at the dinner table.
[AI] 在餐桌旁徘徊。
So as we zoom into the future.
[AI] 所以当我们展望未来的时候。
let's consider setting the technologies of speed.
[AI] 让我们考虑设置速度技术。
the purpose of speed
[AI] 速度的目的
and our expectations of speed
[AI] 以及我们对速度的期望
to a more human pace.
[AI] 以更人性化的步伐。
Thank you.
[AI] 非常感谢。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）