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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
The 2020s were a crux in human history.
[AI] 20世纪20年代是人类历史的一个关键时期。
They began with the first pandemic.
[AI] 他们从第一次大流行开始。
a slap to the face of everyone.
[AI] 给每个人一记耳光。
as they had to acknowledge that they were a single civilization
[AI] 因为他们必须承认他们是一个单一的文明
on a single biosphere.
[AI] 在一个生物圈上。
utterly dependent on science to keep them alive.
[AI] 完全依靠科学来维持生命。
Civilization is a fragile thing.
[AI] 文明是脆弱的。
And although people started the '20s hoping to ignore that profound truth.
[AI] 尽管人们在20年代开始希望忽略这个深刻的事实。
even after the first pandemic.
[AI] 即使在第一次大流行之后。
the great heat waves of 2023 torched any such hope.
[AI] 2023年的巨大热浪点燃了任何这样的希望。
Humans cannot survive combinations of high heat and high humidity
[AI] 人类无法在高温和高湿度的环境中生存
that rise above an index temperature called "wet-bulb 35."
[AI] 高于一个叫做“湿球35”的指数温度
And that year. the wet-bulb 36 events in India. in Southeast Asia
[AI] 那一年。湿球在印度有36个项目。在东南亚
and in the American Midwest
[AI] 在美国中西部
killed so many more people than the first pandemic
[AI] 死亡人数比第一次大流行要多
that it was made clear to everyone things simply had to change.
[AI] 每个人都明白，事情必须改变。
The arrival of the second pandemic put an exclamation mark on all that.
[AI] 第二次大流行的到来给这一切打上了一个惊叹号。
The question at that desperate point was: Could things change?
[AI] 在那个绝望的时刻，问题是：事情会改变吗？
Could humanity stop its destructive ways
[AI] 人类能停止其破坏性的方式吗
and restore balance to its relationship to its biosphere?
[AI] 恢复与生物圈的平衡？
Crucially. could it lower the global average temperature of the earth
[AI] 关键是。它能降低地球的全球平均温度吗
in time to avoid killing millions more people.
[AI] 及时避免再杀害数百万人。
in time to avoid killing millions more people.
[AI] 及时避免再杀害数百万人。
more animals
[AI] 更多的动物
and indeed entire species?
[AI] 甚至整个物种？
Looking back from our perspective 60 years later. this of course looks possible.
[AI] 60年后从我们的角度回顾。这当然看起来是可能的。
because they did it.
[AI] 因为他们做到了。
But it was by no means a sure thing.
[AI] 但这绝不是一件确定的事情。
You have to imagine what it felt like at the time. when panic filled the air.
[AI] 你必须想象一下当时的感觉。当恐慌弥漫时。
and no one could be sure success was even physically possible.
[AI] 没有人能确定成功在物理上是可能的。
Many declared that humanity was doomed.
[AI] 许多人宣称人类注定要灭亡。
This is why that decade gets called "the turbulent 20s"
[AI] 这就是为什么那十年被称为“动荡的20年代”
or "the terrifying 20s."
[AI] 或者“可怕的20多岁”
Only much later did some historians begin to call it "the terrific 20s"
[AI] 直到很久以后，一些历史学家才开始称之为“了不起的20年代”
or even "the roaring 20s."
[AI] 甚至是“咆哮的20多岁”
although that's a historian's joke and as usual. a bad one.
[AI] 尽管这是一个历史学家的玩笑，和往常一样。一个坏的。
although that's a historian's joke and as usual. a bad one.
[AI] 尽管这是一个历史学家的玩笑，和往常一样。一个坏的。
It was not at all like the roaring twenties of a century before.
[AI] 一点也不像一个世纪前的二十年代。
It was much stranger than that.
[AI] 比这更奇怪。
In these critical years. lessons learned in the first pandemic got put to use.
[AI] 在这些关键的年份。在第一次大流行中吸取的教训得到了应用。
The scientific community had rallied to meet that crisis
[AI] 科学界团结起来应对这场危机
in an unprecedented way.
[AI] 以前所未有的方式。
unleashing a burst of cooperation and creativity never seen before.
[AI] 释放出前所未有的合作和创造力。
And now they did it again.
[AI] 现在他们又这样做了。
Things that had once seemed impossible became the new normal.
[AI] 曾经看似不可能的事情变成了新常态。
and the heat waves of 2023 spurred an all-hands-on-deck mentality.
[AI] 2023年的热浪激发了一种全力以赴的心态。
in which almost every solution ever proposed to help solve the climate crisis
[AI] 几乎所有的解决方案都有助于解决气候危机
got accelerated to roll out and given a try.
[AI] 加速推出并进行了尝试。
The diversity of this effort makes any study of the 20s
[AI] 这种努力的多样性使得任何对20多岁的人的研究都成为可能
a very multidisciplinary affair -- which I like -- involving all of science.
[AI] 一个非常多学科的事件——我喜欢——涉及所有的科学。
technology. engineering and medicine.
[AI] 技术工程和医学。
STEM yes. our great tool kit.
[AI] 是的。我们伟大的工具包。
but also. crucially:
[AI] 而且。关键是：
governance. law. justice. diplomacy. philosophy and the arts.
[AI] 统治法律公平外交。哲学与艺术。
and most of all. finance.
[AI] 最重要的是。资金
Rapid changes in civilization software
[AI] 文明软件的快速变化
Rapid changes in civilization software
[AI] 文明软件的快速变化
were what allowed for the rapid changes in its hardware.
[AI] 是什么允许其硬件的快速变化。
Crucially. the people of that time had to arrange to pay themselves
[AI] 关键是。当时的人们不得不安排自己付钱
to do the things necessary to heal the biosphere.
[AI] 做必要的事情来治愈生物圈。
Money had to go to good work rather than bad.
[AI] 钱必须用在好的工作上，而不是坏的工作上。
This was the crux.
[AI] 这是关键。
With that change enacted.
[AI] 随着这一变化的实施。
there was all manner of good work ready to be performed.
[AI] 有各种各样的好工作要做。
It has to be understood that before the 20s.
[AI] 必须理解的是，在20年代之前。
capital always went to the highest rate of return.
[AI] 资本的回报率总是最高的。
That was the law of capital.
[AI] 这就是资本法则。
often literally the law.
[AI] 通常字面上是法律。
Restoring damage done to the biosphere.
[AI] 恢复对生物圈的破坏。
taking carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere --
[AI] 把二氧化碳带出大气层--
these did not yield the highest rate of return.
[AI] 这些并没有产生最高的回报率。
so money went elsewhere.
[AI] 所以钱就到别处去了。
and thus the catastrophe struck home.
[AI] 这场灾难就这样发生了。
Strange as it seems now. the funding of destruction might even have continued
[AI] 现在看来很奇怪。销毁资金甚至可能继续存在
were it not for a basic change in the global political economy.
[AI] 如果不是因为全球政治经济的根本变化。
a change oriented by science.
[AI] 以科学为导向的变革。
organized under the Paris Agreement
[AI] 根据《巴黎协定》组织
and then enacted by all the nations on earth.
[AI] 然后由地球上所有的国家颁布。
The mechanism for this transformation
[AI] 这种转变的机制是什么
was called the Network for Greening the Financial System.
[AI] 被称为绿色金融系统网络。
an organization of 89 of the world's central banks.
[AI] 由89家世界中央银行组成的组织。
Under the direction and encouragement of their governments.
[AI] 在其政府的指导和鼓励下。
these central banks shifted the world to what some now call the carbon standard.
[AI] 这些央行将世界转向了一些人现在所说的碳标准。
It also gets called "carbon quantitative easing" or "the carbon coin."
[AI] 它也被称为“碳量化宽松”或“碳硬币”
The idea was this:
[AI] 当时的想法是：
that new fiat money should be created precisely in proportion
[AI] 新的法定货币应该按比例创造
to the amount of carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere
[AI] 从大气中排出的二氧化碳量
and sequestered in plants. soil or the rocks under our feet.
[AI] 并被隔离在植物中。我们脚下的土壤或岩石。
And that new money was to be given to anyone
[AI] 而且新的钱会给任何人
who drew carbon back out of the air
[AI] 谁把碳从空气中抽出来的
or demonstrably and over the long term
[AI] 或者可以证明是长期的
refrained from burning it in the first place.
[AI] 从一开始就避免燃烧它。
This monetary and fiscal policy
[AI] 这是货币和财政政策
reoriented a huge proportion of human work to decarbonizing projects.
[AI] 将大部分人力工作重新定位于脱碳项目。
and there were a lot of them ready to go.
[AI] 他们中有很多人准备出发。
Regenerative agriculture was one giant area.
[AI] 再生农业是一个巨大的领域。
very important. as people still needed to eat while saving the world.
[AI] 非常重要。因为人们在拯救世界的同时仍然需要吃饭。
very important. as people still needed to eat while saving the world.
[AI] 非常重要。因为人们在拯救世界的同时仍然需要吃饭。
Reforestation. where appropriate. was also a rapid method of carbon drawdown.
[AI] 重新造林。在适当情况下。这也是一种快速降低碳含量的方法。
So was direct air capture.
[AI] 直接空中捕获也是如此。
which required an entirely new physical infrastructure.
[AI] 这需要一个全新的物理基础设施。
all paid for by carbon coins.
[AI] 都是用碳币支付的。
Some captured carbon got rendered into replacements for concrete and steel.
[AI] 一些被捕获的碳被用来替代混凝土和钢材。
and that. too. earned carbon coins.
[AI] 还有那个。也赚取碳币。
Habitat restoration also helped. usually.
[AI] 生境恢复也有帮助。通常
Once people were getting paid to take care of the earth's land and animals.
[AI] 曾经，人们为了照顾地球上的土地和动物而获得报酬。
carbon drawdown then joined the effort to stop the mass extinction event
[AI] 碳的减少随后加入了阻止大灭绝事件的努力
that we had been slipping into.
[AI] 那是我们一直在溜进的。
Of course. clean energy is fundamental to powering all of this good work.
[AI] 当然清洁能源是推动所有这些良好工作的基础。
and installing thousands of gigawatts of clean energy production
[AI] 以及安装数千千兆瓦的清洁能源生产
was a mammoth task.
[AI] 这是一项艰巨的任务。
Millions of people spent their careers
[AI] 数以百万计的人度过了他们的职业生涯
in this great infrastructural transformation.
[AI] 在这场伟大的基础设施转型中。
Indeed. there was so much work to be done in the 20s
[AI] 的确20年代有很多工作要做
that governments funding it were able to create full employment.
[AI] 政府的资助能够创造充分就业。
"Create full employment." which of course means an end to poverty.
[AI] “创造充分就业。”这当然意味着贫困的结束。
That there wouldn't be enough work for people.
[AI] 没有足够的工作给人们。
that there was a contradiction between people's health
[AI] 人们的健康和健康之间存在矛盾
and the biosphere's health --
[AI] 以及生物圈的健康--
these were confusions so ingrained in the era before the 20s.
[AI] 这些都是20年代以前根深蒂固的困惑。
they're now hard to understand.
[AI] 他们现在很难理解。
But hindsight is 20/20. if you'll excuse me saying so.
[AI] 但事后诸葛亮是20/20。请原谅我这么说。
And as for keeping fossil fuels in the ground.
[AI] 至于在地下保存化石燃料。
this. too. had to be compensated.
[AI] 这也必须得到补偿。
as many nations were literally banking on these resources.
[AI] 因为许多国家实际上都指望这些资源。
the burning of which would ironically have destroyed them.
[AI] 具有讽刺意味的是，如果把它们烧掉的话，它们就会被摧毁。
When petrostates like Venezuela. Saudi Arabia. Canada and Russia
[AI] 当委内瑞拉这样的石油国家。沙特阿拉伯。加拿大和俄罗斯
declared they were going to keep it in the ground.
[AI] 宣布他们要把它埋在地下。
they were paid in carbon coins.
[AI] 他们是用碳币支付的。
on a timetable matched to how quickly
[AI] 在时间表上匹配的速度有多快
on a timetable matched to how quickly
[AI] 在时间表上匹配的速度有多快
they would have extracted and sold these fuels.
[AI] 他们会提取并出售这些燃料。
At the level of cities.
[AI] 在城市层面。
infrastructure changes got paid for as they reduced carbon burn.
[AI] 基础设施的改变得到了回报，因为它们减少了碳燃烧。
Mass transit projects. electric car recharging stations.
[AI] 集体运输项目。电动汽车充电站。
infill construction. city agriculture. clean power generation --
[AI] 填充结构。城市农业。清洁发电--
all these actions earned carbon coins at the city level.
[AI] 所有这些行动都在城市层面上赢得了碳币。
And individuals could earn the coins as well.
[AI] 个人也可以赚取硬币。
by efforts such as no-till agriculture or green ranching.
[AI] 通过免耕农业或绿色牧场等措施。
peat bog creation. kelp farming
[AI] 泥炭沼泽的形成。海带养殖
and also swapping out dirty machines for clean ones.
[AI] 也可以把脏机器换成干净的。
All such decarbonizing efforts now made money rather than cost money.
[AI] 所有这些脱碳工作现在都是赚钱的，而不是花钱的。
Well. of course. there were many problems created by this shift in value.
[AI] 好当然价值观的转变带来了许多问题。
Certifying carbon drawdown became a huge industry in itself.
[AI] 证明碳排放量下降本身就是一个巨大的产业。
and anything that gets measured gets gamed.
[AI] 任何被测量的东西都会被玩弄。
So this was not a simple matter.
[AI] 所以这不是一件简单的事情。
But it got done.
[AI] 但是它完成了。
And then ...
[AI] 然后。。。
the heat waves of 2027 made it seem
[AI] 2027年的热浪让人觉得
as if all their good work had come too late.
[AI] 好像他们所有的好工作都来得太晚了。
the people could no longer stop a slide into catastrophe.
[AI] 人们再也无法阻止一场滑向灾难的灾难。
Things could have fallen apart that year.
[AI] 那一年事情可能会分崩离析。
and there was enough turmoil to make it seem like that was what was happening.
[AI] 当时有足够多的混乱，让人觉得这就是正在发生的事情。
The countries that cast dust into the atmosphere the next summer
[AI] 第二年夏天向大气中排放灰尘的国家
to deflect sunlight into space and cool things off for a while --
[AI] 将阳光反射到太空中，让物体冷却一段时间--
these countries were excoriated by many.
[AI] 这些国家受到许多人的谴责。
these countries were excoriated by many.
[AI] 这些国家受到许多人的谴责。
but thanked by many more.
[AI] 但感谢的还有更多。
The sense of emergency grew strong.
[AI] 紧急情况的感觉越来越强烈。
and political instability spread like wildfire.
[AI] 政治不稳定像野火一样蔓延。
The creation of a dozen new countries by way of divorces. velvet or otherwise.
[AI] 通过离婚建立了十几个新国家。天鹅绒或其他。
was hard to reconcile with the climate emergency work.
[AI] 很难与气候应急工作相协调。
And for some years. history seemed to fall into chaos.
[AI] 几年来。历史似乎陷入了混乱。
Often seems that way.
[AI] 通常看起来是这样的。
The global temperatures cooled for a few years after that.
[AI] 此后几年，全球气温持续降温。
and political temperatures cooled as well.
[AI] 政治温度也有所降温。
Indigenous people took an active role in managing the lands
[AI] 土著人民在管理土地方面发挥了积极作用
that they knew the best.
[AI] 他们知道的最好。
bringing back much-needed values of long-term care.
[AI] 带回急需的长期护理价值。
Women's empowerment continued to expand
[AI] 妇女赋权继续扩大
by way of the continuous and undeniable work of women.
[AI] 通过妇女持续和不可否认的工作。
And when the world's population then began to level off.
[AI] 当世界人口开始趋于稳定时。
And when the world's population then began to level off.
[AI] 当世界人口开始趋于稳定时。
pressures of all kinds were reduced accordingly.
[AI] 各种压力都相应地降低了。
The project also of leaving a big percentage of the earth's surface
[AI] 该项目还计划在地球表面留下很大一部分
to our cousin species
[AI] 给我们的近亲
to our cousin species
[AI] 给我们的近亲
gained momentum. with large reserves of wildland connected by habitat corridors
[AI] 势头增强。拥有大量由栖息地走廊连接的荒地
to make migrations possible again.
[AI] 使迁移再次成为可能。
And the mass extinction event that had looked inevitable
[AI] 以及看起来不可避免的大灭绝事件
began to shift into a global project of mutual care.
[AI] 开始转变为全球互助项目。
Although the sunlight deflection of 2028
[AI] 虽然2028年的阳光偏转
remains by far the most famous act of geofinessing.
[AI] 仍然是迄今为止最著名的地球精加工行为。
it's important to recall the effort in Antarctica and Greenland
[AI] 回顾一下在南极洲和格陵兰岛的努力是很重要的
to pump meltwater out from under the great glaciers
[AI] 从大冰川下抽出融水
that were then sliding faster and faster into the sea.
[AI] 然后它们越来越快地滑入大海。
Sea level rise could have been a catastrophe for everybody.
[AI] 海平面上升对每个人来说都可能是一场灾难。
not just near the coastlines. but everybody.
[AI] 不仅仅是在海岸线附近。但是每个人。
But removing that meltwater beneath the glaciers
[AI] 但是除去冰川下面的融水
caused their ice to bottom out on rock again.
[AI] 使他们的冰再次在岩石上触底。
slowed the ice back to its historical norms.
[AI] 使冰层恢复到历史常态。
Sea level rise is still a concern. of course.
[AI] 海平面上升仍然令人担忧。当然
but in this matter. as in so many.
[AI] 但在这件事上。就像很多人一样。
carbon drawdown is a huge help.
[AI] 碳排放下降是一个巨大的帮助。
It's the clear signal indicating that we have taken up our responsibility
[AI] 这是一个明确的信号，表明我们已经承担了责任
for keeping the biosphere in balance.
[AI] 为了保持生物圈的平衡。
that the parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere
[AI] 大气中二氧化碳的百万分之一
is now under our control
[AI] 现在在我们的控制之下
and a matter of international treaty negotiation.
[AI] 以及一个国际条约谈判的问题。
This is really the great accomplishment of our time.
[AI] 这真是我们这个时代的伟大成就。
It means we can put sea level. along with everything else.
[AI] 这意味着我们可以提高海平面。以及其他一切。
onto a shared path towards long-term stability.
[AI] 走向长期稳定的共同道路。
It's another way in which we can say we now live on the carbon standard.
[AI] 这是我们可以说我们现在生活在碳标准之上的另一种方式。
We take that for granted now.
[AI] 我们现在认为这是理所当然的。
But 60 years ago. it was a challenge no generation had had to beat.
[AI] 但是60年前。这是任何一代人都无法克服的挑战。
That they did it is something we should be grateful for.
[AI] 他们做到了这一点，我们应该心存感激。
and indeed. the more historians like me look at the 20s.
[AI] 的确如此。更多像我这样的历史学家关注20年代。
the more amazing they become.
[AI] 他们变得越神奇。
Those people really stepped up.
[AI] 那些人真的进步了。
Thank you.
[AI] 非常感谢。