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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
I'm really excited to share with you
非常高兴，能够与你们分享
some findings that really surprise me
一些使我感到十分惊讶的发现。
about what makes companies succeed the most,
这些发现是关于什么最能使公司成功
what factors actually matter the most for startup success.
以及对于创业公司，什么因素最要紧。
I believe that the startup organization
我相信，创业组织是
is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.
使世界成为更好的地方的最伟大的形式之一。
If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives
如果你能用合适的股权激励来召集一帮人
and organize them in a startup,
并且把他们组织起来创业的话
you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.
你就能以前所未有的方式释放了人类潜能。
You get them to achieve unbelievable things.
并引领他们去完成不可置信的事情。
But if the startup organization is so great,
但是，如果创业组织那么伟大，
why do so many fail?
为什么还会有很多失败呢？
That's what I wanted to find out.
这就是我想要探究的问题。
I wanted to find out what actually matters most for startup success.
我想要了解，对创业公司的成功来说，到底什么最为重要。
And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,
我也想要对此问题系统化的分析，
avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have
避免一些因为我这些年看到许多公司
from so many companies I've seen over the years.
而得来的直觉上的误解。
I wanted to know this
我想要知道这个，
because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old
因为，我从12岁上初中，在汽车站售卖糖果时，
when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,
便开始我自己的商业活动。
to high school, when I made solar energy devices,
在高中时，我做太阳能设备的生意，
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
在大学时，我做扩音器生意。
And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.
当我从大学毕业的时候，我成立了一家软件公司。
And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,
20年前，我成立了创意实验室，
and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,
在过去的20年里，我们成立超过100家公司。
many successes, and many big failures.
其中，很多成功了，也有很多失败了。
We learned a lot from those failures.
我们从那些失败中学到了很多。
So I tried to look across what factors
所以，我尝试去探索
accounted the most for company success and failure.
是什么因素导致公司的成败。
So I looked at these five.
所以我关注在这5点。
First, the idea.
第一，创意。
I used to think that the idea was everything.
我过去认为，创意就是全部。
I named my company Idealab for how much I worship
我将我的公司命名为创意实验室，
the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.
是因为，我十分推崇，当你首次想到某个想法的时候，“aha”（啊哈）开窍的时刻。
But then over time,
但是，随着时间的推移，
I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,
我认为或许团队、执行力或者是适应力，
that mattered even more than the idea.
比创意更要紧。
I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
我从没想过，我会在TED的舞台上，引用拳王泰森的话，
but he once said,
但是，他曾经说过，
"Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)
“每个人都有计划，直到被人打脸为止。”（笑声）
And I think that's so true about business as well.
我认为，对于生意也是这样的。
So much about a team's execution
对于一个团队的执行力为说，最要紧的，
is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.
是它使自己能适应被客户打脸的能力。
The customer is the true reality.
客户就是真理。
And that's why I came to think
这就是为什么我认为
that the team maybe was the most important thing.
团队是最重要的事情。
Then I started looking at the business model.
然后，我开始关注商业模式。
Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?
就是这个公司是否有一条清晰的能产生客户收益的路线图吗？
That started rising to the top in my thinking
商业模式开始成为我对什么对成功最重要
about maybe what mattered most for success.
这一思考的重点。
Then I looked at the funding.
然后，我关注了资金。
Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.
有时候一些公司会去吸纳大量的资金，
Maybe that's the most important thing?
也许这是最重要的事情？
And then of course, the timing.
当然还有时机。
Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?
这个想法是不是太早了，我们还没有做好迎接它的准备？
Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?
它是不是太超前了以至于你不得不来教导世界？
Is it just right?
它恰在时机吗？
Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?
或者它是不是太晚，已经有太多的公司竞争？
So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors across many companies.
所以我努力去认真考察这五个因素在公司中的影响。
And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,
我考察了100家创意实验室下的公司，
and 100 non-Idealab companies
还有100家非创意实验室下的公司，
to try and come up with something scientific about it.
试图提出一些科学的东西。
So first, on these Idealab companies,
首先，在这些创意实验公司里，
the top five companies --
排在前面的五家公司
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --
Citysearch ,CarsDirct, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com
those all became billion-dollar successes.
最后都成为了十亿美元以上的成功公司
And the five companies on the bottom --
而下面的五家公司
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,Desktop Factory, Peoplelink
we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.
我们曾寄以重望，但没有成功。
So I tried to rank across all of those attributes
所以我试图就这些公司在每个因素中的得分，
how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.
给它们排序。
And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,
然后对于非创意实验公司，我关注极度的成功者，
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.
像Airbnb，Instagram, Uber ,YouTube ,Linkedln
And some failures:
还有一些失败的案例
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
Webvan,Kozmo,Pets.com
Flooz and Friendster.
Flooz 和 Friendster
The bottom companies had intense funding,
垫底的公司都有雄厚的资金
they even had business models in some cases,
一些案例甚至有商业模式在里面
but they didn't succeed.
但是，他们并没有成功。
I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most
我尝试考察在这些成功和失败的案例中
for success and failure across all of these companies,
到底什么因素真的最重要
and the results really surprised me.
结果让我大吃一惊
The number one thing was timing.
最重要的是时机
Timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure.
在解释成功和失败的差异中时机占42%
Team and execution came in second,
团队和执行力排在次位
and the idea,
然后是创意
the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,
创意的差异，或者说创意的独特性
that actually came in third.
实际上排在第三位
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
它不是决定性的
it's not to say that the idea isn't important,
不是说创意不重要
but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.
但创意不是最重要的，这还是让我惊讶
Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.
有时候更重要的是它是否恰对时机
The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.
最末尾的两项，商业模式和资金，实际上对我意义深远
I think business model makes sense to be that low
我认为商业模式之所以不那么重要
because you can start out without a business model
是因为没有商业模式，你也可以创业
and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.
要是你的客户正需要你的创新时，更是如此
And funding, I think as well,
至于资金，我认为也一样
if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,
如果你一开始资金不足然而却可以不断发展
especially in today's age,
实际上今天的时代
it's very, very easy to get intense funding.
要想得到大量的资金真的非常非常的容易
So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.
那现在让我针对每个方面举一些具体的事例
So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.
就以家耳熟能详的Airbnb为例吧
Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors
这家公司一开始曾被很多投资者pass掉了
because people thought,
因为大家觉得
"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."
“没人会腾出家里的一块地方出租给陌生人”
Of course, people proved that wrong.
当然，后来证明大家是错的
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
但是它成功的一个原因
aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,
除了好的商业模式，好创意，强大的执行力之外
is the timing.
就是时机
That company came out right during the height of the recession
就在经济危机的最高潮时，该公司出现了
when people really needed extra money,
这时人们真的很需要挣点外快
and that maybe helped people overcome
这或许帮助人们克服了要把自己的
their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.
房间出租给一个陌生人的障碍
Same thing with Uber.
对于Uber，情况相同
Uber came out,
Uber的诞生
incredible company, incredible business model, great execution, too.
难以置信的公司，难以置信的商业模式也有强大的执行力
But the timing was so perfect
但当它们需要拉司机进入到这个体系时
for their need to get drivers into the system.
时机恰好是那么完美
Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.
司机们正需要挣外快，这点至关重要
Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.
我们早期的一些成功范例，像Citysearch城市搜索，就在大家需要网页的时候诞生了
GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,
GoTo.com，这个我们早在1998年就在Ted上说过
was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.
是在公司寻找划算的获得流量的方法时诞生的
We thought the idea was so great,
我们曾经认为创意是那么重要
but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.
然而实际上，时机或许更重要些
And then some of our failures.
然后是一些失败的例子
We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.
我们曾创立过一个叫Z.com的线上娱乐公司
We were so excited about it --
我们对此满怀期待
we raised enough money, we had a great business model,
我们筹集了大量的资金，我们有一个很棒的商业模式
we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.
甚至我们还将伟大的好莱坞天才们签进公司
But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.
但1999到2000年的宽带普及程度实在太低
It was too hard to watch video content online,
要想在网上看视频太困难了
you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,
你不得不向浏览器加入多媒体数字信号编解码器，要加入所有编解码器，
and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.
最后这家公司最终在2003年退出了市场
Just two years later,
仅仅在两年之后
when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash
当Adobe flash解决了编解码问题
and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,
并且全美的宽带普及度达到50%后
YouTube was perfectly timed.
YouTube正中时机
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
好的创意，不可思议的时机
In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.
事实上，YouTube一开始都没有一个商业模式
It wasn't even certain that that would work out.
也不确定它是否会成功
But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.
但它是如此漂亮地正中时机
So what I would say, in summary,
所以总结来说，我要说的就是
is execution definitely matters a lot.
执行力真的很重要
The idea matters a lot.
创意很重要
But timing might matter even more.
但是，时机更重要
And the best way to really assess timing
而真正要去评估时机的最佳方法
is to really look at whether consumers are really ready
就是真的去考察消费者是否真的做好准备
for what you have to offer them.
为你所提供的服务做好准备
And to be really, really honest about it,
对此，一定要实事求是
not be in denial about any results that you see,
不要否认你所看到的任何结果
because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,
因为如果你有喜爱的东西，你会想推动它
but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.
但你不得不对时机这个因素非常非常的诚实
As I said earlier,
正如我之前所说
I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.
我认为创业公司可以改变世界，让世界更加美好
I hope some of these insights
我希望这些见解
can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,
可以帮助你们提高一点点成功的几率
and thus make something great come to the world
这样就可以给世界带来一点
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
本不会发生的好的改变
Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.
十分感谢，你已经是一名伟大的听众。
(Applause)
（鼓掌）