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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
Hello. how is everyone feeling?
[AI] 你好大家感觉怎么样？
(Cheers)
[AI] （干杯）
Are you ready to solve climate change?
[AI] 你准备好解决气候变化了吗？
(Cheers)
[AI] （干杯）
Good.
[AI] 好的
Do you know what a pettawat hour is?
[AI] 你知道佩塔瓦小时是什么吗？
Yeah. it's a unit of energy like kilowatt hour or megawatt hour.
[AI] 是 啊它是一种能量单位，比如千瓦时或兆瓦时。
I've been a climate activist since age 11
[AI] 我从11岁起就是一名气候活动家
and I studied engineering.
[AI] 我学的是工程学。
and so I was familiar with those terms.
[AI] 所以我熟悉这些术语。
Kilowatt. megawatt. even gigawatt and terawatt.
[AI] 千瓦兆瓦。甚至千兆瓦和太瓦。
But I had never heard of a petawatt hour
[AI] 但我从来没有听说过一个千兆瓦时
until I wrote a book on climate change solutions.
[AI] 直到我写了一本关于气候变化解决方案的书。
That's because it's so big.
[AI] 那是因为它太大了。
But that's the scale I want to talk about.
[AI] 但这就是我想说的规模。
A petawatt hour is a trillion kilowatt hours.
[AI] 一瓦时等于一万亿千瓦时。
And today the world generates about 25 trillion kilowatt hours
[AI] 今天，世界发电量约为25万亿千瓦时
of electricity each year.
[AI] 每年的用电量。
Most of that is from fossil-fuel power plants.
[AI] 其中大部分来自化石燃料发电厂。
and the dominant mindset is that we have to change
[AI] 主导的心态是我们必须改变
the current electricity system
[AI] 当前的电力系统
by replacing those fossil-fuel plants
[AI] 通过替换那些化石燃料工厂
with clean generation by 2050.
[AI] 到2050年实现清洁发电。
Well. over one third of our electricity generation is already clean.
[AI] 好我们三分之一以上的发电量已经是清洁的。
mostly from hydro and nuclear.
[AI] 主要来自水电和核能。
along with wind and solar.
[AI] 还有风能和太阳能。
and clean generation is growing.
[AI] 清洁一代正在成长。
and clean generation is growing.
[AI] 清洁一代正在成长。
Projections based on current policies around the world show
[AI] 根据世界各地现行政策进行的预测显示
that we are on track to have about 25 petawatt hours
[AI] 我们将有大约25千兆瓦特小时
of clean electricity generation in 2050.
[AI] 2050年清洁发电的发展。
That's two and a half times today's amount of clean generation
[AI] 这是今天清洁发电量的两倍半
and equal to today's total generation.
[AI] 相当于今天的整整一代人。
So this is great.
[AI] 所以这很好。
We can replace all our fossil fuel plants.
[AI] 我们可以替换我们所有的化石燃料工厂。
have a clean version of today's world.
[AI] 有一个干净版本的当今世界。
walk away. we've solved climate change.
[AI] 走开。我们已经解决了气候变化问题。
Thank you very much.
[AI] 非常感谢你。
Oh. but I did forget one tiny little detail.
[AI] 哦但我确实忘记了一个小细节。
We actually need five times that much.
[AI] 实际上，我们需要五倍于这个数字。
To be clear. we need and we're on track to have
[AI] 说清楚。我们需要，而且我们正在按计划进行
two and a half times today's amount of clean generation
[AI] 是今天清洁发电量的两倍半
to switch to a clean version of our current electricity system.
[AI] 切换到我们当前电力系统的清洁版本。
to switch to a clean version of our current electricity system.
[AI] 切换到我们当前电力系统的清洁版本。
But changing the current system isn't enough.
[AI] 但仅仅改变目前的制度是不够的。
We need five times that.
[AI] 我们需要五倍。
all of it clean.
[AI] 一切都很干净。
or 12 times today's clean electricity production.
[AI] 或者是今天清洁电力生产的12倍。
to actually avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
[AI] 真正避免气候变化的最坏影响。
Can I repeat that?
[AI] 我能重复一遍吗？
To avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
[AI] 避免气候变化的最坏影响。
we have to multiply today's clean electricity production by 12 times.
[AI] 我们必须将今天的清洁电力生产增加12倍。
There are four main reasons we need that much.
[AI] 有四个主要原因，我们需要这么多。
First. let’s keep in mind scientists’ goalpost for addressing climate change:
[AI] 第一让我们牢记科学家应对气候变化的目标：
achieving net-negative emissions globally by around 2050.
[AI] 到2050年左右实现全球净负排放。
Most of us know that to do so.
[AI] 我们大多数人都知道这一点。
we'll have to electrify a whole range of vehicles.
[AI] 我们必须给所有的车辆通电。
heating systems and some industrial processes.
[AI] 加热系统和一些工业过程。
Electric equipment is more efficient than fuel-based equipment.
[AI] 电气设备比燃油设备效率更高。
So electrification actually lowers total global energy demand.
[AI] 因此，电气化实际上降低了全球能源总需求。
but it increases electricity generation needed.
[AI] 但它增加了所需的发电量。
In our current energy world.
[AI] 在我们当前的能源世界里。
electrifying 60 percent. which is ambitious.
[AI] 充电60%。这是雄心勃勃的。
would add enough demand
[AI] 会增加足够的需求
that we would need roughly 40 petawatt hours
[AI] 我们需要大约40千兆瓦时
of total electricity generation by 2050.
[AI] 到2050年占总发电量的40%。
Second. it's not OK to simply replace today's world with a clean version.
[AI] 第二简单地用一个干净的版本来取代今天的世界是不好的。
In today's world.
[AI] 在当今世界。
over 700 million people don't have access to electricity.
[AI] 超过7亿人无法用上电。
over 700 million people don't have access to electricity.
[AI] 超过7亿人无法用上电。
Billions more have access only to small amounts
[AI] 还有几十亿人只能获得少量资金
or to unreliable supply that often cuts out.
[AI] 或者是经常中断的不可靠供应。
Energy demand in rich industrialized countries will grow more slowly
[AI] 富裕工业化国家的能源需求增长将更加缓慢
over the next few decades with increased efficiency.
[AI] 在接下来的几十年中，我们将提高效率。
But energy demand in developing countries will continue to grow dramatically.
[AI] 但发展中国家的能源需求将继续急剧增长。
especially if we can make electricity cheaper.
[AI] 尤其是如果我们能让电力更便宜。
This is good.
[AI] 这很好。
Energy access is lifting people out of poverty.
[AI] 获得能源正在使人们摆脱贫困。
driving access to education.
[AI] 推动教育普及。
commerce. health care and lower birth rates.
[AI] 商业医疗保健和降低出生率。
Both for moral and practical reasons.
[AI] 出于道德和实际原因。
those of us in richer countries need to realize that addressing climate change
[AI] 我们这些富裕国家的人需要认识到应对气候变化
will necessarily center
[AI] 将必然成为中心
on a massive expansion of energy access in developing countries.
[AI] 在发展中国家大规模扩大能源供应。
So electricity generation will have to grow even more
[AI] 因此，发电量将不得不进一步增长
and get cheaper
[AI] 而且更便宜
to accommodate global economic development.
[AI] 适应全球经济发展。
Based on projections of global development by 2050.
[AI] 根据2050年全球发展预测。
generation needed rises to 60 petawatt hours per year.
[AI] 所需发电量增至每年60千兆瓦时。
The third reason is a bit more debatable.
[AI] 第三个原因更有争议。
but it needs to be talked about more in public discourse.
[AI] 但它需要在公共讨论中得到更多的讨论。
It has to do with the fact
[AI] 这与事实有关
that not everything can be electrified by 2050.
[AI] 到2050年，并不是所有的东西都能通电。
Long-range airplanes. for instance.
[AI] 远程飞机。例如。
are still going to need the energy density of a liquid fuel.
[AI] 我们仍然需要液体燃料的能量密度。
are still going to need the energy density of a liquid fuel.
[AI] 我们仍然需要液体燃料的能量密度。
Similar for some industrial processes.
[AI] 一些工业过程也是如此。
Now. many models waive this issue away with two overoptimistic assumptions:
[AI] 现在许多模型通过两个过于乐观的假设放弃了这一问题：
that all those factories continue burning fossil fuels but use carbon capture.
[AI] 所有这些工厂继续燃烧化石燃料，但使用碳捕获。
which costs extra and will only happen where governments mandate it.
[AI] 这需要额外的成本，而且只有在政府授权的情况下才会发生。
and that all those long-range vehicles use sustainable biofuel.
[AI] 所有这些远程车辆都使用可持续生物燃料。
which is only sustainable if every supplying country.
[AI] 这只有在每个供应国都参与的情况下才是可持续的。
and its local governments.
[AI] 以及当地政府。
fully enforces strict standards for biomass
[AI] 全面执行严格的生物质标准
to avoid deforestation and other impacts
[AI] 避免砍伐森林和其他影响
that could increase emissions from agriculture.
[AI] 这可能会增加农业的排放。
Some amount of carbon capture at factories and sustainable bioenergy
[AI] 工厂碳捕获量和可持续生物能源
will absolutely be part of the picture.
[AI] 绝对是画面的一部分。
But I’ve been in politics.
[AI] 但我从政过。
and I am sure that we should plan for imperfect policy.
[AI] 我相信我们应该为不完善的政策制定计划。
And that means we need to plan
[AI] 这意味着我们需要计划
for building even more electricity generation.
[AI] 建造更多的发电设施。
We can use this additional generation to synthesize fuels
[AI] 我们可以利用这一新一代来合成燃料
that are truly carbon neutral or entirely carbon free:
[AI] 这是真正的碳中和的或完全无碳的：
hydrogen. ammonia. synthetic jet fuel and others.
[AI] 氢氨合成喷气燃料和其他。
This is a much rougher estimate.
[AI] 这是一个更粗略的估计。
but to be confident of minimizing climate change impacts.
[AI] 但要有信心最大限度地减少气候变化的影响。
we should aim to push our line up to around 90 petawatt hours per year.
[AI] 我们的目标应该是将我们的生产线提高到每年90千兆瓦时左右。
Finally. the fourth reason is that we need not only net-zero
[AI] 最后第四个原因是，我们不仅需要净零
but net-negative emissions in 2050.
[AI] 但2050年的净负排放量。
There will be some non-energy emissions that remain. especially from agriculture.
[AI] 还将有一些非能源排放。尤其是农业。
And we'll have to pull CO2 from the atmosphere
[AI] 我们必须从大气中提取二氧化碳
to make up for those.
[AI] 为了弥补这些。
to make up for those.
[AI] 为了弥补这些。
But we also need to use all our possible carbon-removal methods
[AI] 但我们也需要使用所有可能的除碳方法
at their maximum capacity
[AI] 以最大容量
to remove more CO2 each year.
[AI] 每年清除更多的二氧化碳。
getting as far as possible into net-negative emissions.
[AI] 尽可能减少净负排放量。
getting as far as possible into net-negative emissions.
[AI] 尽可能减少净负排放量。
drawing down levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
[AI] 降低大气中的温室气体水平
to eventually restore a stable climate.
[AI] 最终恢复稳定的气候。
One of the carbon-removal methods we’ll have to use is direct air-capture:
[AI] 我们必须使用的碳去除方法之一是直接空气捕捉：
arrays of fans filtering CO2 from the air.
[AI] 从空气中过滤二氧化碳的风扇阵列。
And doing enough of this to restore safe temperatures within decades.
[AI] 并在几十年内恢复足够的安全温度。
not centuries.
[AI] 不是几个世纪。
will require yet more electricity generation.
[AI] 将需要更多的发电。
will require yet more electricity generation.
[AI] 将需要更多的发电。
Again. the exact amount depends on quite how ambitious we're able to be.
[AI] 再一次确切的数量取决于我们的雄心壮志。
But for a comfortable rate of carbon removal.
[AI] 但是碳的去除速度要快得多。
we would need perhaps 120 petawatt hours per year total.
[AI] 我们每年总共需要120千兆瓦时。
So roughly five times today's total global electricity system.
[AI] 因此，大约是当今全球电力系统总量的五倍。
12 times today's clean electricity production.
[AI] 是今天清洁电力生产的12倍。
and that can actually achieve net-negative emissions globally.
[AI] 这实际上可以实现全球净负排放。
And there's a bonus reason to consider.
[AI] 还有一个值得考虑的理由。
Because clean electricity is going to power so much
[AI] 因为清洁电力将提供如此多的电力
of the rest of the transition: electrification. global development.
[AI] 过渡的其余部分：电气化。全球发展。
synthesized fuels and sequestration.
[AI] 合成燃料和封存。
to achieve net-negative emissions by 2050.
[AI] 到2050年实现净负排放。
we should really build as much as possible
[AI] 我们真的应该尽可能多地建设
of that new electricity generation
[AI] 新的发电量
at the beginning of the transition. starting now.
[AI] 在过渡开始时。从现在开始。
This will make sure that clean electricity is abundant
[AI] 这将确保清洁电力充足
and cheap soon enough
[AI] 而且很快就便宜了
to still leave time for all of the other transitions that rely on it
[AI] 为依赖它的所有其他转换留出时间
to fully roll out by 2050.
[AI] 到2050年全面推广。
And when we talk about abundant and cheap electricity.
[AI] 当我们谈论丰富而廉价的电力时。
we're talking about eliminating poverty faster.
[AI] 我们正在谈论更快地消除贫困。
powering access to water desalination.
[AI] 为海水淡化提供动力。
strengthening medical supply chains.
[AI] 加强医疗供应链。
so much more.
[AI] 更多。
Decarbonizing and scaling electricity generation
[AI] 脱碳和规模化发电
will also be the biggest global development project ever.
[AI] 这也是有史以来最大的全球发展项目。
So if we want to avoid the worst of climate change.
[AI] 因此，如果我们想避免最糟糕的气候变化。
we need to discard that dominant mindset
[AI] 我们需要抛弃这种占主导地位的心态
about merely replacing fossil fuel generation.
[AI] 关于仅仅取代化石燃料发电。
My point is. that misses the scale.
[AI] 我的观点是。这没有达到标准。
Our project is not changing the current global electricity system.
[AI] 我们的项目不会改变当前的全球电力系统。
Our project is building a new global electricity system.
[AI] 我们的项目是建立一个新的全球电力系统。
Political action that tinkers around within the current system
[AI] 在当前体制内进行修补的政治行动
will never get us where we need to be by 2050.
[AI] 到2050年，我们将永远无法达到应有的水平。
Arguments over which sources of clean electricity we should use are unhelpful.
[AI] 关于我们应该使用哪种清洁电源的争论是无益的。
We need all of them:
[AI] 我们需要所有这些：
hydro. solar. wind. nuclear. advanced nuclear.
[AI] 水电。太阳的风原子能的先进核技术。
advanced geothermal.
[AI] 高级地热。
mandates for carbon capture on remaining fossil plants.
[AI] 对剩余化石植物进行碳捕获的授权。
If you look at the potential rates of addition for each of these.
[AI] 如果你看一下每一个的潜在添加速率。
you'll see we need everything as much as possible
[AI] 你会发现我们需要尽可能多的东西
and we may still fall short.
[AI] 而我们可能仍有不足之处。
It's not changing the electricity system.
[AI] 它不会改变电力系统。
It's building a new electricity system.
[AI] 它正在建造一个新的电力系统。
One five times bigger than today's total system
[AI] 比今天的整个系统大五倍
and 100 percent clean.
[AI] 100%干净。
As fellow youth activists often say.
[AI] 正如其他青年活动家经常说的那样。
the project is much more comparable
[AI] 该项目更具可比性
to the World War II-era manufacturing boom
[AI] 第二次世界大战时期的制造业繁荣
than anything the world has done since.
[AI] 这是自那以后世界所做的一切。
Building new things that we've barely ever built before.
[AI] 建造我们几乎从未建造过的新东西。
in massive amounts. to create a new system entirely.
[AI] 大量地。创建一个全新的系统。
In fact. this mindset goes beyond electricity-generation itself.
[AI] 事实上这种心态超越了发电本身。
Many people are wary of ambitious climate action
[AI] 许多人对雄心勃勃的气候行动持谨慎态度
because they see the project as changing the familiar current world.
[AI] 因为他们认为这个项目改变了人们熟悉的当今世界。
That's not it.
[AI] 不是这样。
Addressing climate change means building a new world.
[AI] 应对气候变化意味着建设一个新世界。
A world in which energy is healthier.
[AI] 能源更健康的世界。
doesn't pollute the air we breathe
[AI] 不会污染我们呼吸的空气
and where it's cheaper and everyone globally has access to it.
[AI] 而且在那里它更便宜，全球每个人都可以使用它。
A world with higher incomes.
[AI] 一个收入更高的世界。
longer and better lives.
[AI] 更长更好的生活。
greater equality.
[AI] 更大的平等。
A better world.
[AI] 一个更美好的世界。
Thank you. and let's make it happen.
[AI] 非常感谢。让我们实现它。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）