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【TED】从宏观的角度解决非洲金融问题

 

Traditional prescriptions for growth in Africa are not working very well. 传统的经济增长手段在非洲并非那么管用。 After one trillion dollars in African development-related aid in the last 60 years, 尽管在过去的60年里,非洲获得了过万亿美元的经济援助, real per capita income today is lower than it was in the 1970s. 如今实际的人均收入比上世纪70年代还要低。 Aid is not doing too well. 援助并没有太大的帮助。 In response, 对此, the Bretton Woods institutions -- the IMF and the World Bank -- 布雷顿森林体系-国际货币基金组织和世界银行 pushed for free trade not aid, 推崇自由贸易,而不是经济援助, yet the historical record shows little empirical evidence 然而历史数据表明, that free trade leads to economic growth. 没有实质证据证明自由贸易会促进非洲的经济增长。 The newly prescribed silver bullet is microcredit. 最新的经济增长手段是"小额贷款”。 We seem to be fixated on this romanticized idea 我们的想法似乎过分浪漫, that every poor peasant in Africa is an entrepreneur. 以为所有非洲贫农都是创业家。 (Laughter) (笑声) Yet my work and travel in 40-plus countries across Africa 然而,在非洲40多个国家的工作和旅途的经验告诉我, have taught me that most people want jobs instead. 大多数人民想要的只是就业。 My solution: Forget micro-entrepreneurs. 我(对促进经济增长)的方案是:且将小额贷款放一边。 Let's invest in building pan-African titans 让我们投资构建泛非洲的“巨无霸” (大型企业) like Sudanese businessman Mo Ibrahim. 如苏丹的企业家——易卜拉欣(Mo Ibrahim) Mo took a contrarian bet on Africa when he founded Celtel International in '98 1998年,易卜拉欣在非洲逆势而为,成立了Celtel国际公司, and built it into a mobile cellular provider 并将其打造成移动运营商。 with 24 million subscribers across 14 African countries by 2004. 2004年,Celtel 已有2400万用户,服务覆盖非洲14个国家。 The Mo model might be better than the everyman entrepreneur model, 相比于“人人都是创业家” 的模式,易卜拉欣的创业模式也许较优。 which prevents an effective means of diffusion and knowledge-sharing. 因为大众创业模式阻碍了有效的融合手段和知识共享。 Perhaps we are not at a stage in Africa 或许,在非洲目前所处阶段, where many actors and small enterprises leads to growth through competition. 经济增长不是靠大量个体和小型企业竞争而取得。 Consider these two alternative scenarios. 考虑以下两个不同的情景: One: You loan 200 dollars to each of 500 banana farmers 情景一:你给种植香蕉的500个农民每人贷200美元, allowing them to dry their surplus bananas 让他们可以干燥处理剩余的香蕉, and fetch 15 percent more revenue at the local market. 在当地市场获得15%的收入增长。 Or two: You give 100,000 dollars to one savvy entrepreneur 情景二:你把10万美元给一个精明的企业家, and help her set up a factory that yields 40 percent additional income 帮助她建造一个工厂,足以给那500个种植香蕉的农民, to all 500 banana farmers and creates 50 additional jobs. 带来额外40%的收入,同时又创造了50个就业岗位。 We invested in the second scenario, 我们选择了后者, and backed 26-year-old Kenyan entrepreneur Eric Muthomi 向一位26岁的肯尼亚企业家,Eric Muthomi 给予了投资, to set up an agro-processing factory called Stawi 帮助他设立Stawi农产品加工厂。 to produce gluten-free banana-based flour and baby food. 该加工厂专门生产无麸质的以香蕉为主的面粉和婴儿食品。 Stawi is leveraging economies of scale Stawi借助规模经济效应采用现代加工生产模式, and using modern manufacturing processes to create value for not only its owners 不仅为工厂老板创造了价值, but its workers, who have an ownership in the business. 还为持有股份的员工创造了价值。 Our dream is to take an Eric Muthomi and try to help him become a Mo Ibrahim, 我们的梦想是帮助 Eric Muthomi,让他成为又一位 “易卜拉欣 “。 which requires skill, financing, local and global partnerships, 这一梦想的实现,需要技术、资金、地区与全球范围的合作、 and extraordinary perseverance. 以及非凡的毅力。 But why pan-African? 但是,为什么选择泛非洲? The scramble for Africa during the Berlin Conference of 1884 -- 1884年的柏林会议上对非洲的争夺, where, quite frankly, we Africans were not exactly consulted -- ——实话说,我们非洲人民的意见就没有被征询过—— (Laughter) (Applause) -- (笑声)(掌声) resulted in massive fragmentation 这导致了非洲大规模的“碎片化”, and many sovereign states with small populations: 产生了许多人口较少的主权国家: Liberia, four million; Cape Verde, 500,000. 利比里亚,400万人口;佛得角,50万人口。 Pan-Africa gives you one billion people, 泛非洲有10亿人口, granted across 55 countries with trade barriers and other impediments, 横跨了55个国家,还有各种贸易壁垒和其它障碍。 but our ancestors traded across the continent 不过,在欧洲列强争夺非洲、划下国界前, before Europeans drew lines around us. 我们的祖先在非洲大陆到处进行贸易。 The pan-African opportunities outweigh the challenges, 泛非洲的机遇大于挑战, and that's why we're expanding Stawi's markets from just Kenya 因此,我们从肯尼亚开始将 Stawi的市场扩张到阿尔及利亚、 to Algeria, Nigeria, Ghana, and anywhere else that will buy our food. 尼日利亚、加纳,还有所有会购买我们的食物的地方。 We hope to help solve food security, empower farmers, create jobs, 我们希望帮助解决食品安全问题,改善农民生活,创造就业机会, develop the local economy, and we hope to become rich in the process. 发展当地经济,并在此历程中致富。 While it's not the sexiest approach, 也许这不是最鲜嫩欲滴的手段, and maybe it doesn't achieve the same feel-good 跟在 kiva.org 上借出100美元给别人买山羊相比, as giving a woman 100 dollars to buy a goat on kiva.org, 这可能不会给你同样的感觉。 perhaps supporting fewer, higher-impact entrepreneurs 向少数更具影响力的企业家提供帮助, to build massive businesses that scale pan-Africa 构建大规模的企业使其能够与泛非洲匹配, can help change this. 或许能够帮助我们改变现状。 The political freedom for which our forebearers fought 我们先人为政治自由所作的拼搏 is meaningless without economic freedom. 如果没有经济自由,就会变得徒劳。 We hope to aid this fight for economic freedom 我们希望为争取经济自由出力, by building world-class businesses, 致力于打造世界级的企业, creating indigenous wealth, 创造本土财富, providing jobs that we so desperately need, 创造我们迫切需要的就业岗位。 and hopefully helping achieve this. 与此同时也希望通过实现这些目标, Africa shall rise. 非洲会崛起。 Thank you. 谢谢! (Applause) (掌声) Tom Rielly: So Sangu, of course, this is strong rhetoric. 汤姆·赖利:桑谷,这是很强的比喻。 You're making 100 percent contrast between microcredit 你说小额贷款与普通的投资手段以及 and regular investment and growing regular investment. 不断增长的普通投资手段有天壤之别。 Do you think there is a role for microcredit at all? 你认为小额贷款能否占一席之地? Sangu Delle: I think there is a role. 桑谷·德尔:我认为可以。 Microcredit has been a great, innovative way 小额贷款一直是优秀创新的手段, to expand financial access to the bottom of the pyramid. 用于为向金字塔底层的人扩大金融活动的门槛。 But for the problems we face in Africa, 然而,我们非洲目前所面临的问题, when we are looking at the Marshall Plan to revitalize war-torn Europe, 比如说,为振兴饱受战争蹂躏的欧洲而制定的马歇尔计划, it was not full of donations of sheep. 不只是单纯的捐赠羊群。 We need more than just microcredit. 我们需要的不仅仅是小额贷款, We need more than just give 200 dollars. 也不是仅仅200美元的援助, We need to build big businesses, and we need jobs. 我们需要构建大规模的企业,需要更多的就业岗位。 TR: Very good. Thank you so much. 赖利:非常好,感谢! (Applause) (掌声)

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