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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
Imagine that you are a product designer.
把自己想象成一个产品设计师。
And you've designed a product,
你设计了一种产品
a new type of product, called the human immune system.
一种叫做人体免疫机制的新产品
You're pitching this product
你在向一个持质疑态度
to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager.
不容许讲废话的经理推销这种产品
Let's call him Bob.
让我们叫他鲍勃
I think we all know at least one Bob, right?
我想每个人都至少认识一个鲍勃，对吧
How would that go?
将会发生什么呢
Bob, I've got this incredible idea
鲍勃，我有了一个美妙的想法
for a completely new type of personal health product.
我要做一种全新的个人健康产品
It's called the human immune system.
它叫做人体免疫机制
I can see from your face that you're having some problems with this.
我能从你的反应看出你不太相信
Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.
不要担心，我知道这不好理解
I don't want to take you through the gory details,
我不会赘述令人肉麻的细节
I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product.
我只想告诉你这种产品的几个惊人之处
First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
首先，它巧妙地使用了庞大性
by having millions of copies of each component --
它拥有上百万备用的同种组织
leukocytes, white blood cells --
——比如血白细胞——
before they're actually needed, to create a massive buffer against the unexpected.
来制造应对突发情况的有效方案
And it cleverly leverages diversity
其次它有着多样性
by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells,
不只是有白血细胞，还有B细胞、T细胞、
natural killer cells, antibodies.
自然杀伤细胞和抗体
The components don't really matter.
重要的不是它的组成部分
The point is that together,
重要的是合在一起
this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything
这种有着不同种类的多样性
that evolution has been able to throw up.
几乎可以解决进化中出现的所有问题
And the design is completely modular.
而且它的设计十分模块化
You have the surface barrier of the human skin,
有着人体皮肤的表面保护
you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system
不仅有与生俱来的反应敏捷的免疫机制
and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system.
还有着适应力极强的高效免疫系统
The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over,
即使一种机制失效另一种也能及时补上
creating a virtually foolproof system.
创造出十分安全的系统
I can see I'm losing you, Bob, but stay with me,
我知道你开始听不懂了，鲍勃但请听我说完
because here is the really killer feature.
因为现在才是产品的杀手锏
The product is completely adaptive.
这种产品具有极强的适应力
It's able to actually develop targeted antibodies
它可以针对从未见过的病原
to threats that it's never even met before.
制造出相应的抗体
It actually also does this with incredible prudence,
它还十分精准
detecting and reacting to every tiny threat,
发现并对每种危机做出反应
and furthermore, remembering every previous threat,
并且记住每一次外界入侵
in case they are ever encountered again.
以防再次遭遇同种危险
What I'm pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product.
我今天想和你们讲的其实不是一种独立运作的产品
The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body,
这种产品与整个人体相结合
and it works in complete harmony with that system,
并且和整体和谐共处
to create this unprecedented level of biological protection.
创造出了史无前例的生物保护机制
So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?
鲍勃，请你诚实地告诉我你觉得这款产品怎么样？
And Bob may say something like,
鲍勃可能会说
I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion
我真挚地赞赏你在展示中
that have gone into your presentation,
所表现出的努力和热情
blah blah blah --
啦啦啦啦……
(Laughter)
（笑声）
But honestly, it's total nonsense.
但是讲实话，简直是胡说八道
You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product
你似乎在讲你产品的买点
are that it is inefficient and complex.
是它的极其低效和冗杂
Didn't they teach you 80-20?
你难道没有学过80/20法则吗？
And furthermore, you're saying that this product is siloed.
而且你还似乎在说这种产品很浪费
It overreacts,
它反应过激
makes things up as it goes along
制造出东西又无的放矢
and is actually designed for somebody else's benefit.
效益明显不高
I'm sorry to break it to you, but I don't think this one is a winner.
很抱歉让你遗憾了但它肯定没有希望
If we went with Bob's philosophy,
如果我们同意鲍勃的观点
I think we'd actually end up with a more efficient immune system.
我们实际上肯定了一种更为高效的免疫系统
And efficiency is always important in the short term.
而且效率在短期来说往往十分重要
Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck.
少些复杂，多些效率更合算些
Who could say no to that?
谁会拒绝这些好处呢？
Unfortunately, there's one very tiny problem,
不幸的是，有一个小小的问题
and that is that the user of this product, you or I,
那就是如果你我有着这样的免疫系统
would probably die within one week of the next winter,
那么在遭遇新型传染病毒时
when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.
你我可能活不过下一个冬天的头一周
I first became interested in biology and business,
我第一次对生物与商业
and longevity and resilience,
以及持久性和抗压性赶到兴趣
when I was asked a very unusual question by the CEO of a global tech company.
是在被一个全球科技公司的CEO问了一个问题时
And the question was:
那个问题是
What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years?
怎样确保我们的公司能够持续运作100年？
A seemingly innocent question,
看上去是一个幼稚的问题
but actually, it's a little trickier than you might think,
但是问题远没有你想的这么简单
considering that the average US public company now
美国现在普通的公共公司
can expect a life span of only 30 years.
通常只有30年的寿命
That is less than half of the life span
这几乎是它的员工
that its employees can expect to enjoy.
工作寿命的一半
Now, if you were the CEO of such a company,
现在，如果你是这样一个公司的CEO
badgered by investors and buffeted by change,
被投资者纠缠不放因变化而遭受打击
we might forgive you for not even worrying too much
可以理解你不为
about what happens 30 years out.
之后30年的事操心太多
But here's something that should keep you awake at night:
但有些事可能会让你难以入眠
the probability that your company will not be around in five year's time,
你的公司在5年后倒闭的可能性
on average, is now a staggering 32 percent.
平均在32%上下浮动
That's a one in three chance that your company will be taken over
也就是有三分之一的几率
or will fail within just five years.
你的公司会在5年后被转手或是倒闭
Let's come back to our tech CEO's question.
又来说说科技公司老板的问题
Where better to turn for advice than nature,
哪里有向比大自然求教更好的呢？
that's been in the business of life and death for longer than any company?
大自然已经在生死轮回的游戏中比任何公司存活得都要久了
As a lapsed biologist,
作为一个不务正业的生物学家
I decided to immediately call a real biologist,
我马上联系了一个更专业的生物学者
my friend Simon Levin,
我朋友赛门·莱文
Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University.
普林斯顿大学的生物学和数学教授
Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems,
我们共同研究了许多生态系统
ranging from natural tropical rainforests
从自然热带雨林
through to managed forests and fisheries.
到人造森林和鱼塘
And we asked ourselves the question:
我们问了自己一个问题
What makes these systems resilient and enduring?
是什么使这些系统具有抗压能力和持续性
And what we found was that the same six principles
我们发现恰恰是支撑着人体免疫系统的
that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system
六条规律
actually cropped up again and again,
一次又一次地表现出来
from redundancy through to embeddedness.
从庞大性到镶嵌性
In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems,
事实上，我们不只是在生物持久的系统中发现这些规律
we also found them being very characteristic of long-lived social systems,
我们还发现 它们在寿命长久的社会系统中也表现得十分突出
like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church,
就像在罗马帝国和天主教堂中的表现
believe it or not.
——信不信由你——
We also went on to look at business,
我们还研究了商界
and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses
也发现它们在坚韧且长久的企业中
that were resilient and long-lived,
表现的非常明显
and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.
并且发现了短命的企业中这种品质的缺失
Let's first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system collapses.
先来看看当企业的免疫机制失效时会发生什么
This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex in Osaka, Japan.
这栋美丽的建筑是日本大阪四天王寺寺庙的一部分
In fact, it's one of the oldest temples in Japan.
事实上它是日本最老的建筑之一
It was built by a Korean artisan,
它由一个韩国工匠修建
because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples.
由于在那时日本还不会修建寺庙
And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company.
这个韩国工匠创建了一个修建寺庙的公司
Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi,
十分神奇的是，他的公司Kongō Gumi
was still around 1,428 years later.
在1480年后仍然存在
In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company in the world.
实际上，它成为了世界上持续经营的最古老的公司
So how is Kongō Gumi doing today?
Kongō Gumi现在怎么样了呢
Not too well, I'm afraid.
恐怕不是很好
It borrowed very heavily during the bubble period of the Japanese economy,
在日本经济泡沫时期借了很重的债
to invest in real estate.
来投资房地产
And when the bubble burst, it couldn't refinance its loans.
当经济泡沫破裂时它不能偿还债务
The company failed,
公司破产了
and it was taken over by a major construction company.
被一所主流建筑公司收购
Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship by the Kongō family,
可悲的是，在 Kongō家族40代的苦心经营之后
Kongō Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.
Kongō Gumi最终屈服于在精准运营上的巨大失败
Speaking of company failures:
讲到公司倒闭
we're all familiar with the failure of Kodak,
我们都熟悉柯达公司的失败
the company that declared bankruptcy in January 2012.
柯达在2012年一月宣布破产
Much more interesting, however, is the question:
然而更为有趣的是:
Why did Fujifilm --
为什么富士胶片
same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time --
——同样的产品，相同的数码科技界的压力同样的时间段——
why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?
为什么富士胶片能够存活下来并且欣欣向荣？
Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics
富士胶片运用了自己在化学，材料科学和光学上的造诣
to diversify into a number of areas,
将自己的涉及领域多样化
ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
从化妆品到医药
to medical systems to biomaterials.
到医学系统、到生物材料
Some of these diversification attempts failed.
有一些多样化的尝试失败了
But in aggregate,
但是总体来说
it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently
它能够充足地转换自己的组合
to survive and flourish.
从而幸存并且繁荣
As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
就像其CEO，Komori先生说的
the strategy succeeded because it had "more pockets and drawers" than the rivals.
这种策略之所以成功是因为它比同行有更多的“口袋”和“抽屉”
He meant, of course,
他的意思当然是
that they were able to create more options than the rivals.
他们比同行创造了更多的选择空间
Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence,
富士胶片存活了下来因为它采用了这些规律：精准
diversity
多样化
and adaptation.
和适应能力
A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here,
像我们看到的这张图一场灾难性的工厂大火
completely wiped out, in one evening,
在一个晚上完全地摧毁了
the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems.
为丰田刹车系统提供阀门的唯一一个工厂
The ultimate test of resilience.
这是对抗压能力的终极考验
Car production ground to a screeching halt.
汽车生产进入了中断
How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production?
之后怎么样了呢？丰田是否能否重整旗鼓恢复汽车生产？
Can you imagine how long it took?
你能想象这花了多长时间吗？
Just five days.
仅仅只有五天
From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days.
从没有刹车阀门到完全恢复生产只用了五天时间
How was this possible?
这怎么可能呢？
Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner
丰田用一种合作的方式组织供销商网络
that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers to repurpose production,
因此能够与供销商迅速顺利地合作来重振生产
fill the missing braking valve capacity
弥补缺失的刹车阀门生产能力
and have car production come online again.
让汽车生产重新运作
Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network,
丰田运用了供给网络的模块化原理
embeddedness in an integrated system
在相互结合的系统中的镶嵌原理
and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
以及有效的庞大性来达到顺利重整
existing capacity.
现有生产能力的效果
Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires.
幸运的是，很少有公司因大火而破产
But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies
但我们却每天在报纸上读到
succumbing to the disruption of technology.
有公司因为科技的干扰而倒闭
How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor
光学巨头伊视路
is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it?
是怎样避免科技干扰甚至从中获利的呢？
And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal in software and electronics.
是的，科技干扰不仅仅在软件和电子业上意义重大
Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment
伊视路仔细地在竞争环境中
for potentially disruptive technologies.
审查了可能存在的干扰科技
It acquires those technologies very early,
在这些科技的价格变得高昂或者同行得到它们之前
before they've become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them,
伊视路很早就获取了这些科技
and it then develops those technologies itself,
然后它自己发展它们
even at the risk of failure
甚至冒着失败
or the risk of self-disruption.
和自我干扰的风险
Essilor stays ahead of its game,
伊视路保持在了前列
and has delivered spectacular performance for over 40 years,
通过运用精准和适应的法则在近40年内
by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.
它表现了出色的成绩
OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking,
好了，既然这些法则如此强大你可能会想
why are they not commonplace in business?
为什么在商界不常见到它们呢？
Why do we not use these words every day?
为什么它们还不是老生常谈？
Well, change has to first start in the mind.
好吧，改变首先得从思想开始
If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
如果我们回想对鲍勃的推销
in order to apply the principles that underpin the miracle of the human immune system,
为了运用支撑人体免疫机制的几条法则
we first need to think differently about business.
我们首先得从另一个角度来思考商业
Now typically, when we think about business,
通常，当我们想到商业的时候
we use what I call "mechanical thinking."
我们使用我所谓的“力学思考法”
We set goals,
我们制定目标
we analyze problems,
分析问题
we construct and we adhere to plans,
制定并执行计划
and more than anything else,
最为重要的是
we stress efficiency and short-term performance.
我们强调效率和短期表现
Now, don't get me wrong --
现在，请不要搞错
this is a splendidly practical and effective way
这是一种在相对稳定的环境中
of addressing relatively simple challenges
解决较为简单的问题时
in relatively stable environments.
十分有效和实际的方式
It's the way that Bob -- and probably many of us, myself included --
这是鲍勃——还有包括我在内的我们中许多人——
process most business problems we're faced with every day.
处理我们每天面临的大多数商业问题的办法
In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business --
事实上，这曾是一种良好的商业思想模型
overall --
总体地——
until about the mid-1980s,
直到20世纪80年代中期
when the conjunction of globalization
全球化和科技革命、通信技术的结合
and a revolution in technology and telecommunications
使得商业变得
made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.
比以往更具活力、更难以预测
But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations
那么当我们现在面临更具活力和不可预测性的情况时
that we now increasingly face?
该怎么应对呢？
I think in addition to the mechanical thinking,
我认为除了力学思考法外
we now need to master the art of biological thinking,
现在我们得掌握生物思考的艺术
as embodied by our six principles.
就像我们的六条守则所传达的一样
In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly
换言之，我们得更为谦虚和细致地考虑
about when and how
何时、怎样
we can shape, rather than control,
塑造而不是控制
unpredictable and complex situations.
不可预测的复杂情况
It's a little like the difference between throwing a ball
这有点像扔一个球
and releasing a bird.
和放飞一只鸟的区别
The ball would head in a straight line,
球可以直接以从上方观察的直线
probably towards the intended target,
飞向既定的目标
and the bird certainly would not.
鸟显然不能
So what do you think?
你们怎么想呢？
Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps?
听起来有点不切实际有点纯理论化了，是吗？
Not at all.
一点也不
Every small entrepreneurial company
每个小型企业
naturally thinks and acts biologically.
都自然而然地生物化地思考和行动
Why?
这是为什么呢？
Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment through brute force.
因为它们缺少通过自身能力塑造周围环境的条件
It lacks the scale to buffer change,
它没有能够迎接改变的规模
and it's constantly thinking about the tough odds
并且它不断地在思考
for a start-up to survive.
起步时渺茫的生存机会
Now, the irony is, of course,
现在，讽刺的是，当然
that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company.
每一个大型公司都开始于 一个小型企业
But along the way somewhere,
但是在发展的某一阶段
many have lost this ability to think and act biologically.
许多公司丢失了生物化思考和行动的能力
They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically
他们需要重拾生物化思考的能力
in order to survive and thrive in today's environment.
以便在今天的环境中存活并繁荣
So let's not just think about short-term performance.
让我们不要再只考虑短期表现吧
Every company I know spends plenty of time
我所知道的每一个公司都花大量的时间
thinking about the central question of strategy:
思考他们的战略核心：
How good is our competitive game?
我们的竞争力还有多少？
In addition, let's also consider
除此之外，为什么不考虑
the second, more biological and equally important question:
第二个，更为生物化而且同等重要的问题：
How long will that game last?
我们还能坚持多久？
Thank you very much.
谢谢
(Applause)
（掌声）