声明: 本站全部内容源自互联网,不进行任何盈利行为
仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
Economists have been exploring people's behavior for hundreds of years:
[AI] 数百年来，经济学家一直在探索人们的行为：
how we make decisions.
[AI] 我们如何做决定。
how we act individually and in groups.
[AI] 我们如何单独和集体行动。
how we exchange value.
[AI] 我们如何交换价值。
They've studied the institutions that facilitate our trade.
[AI] 他们研究了促进我们贸易的机构。
like legal systems.
[AI] 比如法律制度。
corporations.
[AI] 公司。
marketplaces.
[AI] 市场。
But there is a new. technological institution
[AI] 但是有一个新的问题。技术机构
that will fundamentally change how we exchange value.
[AI] 这将从根本上改变我们交换价值的方式。
and it's called the blockchain.
[AI] 它被称为区块链。
Now. that's a pretty bold statement.
[AI] 现在这是一个相当大胆的说法。
but if you take nothing else away from this talk.
[AI] 但是如果你不从这次谈话中拿走任何东西。
I actually want you to remember
[AI] 我真的想让你记住
that while blockchain technology is relatively new.
[AI] 虽然区块链技术相对较新。
it's also a continuation of a very human story.
[AI] 这也是一个非常人性化的故事的延续。
and the story is this.
[AI] 故事就是这样。
As humans. we find ways
[AI] 作为人类。我们找到办法
to lower uncertainty about one another
[AI] 降低彼此之间的不确定性
so that we can exchange value.
[AI] 这样我们才能交换价值。
Now. one of the first people to really explore the idea
[AI] 现在第一批真正探索这个想法的人之一
of institutions as a tool in economics
[AI] 将制度作为经济学的工具
to lower our uncertainties about one another
[AI] 降低我们之间的不确定性
and be able to do trade
[AI] 并且能够做生意
was the Nobel economist Douglass North.
[AI] 诺贝尔经济学奖得主道格拉斯·诺斯。
He passed away at the end of 2015.
[AI] 他于2015年底去世。
but North pioneered what's called "new institutional economics."
[AI] 但诺斯开创了所谓的“新制度经济学”
And what he meant by institutions were really just formal rules
[AI] 他所说的制度实际上只是正式的规则
like a constitution.
[AI] 就像宪法一样。
and informal constraints. like bribery.
[AI] 和非正式约束。比如贿赂。
These institutions are really the grease
[AI] 这些机构确实是润滑脂
that allow our economic wheels to function.
[AI] 让我们的经济车轮运转起来。
and we can see this play out over the course of human history.
[AI] 我们可以在人类历史的进程中看到这种情况。
If we think back to when we were hunter-gatherer economies.
[AI] 如果我们回想一下我们是狩猎-采集经济体的时候。
we really just traded within our village structure.
[AI] 我们实际上只是在我们的村庄结构内进行交易。
We had some informal constraints in place.
[AI] 我们有一些非正式的限制。
but we enforced all of our trade with violence
[AI] 但我们用暴力强制执行我们所有的贸易
or social repercussions.
[AI] 或社会反响。
As our societies grew more complex
[AI] 随着我们的社会变得越来越复杂
and our trade routes grew more distant.
[AI] 我们的贸易路线变得越来越遥远。
we built up more formal institutions.
[AI] 我们建立了更多的正规机构。
institutions like banks for currency.
[AI] 像银行这样的机构需要货币。
governments. corporations.
[AI] 政府。公司。
These institutions helped us manage our trade
[AI] 这些机构帮助我们管理贸易
as the uncertainty and the complexity grew.
[AI] 随着不确定性和复杂性的增加。
and our personal control was much lower.
[AI] 我们的个人控制力要低得多。
Eventually with the internet. we put these same institutions online.
[AI] 最后是互联网。我们把这些机构放到网上。
We built platform marketplaces like Amazon. eBay. Alibaba.
[AI] 我们建立了类似亚马逊这样的平台市场。易趣网。阿里巴巴。
just faster institutions that act as middlemen
[AI] 只是充当中间人的更快的机构
to facilitate human economic activity.
[AI] 促进人类经济活动。
As Douglass North saw it.
[AI] 正如道格拉斯·诺斯所见。
institutions are a tool to lower uncertainty
[AI] 制度是降低不确定性的工具
so that we can connect and exchange all kinds of value in society.
[AI] 这样我们就可以连接和交换社会上的各种价值观。
And I believe we are now entering
[AI] 我相信我们现在正在进入
a further and radical evolution
[AI] 进一步的、激进的演变
of how we interact and trade.
[AI] 我们如何互动和贸易。
because for the first time. we can lower uncertainty
[AI] 因为这是第一次。我们可以降低不确定性
not just with political and economic institutions.
[AI] 不仅仅是政治和经济机构。
like our banks. our corporations. our governments.
[AI] 比如我们的银行。我们的公司。我们的政府。
but we can do it with technology alone.
[AI] 但我们可以单靠技术来做到这一点。
So what is the blockchain?
[AI] 那么，区块链是什么？
Blockchain technology is a decentralized database
[AI] 区块链技术是一种分散的数据库
that stores a registry of assets and transactions
[AI] 用于存储资产和交易的注册表
across a peer-to-peer network.
[AI] 通过对等网络。
It's basically a public registry
[AI] 它基本上是一个公共注册中心
of who owns what and who transacts what.
[AI] 谁拥有什么，谁交易什么。
The transactions are secured through cryptography.
[AI] 交易通过加密技术进行保护。
and over time. that transaction history gets locked in blocks of data
[AI] 随着时间的推移。事务历史记录被锁定在数据块中
that are then cryptographically linked together and secured.
[AI] 然后以加密方式连接在一起并加以保护。
This creates an immutable. unforgeable record
[AI] 这将创建一个不可变的。不可伪造的记录
of all of the transactions across this network.
[AI] 此网络中的所有事务。
This record is replicated on every computer that uses the network.
[AI] 此记录将复制到使用网络的每台计算机上。
It's not an app.
[AI] 这不是一个应用程序。
It's not a company.
[AI] 这不是一家公司。
I think it's closest in description to something like Wikipedia.
[AI] 我认为它的描述最接近维基百科。
We can see everything on Wikipedia.
[AI] 我们可以在维基百科上看到一切。
It's a composite view that's constantly changing and being updated.
[AI] 这是一个不断变化和更新的复合视图。
We can also track those changes over time on Wikipedia.
[AI] 我们还可以在维基百科上追踪这些变化。
and we can create our own wikis.
[AI] 我们可以创建自己的维基。
because at their core. they're just a data infrastructure.
[AI] 因为在他们的核心。它们只是一个数据基础设施。
On Wikipedia. it's an open platform that stores words and images
[AI] 在维基百科上。这是一个存储文字和图像的开放平台
and the changes to that data over time.
[AI] 以及数据随时间的变化。
On the blockchain.
[AI] 在区块链上。
you can think of it as an open infrastructure
[AI] 你可以把它看作是一个开放的基础设施
that stores many kinds of assets.
[AI] 它存储了多种资产。
It stores the history of custodianship.
[AI] 它存储了保管历史。
ownership and location
[AI] 所有权和地点
for assets like the digital currency Bitcoin.
[AI] 对于数字货币比特币等资产。
other digital assets
[AI] 其他数字资产
like a title of ownership of IP.
[AI] 就像知识产权的所有权一样。
It could be a certificate. a contract.
[AI] 它可能是一个证书。合同。
real world objects.
[AI] 真实世界的对象。
even personal identifiable information.
[AI] 甚至个人身份信息。
There are of course other technical details to the blockchain.
[AI] 当然，区块链还有其他技术细节。
but at its core. that's how it works.
[AI] 但其核心是。这就是它的工作原理。
It's this public registry that stores transactions in a network
[AI] 正是这个公共注册表在网络中存储事务
and is replicated so that it's very secure and hard to tamper with.
[AI] 而且是复制的，所以它非常安全，不易篡改。
Which brings me to my point
[AI] 这就引出了我的观点
of how blockchains lower uncertainty
[AI] 区块链如何降低不确定性
and how they therefore promise to transform our economic systems
[AI] 以及他们如何承诺改变我们的经济体系
in radical ways.
[AI] 以激进的方式。
So uncertainty is kind of a big term
[AI] 所以不确定性是一个很大的术语
in economics.
[AI] 经济学。
but I want to go through three forms of it
[AI] 但我想经历三种形式
that we face in almost all of our everyday transactions.
[AI] 我们在几乎所有日常交易中都会遇到这种情况。
where blockchains can play a role.
[AI] 区块链可以在其中发挥作用。
We face uncertainties like not knowing who we're dealing with.
[AI] 我们面临着不确定因素，比如不知道我们在和谁打交道。
not having visibility into a transaction
[AI] 对事务没有可见性
and not having recourse if things go wrong.
[AI] 如果出了问题就没有追索权。
So let's take the first example. not knowing who we're dealing with.
[AI] 让我们来看第一个例子。不知道我们在和谁打交道。
Say I want to buy a used smartphone on eBay.
[AI] 比如说我想在易趣上买一部二手智能手机。
The first thing I'm going to do is look up who I'm buying from.
[AI] 我要做的第一件事就是查一下我从谁那里买的。
Are they a power user?
[AI] 他们是超级用户吗？
Do they have great reviews and ratings. or do they have no profile at all?
[AI] 他们有好的评论和评级吗。或者他们根本没有个人资料？
Reviews. ratings. checkmarks:
[AI] 评论。收视率。复选标记：
these are the attestations about our identities
[AI] 这些是关于我们身份的证明
that we cobble together today
[AI] 我们今天拼凑在一起
and use to lower uncertainty about who we're dealing with.
[AI] 并用于降低我们与谁打交道的不确定性。
But the problem is they're very fragmented.
[AI] 但问题是它们非常分散。
Think about how many profiles you have.
[AI] 想想你有多少个人资料。
Blockchains allow for us to create an open. global platform
[AI] 区块链允许我们创造一个开放的市场。全球平台
on which to store any attestation about any individual
[AI] 用于存储任何个人的任何证明
from any source.
[AI] 来自任何来源。
This allows us to create a user-controlled
[AI] 这允许我们创建一个用户控制的
portable identity.
[AI] 便携式身份。
More than a profile.
[AI] 不仅仅是个人资料。
it means you can selectively reveal
[AI] 这意味着你可以有选择地透露
the different attributes about you
[AI] 关于你的不同属性
that help facilitate trade or interaction.
[AI] 这有助于促进贸易或互动。
for instance that a government issued you an ID.
[AI] 例如，政府发给你一个身份证。
or that you're over 21.
[AI] 或者你已经超过21岁了。
by revealing the cryptographic proof
[AI] 通过揭示密码证明
that these details exist and are signed off on.
[AI] 这些详细信息已存在并已签署。
Having this kind of portable identity
[AI] 具有这种可移植的身份
around the physical world and the digital world
[AI] 物理世界和数字世界
means we can do all kinds of human trade
[AI] 意味着我们可以做各种各样的人力交易
in a totally new way.
[AI] 以一种全新的方式。
So I've talked about how blockchains could lower uncertainty
[AI] 所以我谈到了区块链如何降低不确定性
in who we're dealing with.
[AI] 我们在和谁打交道。
The second uncertainty that we often face
[AI] 我们经常面临的第二个不确定性
is just not having transparency into our interactions.
[AI] 就是我们的互动没有透明度。
Say you're going to send me that smartphone by mail.
[AI] 比如说你要把智能手机邮寄给我。
I want some degree of transparency.
[AI] 我需要一定程度的透明度。
I want to know that the product I bought is the same one that arrives in the mail
[AI] 我想知道我买的产品和邮寄的是同一件
and that there's some record for how it got to me.
[AI] 还有一些关于它如何影响到我的记录。
This is true not just for electronics like smartphones.
[AI] 这不仅适用于智能手机等电子产品。
but for many kinds of goods and data.
[AI] 但是对于许多种类的商品和数据。
things like medicine. luxury goods.
[AI] 像药物之类的东西。奢侈品。
any kind of data or product that we don't want tampered with.
[AI] 任何我们不希望被篡改的数据或产品。
The problem in many companies.
[AI] 许多公司都存在这个问题。
especially those that produce something complicated like a smartphone.
[AI] 尤其是那些生产像智能手机这样复杂产品的公司。
is they're managing all of these different vendors
[AI] 他们管理着所有这些不同的供应商
across a horizontal supply chain.
[AI] 横向供应链。
All of these people that go into making a product.
[AI] 所有这些从事产品制造的人。
they don't have the same database.
[AI] 它们没有相同的数据库。
They don't use the same infrastructure.
[AI] 它们不使用相同的基础设施。
and so it becomes really hard to see transparently a product evolve over time.
[AI] 因此，很难透明地看到产品随着时间的推移而演变。
Using the blockchain. we can create
[AI] 使用区块链。我们可以创造
a shared reality across nontrusting entities.
[AI] 跨非信任实体的共享现实。
By this I mean
[AI] 我的意思是说
all of these nodes in the network do not need to know each other
[AI] 网络中的所有这些节点不需要相互了解
or trust each other.
[AI] 或者相互信任。
because they each have the ability
[AI] 因为他们每个人都有能力
to monitor and validate the chain for themselves.
[AI] 为自己监控和验证链。
Think back to Wikipedia.
[AI] 回想一下维基百科。
It's a shared database.
[AI] 这是一个共享数据库。
and even though it has multiple readers
[AI] 即使它有多个阅读器
and multiple writers at the same time.
[AI] 同时有多个作者。
it has one single truth.
[AI] 它只有一个真理。
So we can create that using blockchains.
[AI] 所以我们可以使用区块链来创建它。
We can create a decentralized database that has the same efficiency of a monopoly
[AI] 我们可以创建一个分散的数据库，其效率与垄断数据库相同
without actually creating that central authority.
[AI] 没有真正建立中央权威。
So all of these vendors. all sorts of companies.
[AI] 所以所有这些供应商。各种各样的公司。
can interact using the same database without trusting one another.
[AI] 可以使用相同的数据库进行交互，而不必相互信任。
It means for consumers. we can have a lot more transparency.
[AI] 这意味着对消费者而言。我们可以有更多的透明度。
As a real-world object travels along.
[AI] 当一个真实世界的物体移动时。
we can see its digital certificate or token move on the blockchain.
[AI] 我们可以看到其数字证书或令牌在区块链上移动。
adding value as it goes.
[AI] 不断增加价值。
This is a whole new world in terms of our visibility.
[AI] 就我们的能见度而言，这是一个全新的世界。
So I've talked about how blockchains can lower our uncertainties about identity
[AI] 所以我谈到了区块链如何降低我们对身份的不确定性
and how they change what we mean about transparency
[AI] 以及他们如何改变我们对透明度的理解
in long distances and complex trades. like in a supply chain.
[AI] 在长途和复杂的贸易中。就像在供应链中一样。
The last uncertainty that we often face
[AI] 我们经常面临的最后一个不确定性
is one of the most open-ended. and it's reneging.
[AI] 是最开放的一种。而且它在背叛。
What if you don't send me the smartphone?
[AI] 如果你不给我智能手机怎么办？
Can I get my money back?
[AI] 我能拿回我的钱吗？
Blockchains allow us to write code.
[AI] 区块链允许我们编写代码。
binding contracts.
[AI] 具有约束力的合同。
between individuals
[AI] 个人之间
and then guarantee that those contracts will bear out
[AI] 然后保证这些合同将得到执行
without a third party enforcer.
[AI] 没有第三方执行者。
So if we look at the smartphone example. you could think about escrow.
[AI] 因此，如果我们看看智能手机的例子。你可以考虑代管。
You are financing that phone.
[AI] 你在资助那部电话。
but you don't need to release the funds
[AI] 但你不需要释放资金
until you can verify that all the conditions have been met.
[AI] 直到您能够验证是否满足所有条件。
You got the phone.
[AI] 你有电话。
I think this is one of the most exciting ways
[AI] 我认为这是最令人兴奋的方式之一
that blockchains lower our uncertainties.
[AI] 区块链降低了我们的不确定性。
because it means to some degree
[AI] 因为它在某种程度上意味着
we can collapse institutions and their enforcement.
[AI] 我们可以摧毁机构及其执行。
It means a lot of human economic activity
[AI] 它意味着大量的人类经济活动
can get collateralized and automated.
[AI] 可以进行抵押和自动化。
and push a lot of human intervention to the edges.
[AI] 并将大量的人为干预推向边缘。
the places where information moves from the real world to the blockchain.
[AI] 信息从真实世界移动到区块链的地方。
I think what would probably floor Douglass North
[AI] 我想道格拉斯·诺斯可能会怎么样
about this use of technology
[AI] 关于这项技术的使用
is the fact that the very thing that makes it work.
[AI] 事实上，正是这件事让它起作用。
the very thing that keeps the blockchain secure and verified.
[AI] 正是这一点使区块链安全并得到验证。
is our mutual distrust.
[AI] 这是我们之间的互不信任。
So rather than all of our uncertainties
[AI] 因此，与其说我们所有的不确定性
slowing us down
[AI] 让我们慢下来
and requiring institutions
[AI] 以及要求设立机构
like banks. our governments. our corporations.
[AI] 比如银行。我们的政府。我们的公司。
we can actually harness all of that collective uncertainty
[AI] 我们实际上可以利用所有的集体不确定性
and use it to collaborate and exchange more and faster and more open.
[AI] 并使用它进行协作和交流，速度越来越快，开放性越来越强。
Now. I don't want you to get the impression
[AI] 现在我不想让你得到这个印象
that the blockchain is the solution to everything.
[AI] 区块链是一切的解决方案。
even though the media has said that it's going to end world poverty.
[AI] 尽管媒体说这将结束世界贫困。
it's also going to solve the counterfeit drug problem
[AI] 它还将解决假药问题
and potentially save the rainforest.
[AI] 并有可能拯救雨林。
The truth is. this technology is in its infancy.
[AI] 事实是。这项技术还处于起步阶段。
and we're going to need to see a lot of experiments take place
[AI] 我们需要看到大量的实验进行
and probably fail
[AI] 可能会失败
before we truly understand all of the use cases
[AI] 在我们真正理解所有用例之前
for our economy.
[AI] 为了我们的经济。
But there are tons of people working on this.
[AI] 但是有很多人在做这件事。
from financial institutions
[AI] 来自金融机构
to technology companies. start-ups and universities.
[AI] 给科技公司。初创企业和大学。
And one of the reasons is that it's not just an economic evolution.
[AI] 其中一个原因是，这不仅仅是经济发展。
It's also an innovation in computer science.
[AI] 这也是计算机科学的一项创新。
Blockchains give us the technological capability
[AI] 区块链给了我们技术能力
of creating a record of human exchange.
[AI] 创造人类交流的记录。
of exchange of currency.
[AI] 货币的交换。
of all kinds of digital and physical assets.
[AI] 所有类型的数字和实物资产。
even of our own personal attributes.
[AI] 甚至我们自己的个人属性。
in a totally new way.
[AI] 以一种全新的方式。
So in some ways.
[AI] 所以在某些方面。
they become a technological institution
[AI] 他们变成了一个技术机构
that has a lot of the benefits
[AI] 这有很多好处
of the traditional institutions we're used to using in society.
[AI] 我们习惯于在社会上使用的传统机构。
but it does this in a decentralized way.
[AI] 但它是以分散的方式实现这一点的。
It does this by converting a lot of our uncertainties
[AI] 它通过转换我们的许多不确定性来实现这一点
into certainties.
[AI] 进入确定性。
So I think we need to start preparing ourselves.
[AI] 所以我认为我们需要开始准备。
because we are about to face a world
[AI] 因为我们即将面对一个世界
where distributed. autonomous institutions
[AI] 分布在哪里。自治机构
have quite a significant role.
[AI] 有相当重要的作用。
Thank you.
[AI] 非常感谢。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）
Bruno Giussani: Thank you. Bettina.
[AI] 布鲁诺·朱萨尼：谢谢。贝蒂娜。
I think I understood that it's coming.
[AI] 我想我知道它就要来了。
it offers a lot of potential.
[AI] 它提供了很大的潜力。
and it's complex.
[AI] 而且很复杂。
What is your estimate for the rate of adoption?
[AI] 你估计收养率是多少？
Bettina Warburg: I think that's a really good question.
[AI] 贝蒂娜·沃伯格：我认为这是一个非常好的问题。
My lab is pretty much focused
[AI] 我的实验室非常专注
on going the enterprise and government route first.
[AI] 先走企业和政府路线。
because in reality. blockchain is a complex technology.
[AI] 因为在现实中。区块链是一项复杂的技术。
How many of you actually understand how the internet works?
[AI] 你们当中有多少人真正了解互联网的工作原理？
But you use it every day.
[AI] 但是你每天都在用它。
so I think we're sort of facing the same John Sculley idea
[AI] 所以我认为我们面临着约翰·斯库利的想法
of technology should either be invisible or beautiful.
[AI] 技术的本质要么是无形的，要么是美丽的。
and blockchain is kind of neither of those things right now.
[AI] 而区块链现在不是这两种东西。
so it's better suited for either really early adopters
[AI] 所以它更适合任何一个真正的早期使用者
who kind of get it and can tinker around
[AI] 谁能得到它，能到处修补
or for finding those best use cases
[AI] 或者寻找那些最佳用例
like identity or asset tracking or smart contracts
[AI] 比如身份或资产跟踪或智能合约
that can be used at that level of an enterprise or government.
[AI] 可用于该级别的企业或政府。
BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED.
[AI] BG：谢谢。谢谢你来TED。
BW: Thanks.
[AI] BW：谢谢。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）