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【TED】为什么好奇心是科学与医药的钥匙?

 

Science. 科学。 The very word for many of you conjures unhappy memories of boredom 这个词对于你们中的很多人来说, 召唤了对于高中生物 in high school biology or physics class. 或是物理课堂的苦闷记忆。 But let me assure that what you did there 但是我向你们保证, 你们在那时经历的 had very little to do with science. 与科学是大相径庭的。 That was really the "what" of science. 那只是科学“是什么”。 It was the history of what other people had discovered. 那是前人发现的历史记载。 What I'm most interested in as a scientist 我对于成为一名科学家 最感兴趣的地方 is the "how" of science. 是科学的“为什么”。 Because science is knowledge in process. 因为科学的知识是正在探寻中的。 We make an observation, guess an explanation for that observation, 我们进行观察, 对观察提出一种设想原因, and then make a prediction that we can test 做一种可以通过实验或是 with an experiment or other observation. 其他观察论证的假设。 A couple of examples. 举些例子。 First of all, people noticed that the Earth was below, the sky above, 首先,人们注意到了 大地在脚下,天空在头顶, and both the Sun and the Moon seemed to go around them. 太阳和月亮都看似 围绕着它们在移动 Their guessed explanation 他们提出的设想是 was that the Earth must be the center of the universe. 地球一定是宇宙的中心。 The prediction: everything should circle around the Earth. 预测即为:一切都是围绕着地球运动的。 This was first really tested 当伽里略着手于第一台望远镜, when Galileo got his hands on one of the first telescopes, 望向天空的时候,这件事第一次 and as he gazed into the night sky, 被真正测试了, what he found there was a planet, Jupiter, 他发现的是一颗行星,木星, with four moons circling around it. 周围还有四颗卫星环绕着它。 He then used those moons to follow the path of Jupiter 之后,他又利用这些卫星 去跟踪木星的轨道 and found that Jupiter also was not going around the Earth 发现木星也不是围绕地球运动的 but around the Sun. 而是围绕太阳运动的。 So the prediction test failed. 所以说这个假说测试就失败了。 And this led to the discarding of the theory 这就导致了地球是宇宙的中心 that the Earth was the center of the universe. 这个理论被推翻。 Another example: Sir Isaac Newton noticed that things fall to the Earth. 另一个例子:艾萨克·牛顿爵士 注意到了东西都是向地面坠落的。 The guessed explanation was gravity, 设想原因是引力, the prediction that everything should fall to the Earth. 预测是万物都会落向地面。 But of course, not everything does fall to the Earth. 但是当然,并不是 所有东西都落向地面的。 So did we discard gravity? 但是我们就抛弃引力吗? No. We revised the theory and said, gravity pulls things to the Earth 不。我们重新改写理论, 说引力将万物拉向地面, unless there is an equal and opposite force in the other direction. 除非事物还受到大小相同 方向相反的力的作用。 This led us to learn something new. 这引领我们学到了新的东西。 We began to pay more attention to the bird and the bird's wings, 我们开始更多的关注 鸟儿和它们的翅膀, and just think of all the discoveries 想一想从那条思路 that have flown from that line of thinking. 引出的一系列发现。 So the test failures, the exceptions, the outliers 所以那些测试的 失败,意外,异常值 teach us what we don't know and lead us to something new. 给我们传授了未知, 引领我们去发现新的东西。 This is how science moves forward. This is how science learns. 科学就是这样不断前行。 科学就是这样不断学习。 Sometimes in the media, and even more rarely, 有的时候在媒体当中, 甚至更罕见的, but sometimes even scientists will say 有时甚至科学家们会说 that something or other has been scientifically proven. 这个或是那个 已经被科学证明了。 But I hope that you understand that science never proves anything 但是,我希望你们能够明白, 科学从不能证明任何东西, definitively forever. 永远都不可能。 Hopefully science remains curious enough 希望科学始终保持那种好奇感 to look for 让我们去探寻, and humble enough to recognize 和那种谦逊感, when we have found 当我们发现下一个异常值, the next outlier, 下一个特例, the next exception, 就像木星的卫星 那样的东西的时候, which, like Jupiter's moons, 能够让我们去认识, teaches us what we don't actually know. 教会我们那些我们并不了解的东西。 We're going to change gears here for a second. 我们要在这里变换一小会儿主题了。 The caduceus, or the symbol of medicine, 墨丘利的节杖, 或者说是医药的象征, means a lot of different things to different people, 对于不同的人,有着不同的意义, but most of our public discourse on medicine 但是我们的普遍公共医学论述 really turns it into an engineering problem. 却将它转变为了一个工程问题。 We have the hallways of Congress, 我们的国会长廊, and the boardrooms of insurance companies that try to figure out how to pay for it. 还有保险公司的董事会 都试图找到支付它们的途径 The ethicists and epidemiologists 伦理学家和流行病学家 try to figure out how best to distribute medicine, 试图找到如何更好分配药物的方法, and the hospitals and physicians are absolutely obsessed 医院和医生们却完全沉迷于 with their protocols and checklists, 他们的协议和清单, trying to figure out how best to safely apply medicine. 试图找到更安全应用药物的方法。 These are all good things. 这些都是好事。 However, they also all assume 但是,他们也都在 at some level 一定程度上假定了 that the textbook of medicine is closed. 医学教科书是封闭的。 We start to measure the quality of our health care 我们就开始以我们能 多快速的得到医疗服务 by how quickly we can access it. 来衡量我们的医疗质量。 It doesn't surprise me that in this climate, 在这种风气下, 许多机构 many of our institutions for the provision of health care 为寻求医疗服务, 开始大批搜寻润滑油的行为, start to look a heck of a lot like Jiffy Lube. 一点儿也不使我惊讶。 (Laughter) (笑声) The only problem is that when I graduated from medical school, 唯一的问题是, 当我从医学院毕业的时候, I didn't get one of those little doohickeys 我并没有得到那个 像是你的机械师 that your mechanic has to plug into your car 一插进你的汽车里就能知道 and find out exactly what's wrong with it, 车子哪里出问题的小窍门, because the textbook of medicine 因为医学课本 is not closed. 并非是封闭的。 Medicine is science. 医药是科学。 Medicine is knowledge in process. 医药是正在进程中的知识。 We make an observation, 我们先观察现象, we guess an explanation of that observation, 然后猜测现象背后的解释, and then we make a prediction that we can test. 之后我们作出一个 能够被测试的假设 Now, the testing ground of most predictions in medicine 当下,我们在医药领域 大多数的测试场地就是 is populations. 群体。 And you may remember from those boring days in biology class 然后也许你还记得 在那些无聊的生物课上 that populations tend to distribute 关于群体倾向于呈现 around a mean 围绕平均值的 as a Gaussian or a normal curve. 高斯或是正态分布曲线。 Therefore, in medicine, 因此,在医药领域, after we make a prediction from a guessed explanation, 在我们用一种可能的原因 作出预测之后, we test it in a population. 我们就在群体中测试它。 That means that what we know in medicine, 这就意味着,我们 关于医药学习的知识, our knowledge and our know-how, 我们的所有知识, comes from populations 都来自于群体, but extends only as far 而只有当达到 下一个异常值的时候, as the next outlier, 下一个特例, the next exception, 就像是木星卫星 那样的特例的时候, which, like Jupiter's moons, 我们的知识才会扩张, will teach us what we don't actually know. 它们教会了我们并不了解的东西。 Now, I am a surgeon 现在,我是一名外科医生, who looks after patients with sarcoma. 正在寻找肉瘤病人。 Sarcoma is a very rare form of cancer. 肉瘤是一种极其罕见的癌症。 It's the cancer of flesh and bones. 是骨与肌肉的癌变。 And I would tell you that every one of my patients is an outlier, 然后我会告诉你, 我的每一位病人都是异常值, is an exception. 都是特例。 There is no surgery I have ever performed for a sarcoma patient 我为这些肉瘤患者做的手术, 没有任何一个是对照着, that has ever been guided by a randomized controlled clinical trial, 临床实验案例,就是那些 我们认识中最适合医药的 what we consider the best kind of population-based evidence in medicine. 以群体为基础的实验证据, 没有任何一个是被其指导着完成的。 People talk about thinking outside the box, 人们总说要跳出定式思维, but we don't even have a box in sarcoma. 但是在肉瘤病症上,我们没有定式。 What we do have as we take a bath in the uncertainty 当我们沐浴在 关于肉瘤的,环绕我们的, and unknowns and exceptions and outliers that surround us in sarcoma 那些未知,不确定, 特例,异常值中的时候, is easy access to what I think are those two most important values 我们所拥有的,是我眼中 对于任何一种科学, for any science: 最重要的两种价值观: humility and curiosity. 谦逊和好奇心。 Because if I am humble and curious, 因为如果我是谦逊的,好奇心强的, when a patient asks me a question, 当病人询问我问题的时候, and I don't know the answer, 如果我不知道问题的答案, I'll ask a colleague 我就会去询问有着相似的, who may have a similar albeit distinct patient with sarcoma. 尽管是不同的肉瘤病人的同事。 We'll even establish international collaborations. 我们甚至会建立国际间的合作。 Those patients will start to talk to each other through chat rooms 那些病人也会开始 在聊天室和支持团体中 and support groups. 互相交流。 It's through this kind of humbly curious communication 是通过这种谦逊的, 好奇的交流过程, that we begin to try and learn new things. 我们开始去尝试并学习新的知识。 As an example, this is a patient of mine 作为例子,这是我的一位病人 who had a cancer near his knee. 他在膝盖附近长了一个肿瘤。 Because of humbly curious communication 正因为那种在国际合作中谦逊的 in international collaborations, 好奇心驱使的沟通, we have learned that we can repurpose the ankle to serve as the knee 我们学习到了如果必须 在移除肿瘤的同时移除膝盖, when we have to remove the knee with the cancer. 那么我们可以用踝关节 代替膝关节的位置。 He can then wear a prosthetic and run and jump and play. 这样他就可以带着假肢 跑,跳,玩耍了。 This opportunity was available to him 是国际间合作 because of international collaborations. 给了他这样的机会。 It was desirable to him 这也是他所希望的, because he had contacted other patients who had experienced it. 因为他与经历过这些的 其他病人联系过了。 And so exceptions and outliers in medicine 所以在医药领域的特例与异常值 teach us what we don't know, but also lead us to new thinking. 教会了我们那些不了解的东西, 同时也引发了我们作出新的思考。 Now, very importantly, 现在,非常重要的是, all the new thinking that outliers and exceptions lead us to in medicine 所有这些在医药领域 关于异常值和特例的新的思考 does not only apply to the outliers and exceptions. 并非只能运用于那些特例的情况中。 It is not that we only learn from sarcoma patients 我们从肉瘤病人身上学习到的, ways to manage sarcoma patients. 并非仅仅是治疗肉瘤病人的方法。 Sometimes, the outliers 有的时候,这些异常情况, and the exceptions 这些特例, teach us things that matter quite a lot to the general population. 也教会了我们一些,对大众 同样十分重要的事情。 Like a tree standing outside a forest, 就像是身处树林之外的一棵树, the outliers and the exceptions draw our attention 这些外围的,特例般的存在, 吸引了我们的注意力, and lead us into a much greater sense of perhaps what a tree is. 并能够引领我们得到一个,像是 “树是什么”,这种更为宏观的认识。 We often talk about losing the forests for the trees, 我们经常说,树木们失去了森林, but one also loses a tree 但是,我们也会 within a forest. 失去森林里的树木。 But the tree that stands out by itself 那些独自站立的树, makes those relationships that define a tree, 它们同样,甚至以一种更加明确的方式 the relationships between trunk and roots and branches, 定义了树木的概念, much more apparent. 树干,树根与树枝间的联系。 Even if that tree is crooked 即使那颗树是弯曲的, or even if that tree has very unusual relationships 或者甚至它的树干,树根与树枝 between trunk and roots and branches, 之间的联系是非同寻常的, it nonetheless draws our attention 它吸引了我们的注意力, and allows us to make observations 让我们作出了观察, that we can then test in the general population. 然后能够在普试群体中进行测试。 I told you that sarcomas are rare. 我告诉过你们了,肉瘤是罕见的。 They make up about one percent of all cancers. 它们只在所有癌症中占有1% You also probably know that cancer is considered a genetic disease. 你也许还知道癌症是一种基因疾病。 By genetic disease we mean that cancer is caused by oncogenes 基因疾病是指癌症是由于 that are turned on in cancer 原癌基因的触发和 and tumor suppressor genes that are turned off to cause cancer. 抑癌基因的失效所诱发的。 You might think that we learned about oncogenes 你也许会认为我们 是从那先常见癌症, and tumor suppressor genes from common cancers 像是乳腺癌,前列腺癌, like breast cancer and prostate cancer 肺癌中, and lung cancer, 发现原癌基因与抑癌基因的, but you'd be wrong. 但是,那样想你就错了。 We learned about oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes 我们是从那些 极少数的,1%的肉瘤中 for the first time 第一次的, in that itty-bitty little one percent of cancers called sarcoma. 学习到了原癌基因和抑癌基因的。 In 1966, Peyton Rous got the Nobel Prize 1966年,佩顿·劳斯获得了诺贝尔奖 for realizing that chickens 他发现了鸡群中一种 had a transmissible form of sarcoma. 传染性的肉瘤。 Thirty years later, Harold Varmus and Mike Bishop discovered 三十年之后,哈罗德·瓦尔姆斯 与麦克·毕晓普发现了 what that transmissible element was. 那种传染性的因子究竟是什么。 It was a virus 那是一种病毒 carrying a gene, 它携带一种基因, the src oncogene. 那就是肉瘤原癌基因。 Now, I will not tell you that src is the most important oncogene. 现在,我不会说肉瘤原癌基因 是最重要的原癌基因。 I will not tell you 我也不会告诉你 that src is the most frequently turned on oncogene in all of cancer. 肉瘤原癌基因是最常见的原癌基因。 But it was the first oncogene. 但是,它是第一个 被发现的原癌基因。 The exception, the outlier 那个特例,那个异常值, drew our attention and led us to something 它吸引了我们的注意力, 并引领了我们, that taught us very important things about the rest of biology. 教会了我们关于整个 生物领域重要的东西。 Now, TP53 is the most important tumor suppressor gene. 当下,肿瘤抑制蛋白p53 是最重要的抑癌因子。 It is the most frequently turned off tumor suppressor gene 它是最常见的失效 而引发各种肿瘤的 in almost every kind of cancer. 抑癌基因。 But we didn't learn about it from common cancers. 但是我们并不是从 一般的癌症当中发现它的。 We learned about it when doctors Li and Fraumeni 是当李医生和弗劳梅尼医生 were looking at families, 在关注家庭史过程中, and they realized that these families 发现有些家庭患肉瘤病人 概率远高于其他家庭时 had way too many sarcomas. 我们才发现的p53。 I told you that sarcoma is rare. 我告诉过你们了,肉瘤很罕见。 Remember that a one in a million diagnosis, 记住,百万分之一的诊断率, if it happens twice in one family, 如果在同一个家庭中出现两例, is way too common in that family. 那就已经远高于其他家庭了。 The very fact that these are rare 就是因为它们十分罕见的特性, draws our attention 吸引了我们的注意力, and leads us to new kinds of thinking. 并引发了我们作出新的思考。 Now, many of you may say, 你们中的很多人可能会说, and may rightly say, 或者现在正在说, that yeah, Kevin, that's great, 嗯,凯文,这听起来不错, but you're not talking about a bird's wing. 但是你所说的并非是鸟的翅膀, You're not talking about moons floating around some planet Jupiter. 或者是卫星围绕着木星漂行。 This is a person. 这是一个人。 This outlier, this exception, may lead to the advancement of science, 这种特例,这种异常值, 也许会引领我们科学的进步, but this is a person. 但是,这是一个人。 And all I can say 而我能说的只是, is that I know that all too well. 我太了解了。 I have conversations with these patients with rare and deadly diseases. 我与这些患有罕见的, 致命的疾病的患者交流过。 I write about these conversations. 我记录下了我们的对话。 These conversations are terribly fraught. 这些谈话都是极度令人担忧的。 They're fraught with horrible phrases 它们充满了那些可怕的短语 like "I have bad news" or "There's nothing more we can do." 像是“我有一个坏消息” 或是“我们已经尽力了” Sometimes these conversations turn on a single word: 有的时候,这些对话就带来了一个词: "terminal." “晚期。” Silence can also be rather uncomfortable. 沉默也是同等的令人难受的。 Where the blanks are in medicine 医药中的空白和我们在这些 can be just as important 对话中用语的间隙, as the words that we use in these conversations. 是同等重要的。 What are the unknowns? 什么是未知的? What are the experiments that are being done? 有哪些实验是正在做的? Do this little exercise with me. 和我一起做一个小练习。 Up there on the screen, you see this phrase, "no where." 在屏幕上,你可以看到 这个短语,“没有地方“ Notice where the blank is. 注意一下间歇的地方。 If we move that blank one space over 如果我们移动一格那个空隙, "no where" “没有地方” becomes "now here," 就变成了“现在在这” the exact opposite meaning, 正好是相反的意思, just by shifting the blank one space over. 仅仅是移动一个空格。 I'll never forget the night 我永远不会忘记走进 that I walked into one of my patients' rooms. 我的一位病人房间的那个夜晚。 I had been operating long that day 虽然一整天都在做手术, but I still wanted to come and see him. 我还是想要过去看看他。 He was a boy I had diagnosed with a bone cancer a few days before. 他是个孩子,在几天前被诊断出了骨癌。 He and his mother had been meeting with the chemotherapy doctors 他和他的妈妈在那天早些时候 earlier that day, 见了负责他的化疗医生, and he had been admitted to the hospital to begin chemotherapy. 他被允许进入医院开始化疗。 It was almost midnight when I got to his room. 当我进入他的房间的时候, 已经是将近午夜了。 He was asleep, but I found his mother 他睡着了,但是我发现他的妈妈 reading by flashlight 还在他的床边, next to his bed. 在灯光下阅读着。 She came out in the hall to chat with me for a few minutes. 她出来和我在走廊里聊了几分钟。 It turned out that what she had been reading 结果得知她在阅读的是当天 was the protocol that the chemotherapy doctors 化疗医生给她的一份 had given her that day. 协议书。 She had memorized it. 她记住了里面的内容。 She said, "Dr. Jones, you told me 她说,“琼斯医生,你告诉我们, that we don't always win 我们并不是总能战胜 with this type of cancer, 这种癌症, but I've been studying this protocol, and I think I can do it. 但是我很仔细的研究了 这份协议,我认为我们能做到的。 I think I can comply with these very difficult treatments. 我认为我们可以应对 这些非常困难的治疗 I'm going to quit my job. I'm going to move in with my parents. 我要辞掉我的工作。 我会搬去和我的父母一起住。 I'm going to keep my baby safe." 我要保护我的孩子。” I didn't tell her. 我没有告诉她。 I didn't stop to correct her thinking. 我没有纠正她的想法。 She was trusting in a protocol 她正在相信一份协议书, that even if complied with, 即使遵守了, wouldn't necessarily save her son. 也不一定能挽救她的儿子。 I didn't tell her. 我没有告诉她。 I didn't fill in that blank. 我没有填补那个空隙。 But a year and a half later 但是一年半之后, her boy nonetheless died of his cancer. 她的儿子还是死于了癌症。 Should I have told her? 我应该告诉她吗? Now, many of you may say, "So what? 现在,你们中的很多人 可能会说,“那又怎样?” I don't have sarcoma. 我有没有得肉瘤。 No one in my family has sarcoma. 我们家也没有人得肉瘤。 And this is all fine and well, 好吧,这也许是事实, but it probably doesn't matter in my life." 但它可能根本不会 出现在我的人生中。” And you're probably right. 你说的没错。 Sarcoma may not matter a whole lot in your life. 肉瘤也许与你的人生毫无关系。 But where the blanks are in medicine 但是那些存在于医药中的空白, does matter in your life. 是影响你的人生的。 I didn't tell you one dirty little secret. 我没有告诉你们一个肮脏的小秘密。 I told you that in medicine, we test predictions in populations, 我告诉了你们,在医药领域, 我们在人群中进行测试, but I didn't tell you, 但是我没有告诉你们的是, and so often medicine never tells you 在很多情况中,药物不会告诉你 that every time an individual 每当一个个体 encounters medicine, 遇见药物, even if that individual is firmly embedded in the general population, 即便是那个个体深信自己 隐藏于普试人群当中, neither the individual nor the physician knows 个体或是医生都不会知道, where in that population the individual will land. 实验最后降临在谁的头上。 Therefore, every encounter with medicine 因此,每次服用药物, is an experiment. 都是一次实验。 You will be a subject 你就是那个实验中的 in an experiment. 被实验者。 And the outcome will be either a better or a worse result for you. 而实验结果既可能是好的, 也可能是不好的。 As long as medicine works well, 只要药物起作用, we're fine with fast service, 我们就能满足于这种快速的服务, bravado, brimmingly confident conversations. 自满的,充满自信的谈话。 But when things don't work well, 但是当事情进展不顺利, sometimes we want something different. 有时我们就希望得到不同。 A colleague of mine removed a tumor from a patient's limb. 我的一个同事从一位病人的 身上摘下了一个肿瘤。 He was concerned about this tumor. 他很担心这个肿瘤。 In our physician conferences, he talked about his concern 在我们的研讨会上, 他谈论了自己的担忧, that this was a type of tumor 这是一种,有着极高的 that had a high risk for coming back in the same limb. 原位复发率的肿瘤。 But his conversations with the patient 但是他与病患的交流 were exactly what a patient might want: 却完全是病患想听到的那种: brimming with confidence. 充满自信。 He said, "I got it all and you're good to go." 他说:“我已经把它搞定了, 你已经可以出院了。” She and her husband were thrilled. 她和她的丈夫为此十分兴奋。 They went out, celebrated, fancy dinner, opened a bottle of champagne. 他们离开了,庆祝了, 美妙的晚餐,还开了一瓶香槟。 The only problem was a few weeks later, 唯一的问题就在于几周之后, she started to notice another nodule in the same area. 她开始注意 到在同一片区域的另一个结节。 It turned out he hadn't gotten it all, and she wasn't good to go. 结果表明他没搞定肿瘤, 她也还不能出院。 But what happened at this juncture absolutely fascinates me. 但这个时候发生的事, 我却觉得十分有趣。 My colleague came to me and said, 我的同事找到我,并说, "Kevin, would you mind looking after this patient for me?" “凯文,你愿意帮我照顾这个病人吗?” I said, "Why, you know the right thing to do as well as I do. 我说:“为什么,你和我一样, 知道该怎么做啊。 You haven't done anything wrong." 你没做错任何事情。” He said, "Please, just look after this patient for me." 他说,“求你了,就帮我 照看一下这个病人吧。” He was embarrassed -- 他感到脸红-- not by what he had done, 不是为他所做的, but by the conversation that he had had, 而是为他所说的, by the overconfidence. 为他的过度自信。 So I performed a much more invasive surgery 所以我又做了一个 更加侵入性的手术 and had a very different conversation with the patient afterwards. 在之后与病患做了 一个截然不同的对话。 I said, "Most likely I've gotten it all 我说,“最可能的情况是, 我已经完全切除了, and you're most likely good to go, 你应该可以走了, but this is the experiment that we're doing. 但是这是我们的一个实验。 This is what you're going to watch for. 这是你需要继续观察的。 This is what I'm going to watch for. 这也是我需要继续观察的。 And we're going to work together to find out if this surgery will work 然后我们会一起努力, 来探寻手术是否 to get rid of your cancer." 成功解决了你的癌症。“ I can guarantee you, she and her husband 我可以向你们保证, 在这次谈话后, did not crack another bottle of champagne after talking to me. 她和她的丈夫没有 再开一瓶香槟庆祝 But she was now a scientist, 但是,她却变为了一名科学家, not only a subject in her experiment. 而不仅仅是实验中的实验对象。 And so I encourage you 所以,我鼓励你们去 to seek humility and curiosity 在你们的医生那儿, in your physicians. 寻找谦逊精神和好奇心。 Almost 20 billion times each year, 每年大概有200亿次, a person walks into a doctor's office, 当一个人走进医生的办公室, and that person becomes a patient. 然后出来时就变成了一名患者。 You or someone you love will be that patient sometime very soon. 你和你所爱的人很快 也会变成那个患者。 How will you talk to your doctors? 你会如何和你的医生们说? What will you tell them? 你会告诉他们什么? What will they tell you? 他们会告诉你什么? They cannot tell you 他们不能告诉你 what they do not know, 他们也不确定的事, but they can tell you when they don't know 但是他们也可以告诉你 他们不知道, if only you'll ask. 只有当你问的时候。 So please, join the conversation. 所以,请你们加入谈话当中吧。 Thank you. 谢谢。 (Applause) (掌声)

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