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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
The Philippines: an idyllic country
[AI] 菲律宾：一个田园诗般的国家
with some of the clearest water and bluest skies on the planet.
[AI] 有着地球上最清澈的水和最蓝的天空。
It is also the epicenter
[AI] 它也是震中
of one of the fastest-growing HIV epidemics in the world.
[AI] 这是世界上增长最快的艾滋病毒流行病之一。
On the surface. it seems as if we are just a late bloomer.
[AI] 表面上看。似乎我们只是一个晚熟的人。
However. the reasons for our current epidemic
[AI] 然而我们目前流行的原因是什么
are much more complicated
[AI] 要复杂得多
and may foreshadow a global resurgence of HIV.
[AI] 并可能预示着全球艾滋病病毒的死灰复燃。
While overall new cases of HIV continue to drop in the world.
[AI] 而全世界新的艾滋病毒感染病例继续下降。
this trend may be short-lived
[AI] 这一趋势可能是短暂的
when the next wave of more aggressive and resistant viruses arrive.
[AI] 当下一波更具攻击性和抵抗力的病毒到来时。
HIV has a potential to transform itself into a new and different virus
[AI] 艾滋病毒有可能转变成一种新的和不同的病毒
every time it infects a cell.
[AI] 每次它感染一个细胞。
Despite the remarkable progress we've made in reversing the epidemic.
[AI] 尽管我们在扭转疫情方面取得了显著进展。
the truth is that we are just a few viral mutations away from disaster.
[AI] 事实是，我们离灾难只有几次病毒突变。
To appreciate the profound way in which HIV transforms itself
[AI] 欣赏艾滋病毒自我转化的深刻方式
every time it reproduces.
[AI] 每次它繁殖。
let's make a genetic comparison.
[AI] 让我们做一个基因比较。
If we look at the DNA variation among humans of different races
[AI] 如果我们观察不同种族的人类之间的DNA变异
from different continents.
[AI] 来自不同的大陆。
the actual DNA difference is only 0.1 percent.
[AI] 实际的DNA差异只有0.1%。
If we look at the genetic difference
[AI] 如果我们看一下基因差异
between humans. great apes. and rhesus macaques.
[AI] 人与人之间。大猩猩。和恒河猴。
that number is seven percent.
[AI] 这个数字是百分之七。
In contrast. the genetic difference between HIV subtypes
[AI] 相反HIV亚型之间的遗传差异
from different patients
[AI] 来自不同的病人
may be as much as 35 percent.
[AI] 可能高达35%。
Within a person infected with HIV.
[AI] 在感染艾滋病毒的人体内。
the genetic difference between an infecting mother virus
[AI] 感染的母病毒之间的遗传差异
and subsequent daughter viruses
[AI] 和随后的子病毒
has been shown to be as much as five percent.
[AI] 已经证明高达百分之五。
This is the equivalent of a gorilla giving birth to a chimpanzee.
[AI] 这相当于大猩猩产下了黑猩猩。
then to an orangutan.
[AI] 然后是一只猩猩。
then to a baboon.
[AI] 然后是狒狒。
then to any random great ape within its lifetime.
[AI] 然后是任何一只随机出现的大猩猩。
There are nearly 100 subtypes of HIV.
[AI] 艾滋病毒有近100种亚型。
with new subtypes being discovered regularly.
[AI] 定期发现新的亚型。
HIV in the developed world is almost all of one subtype:
[AI] 发达国家的艾滋病毒几乎都是一种亚型：
subtype B.
[AI] B亚型。
Mostly everything we know and do to treat HIV
[AI] 主要是我们所知道和做的治疗HIV的一切
is based on studies on subtype B.
[AI] 基于对B亚型的研究。
even though it only accounts for 12 percent
[AI] 尽管只占12%
of the total number of cases of HIV in the world.
[AI] 占全世界艾滋病毒感染者总数的40%。
But because of the profound genetic difference
[AI] 但是由于基因的巨大差异
among different subtypes.
[AI] 在不同的亚型中。
some subtypes are more likely to become drug-resistant
[AI] 某些亚型更有可能产生耐药性
or progress to AIDS faster.
[AI] 或者进展得更快。
We discovered that the explosion of HIV cases in the Philippines
[AI] 我们发现，在菲律宾，艾滋病病毒感染病例呈爆炸式增长
is due to a shift from the Western subtype B
[AI] 是由于从西方B亚型转变而来
to a more aggressive Southeast Asian subtype AE.
[AI] 更具侵略性的东南亚亚型AE。
We are seeing younger and sicker patients
[AI] 我们看到的是更年轻、病情更严重的患者
with high rates of drug resistance.
[AI] 耐药率高。
Initial encroachment of this subtype
[AI] 该亚型的初始侵犯
is already occurring in developed countries.
[AI] 发达国家已经出现了这种情况。
including Australia. Canada and the United States.
[AI] 包括澳大利亚。加拿大和美国。
We may soon see a similar explosion of cases in these countries.
[AI] 我们可能很快会在这些国家看到类似的病例爆炸。
And while we think that HIV is done
[AI] 虽然我们认为HIV病毒已经感染了
and that the tide has turned for it.
[AI] 潮流已经转向了。
just like with real tides. it can come right back.
[AI] 就像真实的潮汐一样。它可以马上回来。
In the early 1960s. malaria was on the ropes.
[AI] 20世纪60年代初。疟疾已岌岌可危。
As the number of cases dropped.
[AI] 随着案件数量的下降。
people and governments stopped paying attention.
[AI] 人民和政府不再关注。
The result was a deadly resurgence of drug-resistant malaria.
[AI] 结果是耐药性疟疾死灰复燃。
We need to think of HIV
[AI] 我们需要考虑艾滋病毒
not as a single virus that we think we've figured out.
[AI] 不是我们认为我们已经发现的单一病毒。
but as a collection of rapidly evolving and highly unique viruses.
[AI] 但是作为一个快速进化和高度独特的病毒的集合。
each of which can set off the next deadly epidemic.
[AI] 每一种都可能引发下一次致命的流行病。
We are incorporating more powerful and new tools
[AI] 我们正在整合更强大的新工具
to help us detect the next deadly HIV strain.
[AI] 帮助我们发现下一个致命的HIV病毒株。
and this needs to go hand in hand with urgent research
[AI] 这需要与紧迫的研究齐头并进
on the behavior and proper treatment of non-B subtypes.
[AI] 关于非B亚型的行为和适当治疗。
We need to convince our governments
[AI] 我们需要说服我们的政府
and our funding agencies
[AI] 以及我们的资助机构
that HIV is not yet done.
[AI] 艾滋病毒尚未感染。
Over 35 million people have died of HIV.
[AI] 超过3500万人死于艾滋病毒。
We are on the verge of an AIDS-free generation.
[AI] 我们即将迎来无艾滋病的一代。
We need to pay attention.
[AI] 我们需要注意。
We need to remain vigilant
[AI] 我们需要保持警惕
and follow through.
[AI] 并坚持到底。
Otherwise. millions more will die.
[AI] 否则还有数百万人将死去。
Thank you.
[AI] 非常感谢。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）