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仅做 整合 / 美化 处理
I'm really excited to share with you
[AI] 我真的很高兴能和你分享
some findings that really surprise me
[AI] 一些发现让我非常惊讶
about what makes companies succeed the most.
[AI] 关于公司最成功的因素。
what factors actually matter the most for startup success.
[AI] 什么因素对创业成功最为重要。
I believe that the startup organization
[AI] 我相信创业组织
is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.
[AI] 是使世界变得更美好的最伟大的形式之一。
If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives
[AI] 如果你选择一组拥有适当股权激励的人
and organize them in a startup.
[AI] 并组织他们创业。
you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.
[AI] 你可以以前所未有的方式释放人类的潜力。
You get them to achieve unbelievable things.
[AI] 你让他们完成不可思议的事情。
But if the startup organization is so great.
[AI] 但是如果创业组织这么棒的话。
why do so many fail?
[AI] 为什么这么多人失败了？
That's what I wanted to find out.
[AI] 这就是我想知道的。
I wanted to find out what actually matters most
[AI] 我想知道什么才是最重要的
for startup success.
[AI] 为了创业成功。
And I wanted to try to be systematic about it.
[AI] 我想试着系统地描述它。
avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have
[AI] 避免我的一些直觉和可能的误解
from so many companies I've seen over the years.
[AI] 这些年来我见过很多公司。
I wanted to know this
[AI] 我想知道这件事
because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old
[AI] 因为我12岁就开始创业了
when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school.
[AI] 当我在初中的公共汽车站卖糖果的时候。
to high school. when I made solar energy devices.
[AI] 上高中。当我制造太阳能设备的时候。
to college. when I made loudspeakers.
[AI] 去上大学。当我做扩音器的时候。
And when I graduated from college. I started software companies.
[AI] 当我大学毕业的时候。我创办了软件公司。
And 20 years ago. I started Idealab.
[AI] 20年前。我从阿拉布开始。
and in the last 20 years. we started more than 100 companies.
[AI] 在过去的20年里。我们创办了100多家公司。
many successes. and many big failures.
[AI] 许多成功。还有许多重大的失败。
We learned a lot from those failures.
[AI] 我们从这些失败中学到了很多。
So I tried to look across what factors
[AI] 所以我试着看看是什么因素
accounted the most for company success and failure.
[AI] 对公司的成功和失败最重要。
So I looked at these five.
[AI] 所以我看了这五个。
First. the idea.
[AI] 第一这个主意。
I used to think that the idea was everything.
[AI] 我过去认为这个想法就是一切。
I named my company Idealab for how much I worship
[AI] 我把我的公司命名为Idealab是因为我对它的崇拜
the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.
[AI] “啊哈！”当你第一次想到这个想法的时候。
But then over time.
[AI] 但随着时间的推移。
I came to think that maybe the team. the execution. adaptability.
[AI] 我开始想也许是球队。死刑。适应性
that mattered even more than the idea.
[AI] 这比想法更重要。
I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage.
[AI] 我从没想过我会在TED舞台上引用拳击手迈克·泰森的话。
but he once said.
[AI] 但他曾经说过。
"Everybody has a plan. until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)
[AI] “每个人都有一个计划。直到他们被打到脸上。”（众笑）
And I think that's so true about business as well.
[AI] 我认为这对商业也是如此。
So much about a team's execution
[AI] 关于一个团队的执行力有很多
is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.
[AI] 就是它能适应被顾客打在脸上的能力。
The customer is the true reality.
[AI] 客户是真实的现实。
And that's why I came to think
[AI] 这就是我开始思考的原因
that the team maybe was the most important thing.
[AI] 球队也许是最重要的。
Then I started looking at the business model.
[AI] 然后我开始研究商业模式。
Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?
[AI] 公司是否有一条非常清晰的路径来创造客户收入？
That started rising to the top in my thinking
[AI] 这在我的思想中开始上升到顶峰
about maybe what mattered most for success.
[AI] 也许是什么对成功最重要。
Then I looked at the funding.
[AI] 然后我看了看资金。
Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.
[AI] 有时公司会获得大量资金。
Maybe that's the most important thing?
[AI] 也许这是最重要的事情？
And then of course. the timing.
[AI] 然后当然。时机。
Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?
[AI] 这个想法是否太早，世界还没有准备好？
Is it early. as in. you're in advance and you have to educate the world?
[AI] 现在还早吗。如在。你是先驱者，你必须教育全世界？
Is it just right?
[AI] 这是正确的吗？
Or is it too late. and there's already too many competitors?
[AI] 还是太晚了。而且竞争对手已经太多了？
So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors
[AI] 所以我试着仔细研究这五个因素
across many companies.
[AI] 在许多公司。
And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies.
[AI] 我查看了所有100家Idealab公司。
and 100 non-Idealab companies
[AI] 和100家非Idealab公司
to try and come up with something scientific about it.
[AI] 试着想出一些科学的东西。
So first. on these Idealab companies.
[AI] 所以首先。在这些理想的公司。
the top five companies --
[AI] 前五大公司--
Citysearch. CarsDirect. GoTo. NetZero. Tickets.com --
[AI] 城市搜索。CarsDirect。后藤。NetZero。票。com--
those all became billion-dollar successes.
[AI] 这些都成为了数十亿美元的成功。
And the five companies on the bottom --
[AI] 排名靠后的五家公司--
Z.com. Insider Pages. MyLife. Desktop Factory. Peoplelink --
[AI] Z.com。内幕网页。我的生活。桌面工厂。人物链接--
we all had high hopes for. but didn't succeed.
[AI] 我们都对未来寄予厚望。但是没有成功。
So I tried to rank across all of those attributes
[AI] 所以我试着对所有这些属性进行排名
how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.
[AI] 我觉得这些公司在每个维度上都得分了。
And then for non-Idealab companies. I looked at wild successes.
[AI] 然后是非Idealab公司。我看到了巨大的成功。
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.
[AI] 比如Airbnb、Instagram、Uber、Youtube和LinkedIn。
And some failures:
[AI] 还有一些失败：
Webvan. Kozmo. Pets.com
[AI] Webvan。科兹莫。宠物。通用域名格式
Flooz and Friendster.
[AI] 弗洛兹和弗林斯特。
The bottom companies had intense funding.
[AI] 底层公司拥有大量资金。
they even had business models in some cases.
[AI] 在某些情况下，他们甚至有商业模式。
but they didn't succeed.
[AI] 但他们没有成功。
I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most
[AI] 我试着看看哪些因素实际上是最重要的
for success and failure across all of these companies.
[AI] 所有这些公司的成功和失败。
and the results really surprised me.
[AI] 结果真的让我吃惊。
The number one thing was timing.
[AI] 第一件事是时机。
Timing accounted for 42 percent
[AI] 时间占42%
of the difference between success and failure.
[AI] 成功与失败的区别。
Team and execution came in second.
[AI] 球队和执行力排名第二。
and the idea.
[AI] 还有这个想法。
the differentiability of the idea. the uniqueness of the idea.
[AI] 这个想法的差异性。这个想法的独特性。
that actually came in third.
[AI] 这实际上排在第三位。
Now. this isn't absolutely definitive.
[AI] 现在这不是绝对确定的。
it's not to say that the idea isn't important.
[AI] 这并不是说这个想法不重要。
but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.
[AI] 但是这个想法并不是最重要的，这让我非常惊讶。
Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.
[AI] 有时，当它真正计时时，它更重要。
The last two. business model and funding. made sense to me actually.
[AI] 最后两个。商业模式和资金。对我来说是有道理的。
I think business model makes sense to be that low
[AI] 我认为这么低的商业模式是有道理的
because you can start out without a business model
[AI] 因为你可以在没有商业模式的情况下起步
and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.
[AI] 如果您的客户要求您的产品，请稍后添加一个。
And funding. I think as well.
[AI] 和资金。我想也是。
if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction.
[AI] 如果你一开始资金不足，但你正在获得动力。
especially in today's age.
[AI] 特别是在今天这个时代。
it's very. very easy to get intense funding.
[AI] 这很有趣。很容易获得大量资金。
So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.
[AI] 现在让我给你们一些具体的例子。
So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.
[AI] 所以就拿大家都知道的Airbnb这样的疯狂成功来说吧。
Well. that company was famously passed on by many smart investors
[AI] 好那家公司被许多精明的投资者所继承，这是出了名的
because people thought.
[AI] 因为人们认为。
"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."
[AI] “没有人会把家里的空间出租给陌生人。”
Of course. people proved that wrong.
[AI] 当然人们证明这是错误的。
But one of the reasons it succeeded.
[AI] 但它成功的原因之一是。
aside from a good business model. a good idea. great execution.
[AI] 除了良好的商业模式之外。好主意。执行力很好。
is the timing.
[AI] 这就是时机。
That company came out right during the height of the recession
[AI] 那家公司在经济衰退最严重的时候脱颖而出
when people really needed extra money.
[AI] 当人们真的需要额外的钱的时候。
and that maybe helped people overcome
[AI] 这或许有助于人们克服困难
their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.
[AI] 他们反对把自己的房子出租给陌生人。
Same thing with Uber.
[AI] 优步也是如此。
Uber came out.
[AI] 优步出来了。
incredible company. incredible business model.
[AI] 难以置信的公司。难以置信的商业模式。
great execution. too.
[AI] 执行力很好。也
But the timing was so perfect
[AI] 但是时机太完美了
for their need to get drivers into the system.
[AI] 因为他们需要让司机进入系统。
Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very. very important.
[AI] 司机们在寻找额外的钱；这是非常有趣的。非常重要。
Some of our early successes. Citysearch. came out when people needed web pages.
[AI] 我们早期的一些成功。城市搜索。当人们需要网页的时候就出现了。
GoTo.com. which we announced actually at TED in 1998.
[AI] 后藤。通用域名格式。这是我们1998年在TED上宣布的。
was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.
[AI] 当时，很多公司都在寻找经济高效的交通方式。
We thought the idea was so great.
[AI] 我们觉得这个主意太棒了。
but actually. the timing was probably maybe more important.
[AI] 但事实上。时间可能更重要。
And then some of our failures.
[AI] 然后是我们的一些失败。
We started a company called Z.com. it was an online entertainment company.
[AI] 我们创办了一家名为Z.com的公司。这是一家在线娱乐公司。
We were so excited about it --
[AI] 我们对此非常兴奋--
we raised enough money. we had a great business model.
[AI] 我们筹集了足够的钱。我们有一个很好的商业模式。
we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.
[AI] 我们甚至签下了非常优秀的好莱坞天才加入公司。
But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.
[AI] 但在1999-2000年间，宽带普及率太低。
It was too hard to watch video content online.
[AI] 在线观看视频内容太难了。
you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff.
[AI] 你必须在你的浏览器中放入编解码器，然后做所有这些事情。
and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.
[AI] 该公司最终于2003年倒闭。
Just two years later.
[AI] 仅仅两年后。
when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash
[AI] 当AdobeFlash解决了编解码器问题时
and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America.
[AI] 当美国宽带普及率超过50%时。
YouTube was perfectly timed.
[AI] YouTube正是时候。
Great idea. but unbelievable timing.
[AI] 好主意。但是难以置信的时机。
In fact. YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.
[AI] 事实上YouTube刚起步时甚至没有商业模式。
It wasn't even certain that that would work out.
[AI] 甚至不确定那会不会成功。
But that was beautifully. beautifully timed.
[AI] 但那很漂亮。时间安排得很好。
So what I would say. in summary.
[AI] 所以我想说。总之。
is execution definitely matters a lot.
[AI] 执行肯定很重要。
The idea matters a lot.
[AI] 这个想法很重要。
But timing might matter even more.
[AI] 但时机可能更为重要。
And the best way to really assess timing
[AI] 而真正评估时机的最佳方法
is to really look at whether consumers are really ready
[AI] 就是要看消费者是否真的准备好了
for what you have to offer them.
[AI] 为了你能提供给他们的东西。
And to be really. really honest about it.
[AI] 而且是真的。真的很诚实。
not be in denial about any results that you see.
[AI] 不要否认你看到的任何结果。
because if you have something you love. you want to push it forward.
[AI] 因为如果你有你喜欢的东西。你想把它向前推进。
but you have to be very. very honest about that factor on timing.
[AI] 但是你必须非常小心。在时间上，我对这个因素非常诚实。
As I said earlier.
[AI] 正如我刚才所说。
I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.
[AI] 我认为创业公司可以改变世界，让世界变得更美好。
I hope some of these insights
[AI] 我希望能从中获得一些见解
can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio.
[AI] 也许可以帮助你获得更高的成功率。
and thus make something great come to the world
[AI] 从而使一些伟大的东西来到这个世界上
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
[AI] 否则就不会发生这种情况。
Thank you very much. you've been a great audience.
[AI] 非常感谢你。你是一个伟大的观众。
(Applause)
[AI] （掌声）